Manuel Rodríguez
P
Tampa Bay Rays
Age 29
RHP
5'11" / 205 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10091vR 82
ERA3.54
FIP3.53
K%23.8%
BB%6.1%
K-BB%17.7%
ROS IP59
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8496.9
Whiff%
p5425.9%
K%
p4020.7%
xwOBA vs
p900.274
SL+6.9 (50%)
SI (34%)
FB (50%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | AAA | Leones de Yucatan | 50 | 0 | 49 | 198 | 45 | 20 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 1.84 | 2.75 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | AAA | Leones de Yucatan | 50 | 0 | 49 | 198 | 45 | 20 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 0.0% | 1.84 | 2.49 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | AAA | Leones de Yucatan | 19 | 0 | 16 | 75 | 15 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | 17.6% | 18.2% | -0.6% | 2.2% | 5.06 | 5.12 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | AAA | Leones de Yucatan | 19 | 0 | 16 | 75 | 15 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 0.8 | 20.0% | 17.3% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 5.06 | 4.47 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | South Bend Cubs | 4 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.7 | 14.7% | 14.7% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.40 | 6.95 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | South Bend Cubs | 4 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.7 | 14.7% | 14.7% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.40 | 7.75 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | South Bend Cubs | 32 | 0 | 40 | 214 | 64 | 34 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.1% | 18.7% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 7.59 | 4.48 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | South Bend Cubs | 32 | 0 | 40 | 214 | 64 | 34 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.9% | 15.9% | 14.0% | 0.9% | 7.59 | 3.10 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 35 | 0 | 47 | 197 | 65 | 17 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.4% | 9.9% | 15.5% | 0.7% | 3.45 | 2.59 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 35 | 0 | 47 | 197 | 65 | 17 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 33.0% | 8.6% | 24.4% | 0.5% | 3.45 | 1.70 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 38 | 170 | 43 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 3.52 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 38 | 170 | 43 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 2.4% | 3.52 | 4.01 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 23 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.0% | 15.8% | -1.8% | 1.7% | 4.15 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 23 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.7% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.15 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 50 | 0 | 56 | 247 | 80 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.5% | 10.6% | 17.9% | 0.7% | 3.99 | 2.42 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 50 | 0 | 56 | 247 | 80 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.4% | 10.1% | 22.3% | 0.8% | 3.99 | 2.05 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 62 | 254 | 62 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 6.4% | 16.7% | 2.0% | 1.73 | 3.07 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 62 | 254 | 62 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 6.3% | 18.1% | 2.0% | 1.73 | 2.92 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 32 | 126 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 5.0% | 15.7% | 1.7% | 2.27 | 2.94 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 32 | 126 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 4.8% | 15.9% | 1.6% | 2.27 | 2.85 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | TB | 38 | 0 | 40 | 167 | 40 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 6.1% | 17.7% | 2.3% | 3.54 | 3.53 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TB | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 54 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 6.7% | 16.3% | 2.6% | 3.74 | 3.82 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TB | 49 | 0 | 52 | 218 | 49 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | TB | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 52 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 6.7% | 16.3% | 2.6% | 3.74 | 3.82 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | TB | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 46 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 202 | 0 | 201 | 848 | 180 | 66 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 13.5% | 2.4% | 3.42 | 3.63 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 201 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 179 | 66 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 13.5% | 2.4% | 3.42 | 3.63 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 347 | 0 | 369 | 1608 | 361 | 189 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 1.5% | 3.53 | 3.51 | +8.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 0 | 200 | 871 | 195 | 102 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 1.5% | 3.53 | 3.51 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Manuel Rodríguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.53 | 23.8% | 6.1% | 2.3% | — | 3.95 | 22.7% | 15.7% | 107 | +0.42 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.35 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 3.85 | 23.5% | 13.9% | 181 | +0.50 | 1.74 | 468 | 82 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.05 | 27.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.66 | 22.6% | 14.0% | 137 | +1.61 | 3.05 | 176 | 80 |
| Matt Bush R 2027 · 2.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.86 | 24.7% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .232 | 3.96 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 75 | +1.10 | 2.86 | 249 | 78 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 78 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.27 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.34 | 13.0% | -0.4% | 31 | +2.07 | 3.27 | 150 | 78 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 77 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2028 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 77 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.09 | 27.2% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .190 | 3.23 | 24.4% | 14.2% | 43 | +0.14 | 2.16 | 186 | 77 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 77 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 2.78 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.78 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .307 | 4.22 | 19.6% | 10.0% | 127 | +1.44 | 2.78 | 596 | 77 |
| Jay Jackson R 2024 · 2.41 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.41 | 24.1% | 6.2% | 1.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.41 | 261 | 77 |
| Anthony Swarzak R 2026 · 2.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.83 | 21.3% | 4.9% | 1.7% | .386 | 3.64 | 26.1% | 19.8% | 181 | +0.81 | 2.45 | 260 | 76 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 76 |
| Austin Adams R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.39 | 21.1% | 6.1% | 2.4% | .376 | 6.16 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 60 | +2.77 | 3.39 | 162 | 76 |
| C.C. Lee R 2025 · 2.50 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.50 | 23.9% | 7.0% | 1.0% | .323 | 2.98 | 30.9% | 21.5% | 63 | +0.48 | 2.50 | 121 | 76 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 18.9% | 4.8% | 2.7% | .295 | 3.16 | 21.2% | 15.9% | 172 | -0.46 | 2.82 | 316 | 75 |
| Matt Magill R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.45 | 27.9% | 7.4% | 3.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 259 | 75 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 75 |
| Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.23 | 25.5% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .283 | 3.66 | 20.5% | 12.4% | 148 | +0.43 | 2.72 | 530 | 74 |
| Rafael Montero R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.41 | 26.4% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .222 | 3.23 | 24.6% | 16.3% | 185 | -0.18 | 2.38 | 663 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 49 | 23.0% | 6.8% | 1.02 | 3.76 |
| Joe Blanton ('17) | 3 | 67 | 24.2% | 6.7% | 1.08 | 3.32 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |
| Trevor Gott ('23) | 4 | 51 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 0.79 | 3.97 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Ryan Madson ('18) | 4 | 60 | 23.6% | 6.1% | 0.79 | 3.19 |