Manuel Rodríguez

Manuel Rodríguez P Durham Bulls

Age 29 RHP 5'11" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION13 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10092vR 84

ERA3.54

FIP3.52

K%23.5%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%17.7%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p4020.7%

xwOBA vs

p900.274

SL+6.9 (50%)

SI (34%)

FB (50%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	AAA MLE	Leones de Yucatan	50	0	49	198	45	20	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.6%	9.4%	0.0%	1.84	2.75	—
2015	18	AAA RAW	Leones de Yucatan	50	0	49	198	45	20	0	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	0.0%	1.84	2.49	—
2016	19	AAA MLE	Leones de Yucatan	19	0	16	75	15	13	1	0%	0.8	17.6%	18.2%	-0.6%	1.8%	5.06	4.88	—
2016	19	AAA RAW	Leones de Yucatan	19	0	16	75	15	13	1	0%	0.8	20.0%	17.3%	2.7%	1.3%	5.06	4.47	—
2017	20	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	4	0	7	34	5	5	2	0%	1.7	14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	5.9%	5.40	6.95	—
2017	20	A RAW	South Bend Cubs	4	0	7	34	5	5	2	0%	1.7	14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	5.9%	5.40	7.75	—
2018	21	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	32	0	40	214	64	34	2	0%	1.3	22.1%	18.7%	3.4%	1.4%	7.59	4.36	—
2018	21	A RAW	South Bend Cubs	32	0	40	214	64	34	2	0%	1.3	29.9%	15.9%	14.0%	0.9%	7.59	3.10	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	35	0	47	197	65	17	1	0%	1.3	25.4%	9.9%	15.5%	0.7%	3.45	2.58	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	35	0	47	197	65	17	1	0%	1.3	33.0%	8.6%	24.4%	0.5%	3.45	1.70	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	38	170	43	23	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	15.5%	6.6%	3.0%	3.52	4.84	-0.1
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	38	170	43	23	4	0%	1.0	25.3%	13.5%	11.8%	2.4%	3.52	4.01	+0.2
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	0	22	93	23	12	3	0%	1.0	14.0%	15.8%	-1.8%	1.8%	4.15	4.92	-0.1
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	0	22	93	23	12	3	0%	1.0	24.7%	12.9%	11.8%	3.2%	4.15	4.44	+0.0
2023	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	50	0	56	247	80	25	2	0%	1.1	26.9%	9.1%	17.8%	0.8%	3.99	2.41	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	50	0	56	247	80	25	2	0%	1.1	26.9%	9.1%	17.8%	0.8%	3.99	2.41	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	50	0	56	247	80	25	2	0%	1.1	32.4%	10.1%	22.3%	0.8%	3.99	2.05	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	62	254	62	16	5	0%	1.0	22.5%	6.1%	16.5%	2.0%	1.73	3.08	+1.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	62	254	62	16	5	0%	1.0	22.5%	6.1%	16.5%	2.0%	1.73	3.08	+1.1
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	62	254	62	16	5	0%	1.0	24.4%	6.3%	18.1%	2.0%	1.73	2.92	+1.2
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	32	126	26	6	2	0%	1.0	20.7%	5.0%	15.7%	1.6%	2.27	2.86	+0.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	32	126	26	6	2	0%	1.0	20.7%	5.0%	15.7%	1.6%	2.27	2.86	+0.6
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	32	126	26	6	2	0%	1.0	20.6%	4.8%	15.9%	1.6%	2.27	2.85	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			109	0	104	443	91	39	10	0%	1.0	20.5%	8.8%	11.7%	2.3%	3.03	3.73	+1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	14	1	13	63	22	7	4	7%	0.9	—	—	—	—	7.11	—	—
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	14	1	13	63	22	7	4	7%	0.9	—	—	—	—	7.11	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	ROK RAW	TB	1	0	1	4	3	0	1	0%	1.0	75.0%	0.0%	75.0%	25.0%	9.00	10.49	—
2026	29	A RAW	TB	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	100%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	TB	8	0	6	32	10	4	2	0%	0.8	31.2%	12.5%	18.8%	6.2%	10.50	5.47	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	TB	4	0	5	24	8	3	1	0%	1.2	33.3%	12.5%	20.8%	4.2%	3.86	4.16	—
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	TB	4	0	5	24	8	3	1	0%	1.2	33.3%	12.5%	20.8%	4.2%	3.86	4.16	—
ROS	29	MLB MLE	TB	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	23.5%	5.9%	17.7%	2.3%	3.54	3.52	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	TB	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	23.5%	5.9%	17.7%	2.3%	3.54	3.52	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	14	67	23	7	4	—	—	34.2%	10.8%	23.4%	6.1%	6.84	0.26	+0.8
FULL	29	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	6	24	23	7	4	—	—	95.9%	30.2%	65.7%	17.1%	16.47	8.21	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	TB	53	0	55	233	55	15	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	6.6%	17.0%	2.6%	3.69	3.76	+0.5
2028	31	MLB MLE	TB	49	0	52	218	50	15	6	0%	1.1	22.8%	6.9%	15.9%	2.8%	3.87	3.99	+0.3
2027	30	MLB CTX	TB	50	0	53	224	53	15	6	0%	1.1	23.5%	6.6%	17.0%	2.6%	3.69	3.76	+0.5
2028	31	MLB CTX	TB	47	0	49	207	47	14	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	6.9%	15.9%	2.8%	3.87	3.99	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		207	0	207	876	191	68	22	0%	1.0	21.9%	7.8%	14.1%	2.5%	3.40	3.61	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		200	0	200	848	185	66	21	0%	1.0	21.9%	7.8%	14.1%	2.5%	3.40	3.61	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		361	1	382	1671	378	191	27	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	1.6%	3.65	3.55	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		189	1	200	875	198	100	14	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	1.6%	3.65	3.55	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Rodríguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.52	23.5%	5.9%	2.3%	—	3.87	23.2%	16.4%	107	+0.35	—	—	—
Daniel Hudson R 2016 · 3.39 FIP	29	SU	3.39	21.6%	7.1%	2.2%	.319	3.84	23.5%	13.9%	181	+0.45	1.68	468	84
Chris Hatcher R 2015 · 2.92 FIP	30	SU	2.92	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.67	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.75	2.92	176	80
Matt Bush R 2016 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.94	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.07	2.87	249	78
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	78
Jaye Chapman R 2016 · 3.25 FIP	29	SU	3.25	24.6%	6.4%	2.6%	.274	5.51	13.0%	-0.4%	31	+2.26	3.25	150	78
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	78
Jumbo Diaz R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	31	SU	3.16	25.2%	6.0%	2.6%	.286	3.65	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.49	2.80	284	77
Austin Adams R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	29	SU	3.40	21.1%	6.1%	2.4%	.376	5.80	20.8%	10.2%	60	+2.40	3.40	162	77
Bryan Shaw R 2017 · 2.78 FIP	29	SU	2.78	23.4%	6.1%	1.6%	.307	4.46	19.6%	10.0%	127	+1.68	2.78	596	77
Anthony Swarzak R 2015 · 2.83 FIP	29	SU	2.83	21.3%	4.9%	1.6%	.386	3.60	26.1%	19.8%	181	+0.77	2.35	260	77
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	77
Jay Jackson R 2015 · 2.36 FIP	27	SU	2.36	24.1%	6.2%	0.9%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	261	76
C.C. Lee R 2015 · 2.59 FIP	28	SU	2.59	23.9%	7.0%	1.1%	.323	3.10	30.9%	21.5%	63	+0.51	2.59	121	76
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	76
Tommy Hunter R 2015 · 3.72 FIP	29	SU	3.72	18.9%	4.8%	2.9%	.295	3.14	21.2%	15.9%	172	-0.58	2.78	316	76
Matt Magill R 2019 · 3.40 FIP	29	SU	3.40	27.9%	7.4%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	259	76
Junichi Tazawa R 2015 · 2.94 FIP	29	SU	2.94	22.7%	4.9%	2.1%	.345	4.62	20.6%	12.8%	147	+1.68	2.94	227	74
Pedro Báez R 2017 · 4.08 FIP	29	SU	4.08	22.9%	9.6%	3.1%	.261	3.18	24.7%	16.1%	143	-0.90	2.29	332	74
Kaleb Ort R 2021 · 2.91 FIP	29	SU	2.91	27.3%	9.4%	1.7%	.310	3.99	24.5%	15.1%	157	+1.08	1.75	421	74
Justin Topa R 2019 · 2.69 FIP	28	SU	2.69	19.2%	6.6%	0.7%	.299	2.87	17.2%	7.5%	19	+0.18	2.67	280	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	23.3%	6.5%	1.00	3.70
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36