Griffin Canning

P San Diego Padres

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs MLB peak 1.0 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MLBLAA	32	31	172	5.19	5.07	17.6%	8.8%	-0.3
2025	29	MLBNYM	16	16	76	3.77	4.00	21.3%	10.7%	0.8
2026	30	MIX2 levels	35	16	104	5.38	4.61	22.8%	11.5%	-0.1	K 22.3% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.54
2027PROJ	31	MLBSD	24	24	144	4.82	4.81	21.3%	10.5%	0.1
2028PROJ	32	MLBSD	22	22	133	4.97	5.07	20.5%	10.9%	-0.3
2029PROJ	33	MLBSD	20	20	122	5.20	5.35	19.6%	11.4%	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo51

Whiff%51

K%51

xwOBA vs34

CompsChase Anderson (age 31) · Daisuke Matsuzaka (age 31) · Tim Adleman (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.82

FIP4.81

K%21.3%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%10.7%

Proj IP144

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p5125.5%

p5122.3%

xwOBA vs

p340.331

CH+5.3 (23%)

CU (6%)

CT-1.1 (4%)

FB-2.0 (35%)

SL-2.5 (31%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	113	475	125	44	8	100%	4.5	21.8%	10.0%	11.8%	2.1%	3.65	3.69	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	113	475	125	44	8	100%	4.5	26.3%	9.3%	17.1%	1.7%	3.65	2.98	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	106	444	113	32	14	95%	5.1	25.0%	7.2%	17.8%	3.1%	3.98	3.60	+1.7
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	106	444	113	32	14	95%	5.1	25.5%	7.2%	18.2%	3.2%	3.98	3.59	+1.7
2020	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	11	11	56	238	56	23	8	100%	5.1	23.5%	9.7%	13.9%	3.3%	3.99	4.15	+0.5
2020	24	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	11	11	56	238	56	23	8	100%	5.1	23.5%	9.7%	13.9%	3.4%	3.99	4.18	+0.5
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	65	292	66	33	15	93%	4.3	22.4%	10.1%	12.3%	5.0%	6.26	5.21	-0.2
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	65	292	66	33	15	93%	4.3	22.6%	11.3%	11.3%	5.1%	6.26	5.61	-0.5
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	132	558	149	37	22	92%	5.3	25.9%	6.5%	19.4%	4.0%	4.23	3.95	+1.5
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	132	558	149	37	22	92%	5.3	26.7%	6.6%	20.1%	3.9%	4.23	3.85	+1.7
2024	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	32	31	172	739	130	65	31	97%	5.4	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	4.1%	5.19	4.99	-0.2
2024	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	32	31	172	739	130	65	31	97%	5.4	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	4.1%	5.19	4.99	-0.2
2024	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	32	31	172	739	130	65	31	97%	5.4	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	4.2%	5.19	5.07	-0.3
2025	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	16	16	76	328	70	35	8	100%	4.8	21.3%	10.7%	10.7%	2.4%	3.77	3.99	+0.8
2025	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	16	16	76	328	70	35	8	100%	4.8	21.3%	10.7%	10.7%	2.4%	3.77	3.99	+0.8
2025	29	MLB RAW	New York Mets	16	16	76	328	70	35	8	100%	4.8	21.3%	10.7%	10.7%	2.4%	3.77	4.00	+0.8
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	16	104	460	105	53	16	46%	3.0	22.3%	11.3%	11.0%	3.4%	5.38	4.54	+0.0
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	16	104	460	105	53	16	46%	3.0	22.3%	11.3%	11.0%	3.4%	5.38	4.54	+0.0
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	16	104	460	105	53	16	46%	3.0	22.8%	11.5%	11.3%	3.5%	5.38	4.61	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			145	121	673	2893	640	257	111	83%	4.6	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	3.8%	4.79	4.49	+3.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	SD	24	24	144	608	129	64	20	100%	6.0	21.3%	10.5%	10.7%	3.3%	4.82	4.81	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	SD	22	22	133	561	115	61	20	100%	6.0	20.5%	10.9%	9.6%	3.5%	4.97	5.07	-0.3
2029	33	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	122	515	101	59	20	100%	6.1	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.8%	5.20	5.35	-0.6
2028	32	MLB CTX	SD	22	22	133	562	115	61	20	100%	6.0	20.5%	10.9%	9.6%	3.5%	4.97	5.07	-0.3
2029	33	MLB CTX	SD	20	20	122	515	101	59	20	100%	6.1	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.8%	5.20	5.35	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		187	163	928	3969	856	377	150	87%	5.0	21.6%	9.5%	12.1%	3.8%	4.87	4.56	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	35	200	856	185	81	32	87%	4.9	21.6%	9.5%	12.1%	3.8%	4.87	4.56	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		180	156	824	3534	783	320	123	87%	4.6	22.2%	9.1%	13.1%	3.5%	4.56	4.29	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	38	200	857	190	78	30	87%	4.6	22.2%	9.1%	13.1%	3.5%	4.56	4.29	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Griffin Canning (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	21.3%	10.5%	3.3%	—	5.20	20.1%	8.9%	255	+0.39	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	31	SP	4.39	20.9%	8.1%	3.7%	.259	5.39	19.2%	10.0%	218	+1.00	3.30	1,260	68
Daisuke Matsuzaka R 2012 · 5.55 FIP	31	SP	5.55	19.1%	9.3%	5.2%	.329	3.83	21.1%	9.5%	122	-1.72	3.77	790	68
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	63
Miguel González R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.23	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.30	3.72	905	63
Hideki Irabu R 2000 · 4.38 FIP	31	SP	4.38	17.0%	5.7%	3.6%	.374	5.19	17.2%	11.0%	64	+0.81	3.78	514	61
Brad Peacock R 2019 · 4.22 FIP	31	SP-	4.22	25.1%	8.1%	4.0%	.261	4.15	22.8%	12.5%	96	-0.07	2.97	748	61
Orlando Hernandez R 2001 · 5.30 FIP	31	SP	5.30	18.6%	9.9%	4.6%	.256	3.78	20.4%	13.1%	231	-1.52	3.35	1,315	59
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	59
Joe Biagini R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	31	SP	4.80	18.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.309	4.53	16.4%	6.6%	39	-0.27	2.66	624	59
Scott Carroll R 2016 · 4.94 FIP	31	SP	4.94	10.5%	8.6%	3.0%	.289	5.71	14.4%	5.8%	22	+0.77	3.92	377	58
Chris Heston R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	29	SP-	5.88	13.6%	10.0%	4.9%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	321	58
Yu Darvish R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	31	SP	4.50	27.2%	11.7%	4.0%	.282	3.48	30.5%	24.0%	421	-1.02	1.97	1,798	57
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	57
Jeremy Hefner R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	16.8%	9.1%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	322	57
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	57
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	57
Mike Wright Jr. R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	31	SP-	3.89	19.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.237	4.79	14.4%	1.1%	56	+0.90	3.76	725	56
Rolando Arrojo R 2000 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	16.1%	8.0%	3.1%	.291	3.68	16.4%	9.2%	185	-0.79	3.50	700	55
Kenta Maeda R 2019 · 3.68 FIP	31	SP-	3.68	27.1%	8.0%	3.4%	.240	3.44	27.8%	22.0%	173	-0.24	2.87	1,092	55
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.4	107	21.5%	9.7%	1.44	4.86
Slick Castleman ('34-'39, 2 WAR*)	2.9	117	19.2%*	9.8%*	1.45*	4.67*
Cecil Ferguson ('06-'11, 3 WAR*)	3.5	116	21.0%*	10.4%*	1.26*	5.12*
John Tsitouris ('57-'68, 1 WAR*)	3.3	110	19.5%*	9.7%*	1.30*	4.80*
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61