Manuel Rodríguez

P Durham Bulls

Age 30 RHP 5'11" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027 ILForty Man (40M)

Overview

AAARP40M40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	63	0	62	1.73	2.92	24.4%	6.3%	1.2	K 22.9% · BB 6.1% · FIP 3.05
2025	28	MIX2 levels	33	0	32	2.27	2.85	20.6%	4.8%	0.6	K 20.7% · BB 5.0% · FIP 2.86
2026	29	MIX4 levels	19	1	18	5.00	4.77	33.3%	13.8%	-0.0	K 33.3% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.56
2027PROJ	30	MLBTB	42	0	44	3.66	3.68	23.2%	5.9%	0.5
2028PROJ92% MLB	31	MLBTB	38	0	40	3.81	3.91	22.4%	6.2%	0.3
2029PROJ93% MLB	32	MLBTB	30	0	31	4.03	4.17	21.6%	6.6%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo84

K%40

CompsJumbo Diaz (age 30) · Neil Wagner (age 29) · Mike Fyhrie (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10395vR 87

ERA3.66

FIP3.68

K%23.2%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%17.3%

Proj IP49

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p4020.7%

xwOBA vs

p900.274

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	18	AAA MLE	Leones de Yucatan	50	0	49	198	45	20	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.6%	9.4%	0.0%	1.84	2.75	—
2015	18	AAA RAW	Leones de Yucatan	50	0	49	198	45	20	0	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	0.0%	1.84	2.49	—
2016	19	AAA MLE	Leones de Yucatan	19	0	16	75	15	13	1	0%	0.8	17.6%	18.2%	-0.6%	1.8%	5.06	4.88	—
2016	19	AAA RAW	Leones de Yucatan	19	0	16	75	15	13	1	0%	0.8	20.0%	17.3%	2.7%	1.3%	5.06	4.47	—
2017	20	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	4	0	7	34	5	5	2	0%	1.7	14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	5.9%	5.40	6.95	—
2017	20	A RAW	South Bend Cubs	4	0	7	34	5	5	2	0%	1.7	14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	5.9%	5.40	7.75	—
2018	21	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	32	0	40	214	64	34	2	0%	1.3	22.1%	18.7%	3.4%	1.4%	7.59	4.36	—
2018	21	A RAW	South Bend Cubs	32	0	40	214	64	34	2	0%	1.3	29.9%	15.9%	14.0%	0.9%	7.59	3.10	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	35	0	47	197	65	17	1	0%	1.3	25.4%	9.9%	15.5%	0.7%	3.45	2.58	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	35	0	47	197	65	17	1	0%	1.3	33.0%	8.6%	24.4%	0.5%	3.45	1.70	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	38	170	43	23	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	15.5%	6.6%	3.0%	3.52	4.84	-0.1
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	38	170	43	23	4	0%	1.0	25.3%	13.5%	11.8%	2.4%	3.52	4.01	+0.2
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	0	22	93	23	12	3	0%	1.0	14.0%	15.8%	-1.8%	1.8%	4.15	4.92	-0.1
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	0	22	93	23	12	3	0%	1.0	24.7%	12.9%	11.8%	3.2%	4.15	4.44	+0.0
2023	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	50	0	56	247	80	25	2	0%	1.1	27.9%	9.1%	18.7%	0.8%	3.99	2.33	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	50	0	56	247	80	25	2	0%	1.1	32.4%	10.1%	22.3%	0.8%	3.99	2.05	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	62	254	62	16	5	0%	1.0	22.9%	6.1%	16.8%	2.0%	1.73	3.05	+1.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	62	254	62	16	5	0%	1.0	22.9%	6.1%	16.8%	2.0%	1.73	3.05	+1.1
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	62	254	62	16	5	0%	1.0	24.4%	6.3%	18.1%	2.0%	1.73	2.92	+1.2
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	32	126	26	6	2	0%	1.0	20.7%	5.0%	15.7%	1.6%	2.27	2.86	+0.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	32	126	26	6	2	0%	1.0	20.7%	5.0%	15.7%	1.6%	2.27	2.86	+0.6
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	32	126	26	6	2	0%	1.0	20.6%	4.8%	15.9%	1.6%	2.27	2.85	+0.6
2026	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	1	18	87	29	12	4	5%	0.9	33.3%	13.8%	19.5%	4.6%	5.00	4.56	-0.0
2026	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	1	18	87	29	12	4	5%	0.9	33.3%	13.8%	19.5%	4.6%	5.00	4.56	-0.0
2026	29	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	1	18	87	29	12	4	5%	0.9	33.3%	13.8%	19.5%	4.6%	5.00	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			111	0	106	454	93	43	10	0%	1.0	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	2.2%	2.97	3.79	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	TB	42	0	44	186	43	11	5	0%	1.0	23.2%	5.9%	17.3%	2.6%	3.66	3.68	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	TB	42	0	44	187	42	12	5	0%	1.1	22.4%	6.2%	16.2%	2.8%	3.81	3.91	+0.3
2029	32	MLB MLE	TB	32	0	33	141	30	9	4	0%	1.0	21.6%	6.6%	15.0%	3.1%	4.03	4.17	+0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	TB	38	0	40	169	38	11	5	0%	1.1	22.4%	6.2%	16.2%	2.8%	3.81	3.91	+0.3
2029	32	MLB CTX	TB	30	0	31	131	28	9	4	0%	1.0	21.6%	6.6%	15.0%	3.1%	4.03	4.17	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		179	0	177	755	160	62	19	0%	1.0	21.1%	8.3%	12.9%	2.5%	3.35	3.72	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		202	0	200	852	180	70	21	0%	1.0	21.1%	8.3%	12.9%	2.5%	3.35	3.72	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		366	1	387	1695	388	196	27	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.6%	11.3%	1.6%	3.60	3.53	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		189	1	200	875	200	101	14	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.6%	11.3%	1.6%	3.60	3.53	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 9 IPFIP 4.13 → 4.63 (+0.50)K% 33.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.860	28.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×0.900	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.44%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.89%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.13 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 25 IPFIP 2.57 → 2.88 (+0.31)K% 29.2% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.17%	—	×0.860	25.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×0.900	5.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.061	×1.100	2.16%

Result: FIP 2.57 → 2.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAADurham Bulls · 56 IPFIP 2.09 → 2.33 (+0.24)K% 32.4% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.39%	—	×0.860	27.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.12%	—	×0.900	9.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷1.137	×1.100	0.78%

Result: FIP 2.09 → 2.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIowa Cubs · 5 IPFIP 4.75 → 5.72 (+0.96)K% 43.5% → 38.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.48%	—	×0.880	38.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.050	4.57%
HR / BF /BF	8.70%	÷0.996	×1.100	9.60%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 4.75 → 5.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AATennessee Smokies · 13 IPFIP 3.46 → 4.32 (+0.86)K% 32.2% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.20%	—	×0.810	26.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.95%	—	×1.100	18.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷1.050	×1.200	1.94%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 3.46 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIowa Cubs · 7 IPFIP 1.59 → 1.93 (+0.33)K% 28.6% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.880	25.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.050	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.081	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.59 → 1.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 47 IPFIP 1.69 → 2.58 (+0.89)K% 33.0% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.99%	—	×0.770	25.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.63%	—	×1.150	9.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.51%	÷0.956	×1.250	0.66%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 1.69 → 2.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ASouth Bend Cubs · 40 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.36 (+1.26)K% 29.9% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.91%	—	×0.740	22.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.89%	—	×1.180	18.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷0.881	×1.300	1.38%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Rodríguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.68	23.2%	5.9%	2.6%	—	4.02	22.1%	15.7%	78	+0.34	—	—	—
Jumbo Diaz R 2014 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	26.1%	7.0%	2.0%	.283	3.64	23.0%	15.0%	186	+0.77	2.80	319	79
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	74
Mike Fyhrie R 2000 · 3.08 FIP	30	SU	3.08	19.5%	5.0%	1.8%	.309	3.87	13.7%	4.4%	69	+0.79	3.08	173	73
Kiko Calero R 2005 · 3.51 FIP	30	SU	3.51	22.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.252	3.23	23.3%	13.9%	99	-0.28	2.27	298	73
Daniel Robert R 2024 · 2.90 FIP	29	SU	2.90	26.6%	7.0%	2.1%	.190	3.14	24.1%	14.6%	43	+0.24	2.32	186	73
Austin Adams R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	29	SU	3.40	21.1%	6.1%	2.4%	.376	5.80	20.8%	10.2%	60	+2.40	3.40	162	72
Chris Hatcher R 2015 · 2.92 FIP	30	SU	2.92	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.67	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.75	2.51	246	72
Matt Bush R 2016 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.94	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.07	2.87	249	71
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	71
Manny Acosta R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	22.5%	7.4%	2.9%	.321	4.49	21.3%	10.2%	47	+0.74	3.08	350	70
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	70
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	70
Aquilino López R 2005 · 3.10 FIP	30	SU	3.10	30.6%	8.3%	2.8%	.333	3.89	16.2%	10.5%	96	+0.79	3.10	207	69
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	69
Pedro Báez R 2018 · 2.90 FIP	30	SU	2.90	26.2%	8.9%	1.6%	.280	3.37	23.7%	15.4%	87	+0.47	2.29	356	69
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	69
Tommy Nance R 2021 · 3.96 FIP	30	SU	3.96	24.9%	8.8%	3.4%	.228	3.41	24.1%	16.8%	99	-0.55	2.08	360	69
Kaleb Fleck R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.6%	5.9%	3.1%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	177	69
Gerardo Sanchez R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	30	SU	3.58	20.5%	5.4%	2.8%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	137	68
Cory Gearrin R 2016 · 3.15 FIP	30	SU	3.15	22.8%	6.1%	2.2%	.279	3.72	21.2%	11.5%	181	+0.57	1.81	341	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	46	21.6%	8.0%	0.97	3.43
David Carpenter ('19)	1.1	43	23.5%	8.4%	0.92	3.69
George Kontos ('18)	1.8	51	19.8%	7.1%	0.96	3.10
Hideki Okajima ('13)	1.3	63	20.4%	8.3%	0.97	3.09
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*