Tucker Davidson

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 31 LHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	33	17	120	3.74	4.39	20.1%	9.2%	0.7	K 17.8% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.69
2025	29	AAAMIL	6	6	25	4.68	2.46	22.9%	6.4%	—	K 19.7% · BB 5.8% · FIP 2.66
2026	30	AAAPHI	32	15	99	5.66	4.80	18.5%	13.2%	—	K 15.9% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.85
2027PROJ	31	MLBPHI	24	24	152	5.15	5.08	17.5%	11.5%	-0.3
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBPHI	8	8	52	5.26	5.33	16.7%	11.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBPHI	11	11	71	5.47	5.61	15.8%	12.3%	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

Whiff%40

K%32

xwOBA vs20

FB Velo10

CompsJoey Lucchesi (age 31) · Santiago Gutierrez (age 31) · Everett Teaford (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113122vR 130

ERA5.15

FIP5.08

K%17.5%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%6.0%

Proj IP152

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 152 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.4

Whiff%

p4023.9%

p3219.5%

xwOBA vs

p200.348

FB (31%)

SI (16%)

CU (12%)

SL (39%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	20	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	11	1	30	126	32	4	1	9%	2.7	17.3%	4.0%	13.3%	1.1%	1.52	2.75	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	11	1	30	126	32	4	1	9%	2.7	25.4%	3.2%	22.2%	0.8%	1.52	1.79	—
2017	21	A MLE	Rome Braves	31	12	104	422	101	30	4	39%	3.3	17.7%	8.4%	9.3%	1.6%	2.60	3.56	—
2017	21	A RAW	Rome Braves	31	12	104	422	101	30	4	39%	3.3	23.9%	7.1%	16.8%	0.9%	2.60	2.52	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	Florida Fire Frogs	24	24	118	514	99	58	5	100%	4.9	14.8%	13.0%	1.9%	1.2%	4.18	4.18	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	Florida Fire Frogs	24	24	118	514	99	58	5	100%	4.9	19.3%	11.3%	8.0%	1.0%	4.18	3.45	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	130	531	134	54	5	100%	5.2	20.6%	11.1%	9.5%	1.3%	2.15	3.46	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	130	531	134	54	5	100%	5.2	25.2%	10.2%	15.1%	0.9%	2.15	2.78	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	1	1	2	13	2	4	1	100%	1.7	15.4%	30.8%	-15.4%	7.7%	10.80	9.92	-0.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	1	1	2	13	2	4	1	100%	1.7	15.4%	30.8%	-15.4%	7.7%	10.80	15.70	-0.2
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	8	43	167	46	13	5	100%	5.4	25.5%	7.9%	17.6%	3.1%	2.30	3.66	+0.6
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	8	43	167	46	13	5	100%	5.4	27.5%	7.8%	19.8%	3.0%	2.30	3.38	+0.8
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	132	588	129	59	21	96%	4.9	20.0%	10.2%	9.7%	3.8%	5.44	4.82	+0.1
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	132	588	129	59	21	96%	4.9	21.9%	10.0%	11.9%	3.6%	5.44	4.55	+0.5
2023	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	38	1	51	236	46	17	6	3%	1.4	19.5%	7.2%	12.3%	2.7%	5.96	3.88	+0.4
2023	27	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	38	1	51	236	46	17	6	3%	1.4	19.5%	7.2%	12.3%	2.5%	5.96	3.82	+0.4
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	17	120	522	105	48	17	52%	3.6	17.8%	8.2%	9.6%	3.7%	3.74	4.69	+0.3
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	17	120	522	105	48	17	52%	3.6	17.8%	8.2%	9.6%	3.7%	3.74	4.69	+0.3
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	17	120	522	105	48	17	52%	3.6	20.1%	9.2%	10.9%	3.3%	3.74	4.39	+0.7
2025	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	6	6	25	109	25	7	1	100%	4.2	19.7%	5.8%	13.9%	0.9%	4.68	2.66	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	6	6	25	109	25	7	1	100%	4.2	19.7%	5.8%	13.9%	0.9%	4.68	2.66	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	6	6	25	109	25	7	1	100%	4.2	22.9%	6.4%	16.5%	0.9%	4.68	2.46	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	32	15	99	455	84	60	12	47%	3.1	15.9%	11.9%	4.0%	2.9%	5.66	4.85	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	32	15	99	455	84	60	12	47%	3.1	15.9%	11.9%	4.0%	2.9%	5.66	4.85	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	32	15	99	455	84	60	12	47%	3.1	18.5%	13.2%	5.3%	2.6%	5.66	4.80	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			56	17	130	594	100	66	17	30%	2.3	16.8%	11.1%	5.7%	2.9%	5.76	4.79	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	PHI	24	24	152	642	112	73	19	100%	6.3	17.5%	11.5%	6.0%	3.0%	5.15	5.08	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	PHI	22	22	141	595	99	70	19	100%	6.4	16.7%	11.8%	4.8%	3.2%	5.26	5.33	-0.7
2029	33	MLB MLE	PHI	21	21	129	546	86	67	19	100%	6.2	15.8%	12.3%	3.5%	3.5%	5.47	5.61	-1.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	52	220	37	26	7	100%	6.5	16.7%	11.8%	4.8%	3.2%	5.26	5.33	-0.2
2029	33	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	71	300	47	37	10	100%	6.5	15.8%	12.3%	3.5%	3.5%	5.47	5.61	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		76	37	253	1114	184	129	34	49%	3.3	16.5%	11.6%	5.0%	3.1%	5.58	4.87	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		60	29	200	881	146	102	27	48%	3.3	16.5%	11.6%	5.0%	3.1%	5.58	4.87	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		236	136	854	3683	677	364	90	58%	3.6	18.4%	9.9%	8.5%	2.5%	3.93	4.15	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	32	200	863	159	85	21	58%	3.6	18.4%	9.9%	8.5%	2.5%	3.93	4.15	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tucker Davidson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	17.5%	11.5%	3.0%	—	5.46	16.3%	4.2%	270	+0.38	—	—	—
Joey Lucchesi L 2024 · 4.73 FIP	31	SP-	4.73	14.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.293	3.65	22.6%	15.8%	102	-1.08	3.12	817	67
Santiago Gutierrez L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP-	3.95	15.0%	8.2%	2.0%	.366	6.54	17.1%	3.7%	46	+2.59	3.90	341	63
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	62
Brian Tallet L 2009 · 4.45 FIP	31	SP-	4.45	16.7%	9.8%	2.8%	.294	6.14	14.7%	5.2%	91	+1.69	2.59	443	61
Anthony Vasquez L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	31	SW	4.64	17.1%	8.9%	3.4%	.322	6.00	14.6%	7.3%	85	+1.36	4.02	671	57
Sean Nolin L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	31	SP-	4.54	20.4%	8.9%	3.7%	.316	5.87	19.3%	12.9%	23	+1.33	3.79	309	56
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	55
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	55
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	54
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	53
Irwin Delgado L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	30	SP	4.73	15.6%	9.5%	3.2%	.404	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	383	53
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	52
Alejandro Astorga L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	14.4%	8.2%	2.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	311	52
Andy Otero L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	30	SW	4.36	14.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	200	51
Chris Narveson L 2011 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP	4.01	18.0%	9.2%	2.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	625	50
Carlos Teller L 2017 · 4.63 FIP	30	SP	4.63	12.2%	9.6%	2.5%	.322	4.90	13.1%	-1.1%	60	+0.27	3.75	333	50
Marco Tovar L 2019 · 4.78 FIP	30	SP	4.78	12.6%	5.6%	3.7%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	327	48
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	48
Kelvin Marte L 2019 · 5.25 FIP	31	SP	5.25	12.0%	10.8%	3.3%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	360	48
Daniel Rodriguez L 2016 · 4.46 FIP	31	SP	4.46	19.3%	11.1%	2.9%	.333	4.32	16.9%	8.2%	226	-0.14	2.89	391	46

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	92	16.7%	11.7%	1.21	5.40
Charlie Bishop ('52-'55, -1 WAR*)	1.5	98	16.9%*	11.2%*	1.30*	5.49*
Bob McGraw ('17-'29, -2 WAR*)	3.0	99	16.8%*	11.0%*	1.21*	5.01*
Frank Bertaina ('64-'70, -1 WAR*)	2.1	69	19.0%*	11.8%*	1.24*	5.03*
Mac Suzuki ('02)	2.3	93	15.4%	12.5%	1.29	5.72
Brandon Duckworth ('08)	2.6	73	16.4%	9.9%	1.11	5.28
Mike Mimbs ('97)	1.3	88	14.9%	11.9%	0.99	5.03