Manuel Rodríguez

Manuel Rodríguez P Tampa Bay Rays

+0.2 WAR

INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)

Age 29 RHP 5'11" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.5 · 2027

ERA3.12

FIP3.79

xFIP3.20

SIERA3.03

K%22.8%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%15.5%

IP35

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.5peak

2027

K†6060

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p4020.7%

xwOBA vs

p900.274

SL+6.9 (50%)

SI (34%)

FB (50%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	18	AAA	Leones de Yucatan	50	0	49	198	45	20	0	20.0%	10.6%	0.0%	1.84	2.75	+1.2
2016	19	AAA	Leones de Yucatan	19	0	16	75	15	13	1	17.6%	18.2%	1.8%	5.06	4.90	+0.0
2017	20	A	South Bend Cubs	4	0	7	34	5	5	2	—	—	—	5.40	—	—
2018	21	A	South Bend Cubs	32	0	40	214	64	34	2	22.1%	18.7%	1.4%	7.59	4.38	+0.3
2019	22	A+	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	35	0	47	197	65	17	1	25.4%	9.9%	0.7%	3.45	2.58	+1.3
2021	24	MLB	Chicago Cubs	40	0	38	170	43	23	4	22.1%	15.5%	2.8%	3.52	4.75	+0.1
2022	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	21	0	22	93	23	12	3	14.0%	15.8%	1.9%	4.15	4.93	+0.0
2023	26	AAA	Durham Bulls	50	0	56	247	80	25	2	28.5%	10.6%	0.8%	3.99	2.47	+1.6
2024	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	63	0	62	254	62	16	5	23.1%	6.4%	2.0%	1.73	3.06	+1.3
2025	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	33	0	32	126	26	6	2	20.7%	5.0%	1.6%	2.27	2.87	+0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	TB	11	—	11	45	11	3	1	24.4%	7.2%	2.3%	3.05	3.60	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	30	MLB	TB	34	—	34	145	34	11	4	23.8%	7.5%	2.4%	3.51	3.77	+0.5
2028	31	MLB	TB	33	—	33	140	32	11	4	23.2%	7.8%	2.6%	3.77	3.91	+0.4
2029	32	MLB	TB	32	—	32	134	30	11	4	22.5%	8.0%	2.7%	3.95	4.05	+0.3
2030	33	MLB	TB	30	—	30	128	28	10	4	21.9%	8.2%	2.8%	4.09	4.18	+0.3
2031	34	MLB	TB	29	—	29	122	26	10	3	21.2%	8.4%	2.9%	4.23	4.32	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			347	0	369	1608	361	189	23	22.4%	11.8%	1.4%	3.53	3.49	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—			188	0	200	871	195	102	12	22.4%	11.8%	1.4%	3.53	3.49	+4.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Rodríguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.60	24.4%	7.2%	2.3%	—	3.91	23.2%	15.4%	99	+0.31	—	—	—
Chris Hatcher R 2027 · 2.93 FIP	30	SU	2.93	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.62	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.69	2.93	176	81
Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP	29	SW	3.30	21.6%	7.1%	2.1%	.319	3.76	23.5%	13.9%	181	+0.46	1.69	468	79
Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.00 FIP	29	SU	3.00	27.2%	8.1%	2.1%	.190	3.18	24.4%	14.2%	43	+0.18	2.28	186	79
Kaleb Ort R 2026 · 2.96 FIP	29	SU	2.96	27.3%	9.4%	1.8%	.310	4.02	24.9%	14.9%	157	+1.06	1.75	365	77
Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP	28	SW	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.07	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.61	2.31	403	77
Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.4%	.283	3.61	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.09	3.17	272	77
Cody Mincey R 2026 · 2.48 FIP	29	SU	2.48	21.8%	6.0%	0.9%	.239	5.59	13.9%	5.5%	114	+3.11	2.48	147	76
Rafael Montero R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	29	SU	3.57	26.4%	8.3%	3.0%	.222	3.34	24.6%	16.3%	185	-0.23	2.40	643	75
Ross Ohlendorf R 2029 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	75
Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.12	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.63	2.31	187	75
Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	75
Matt Bush R 2027 · 2.88 FIP	30	SW	2.88	24.7%	6.0%	2.0%	.232	3.96	22.2%	12.7%	75	+1.08	2.88	249	75
Anthony Swarzak R 2026 · 2.83 FIP	29	SU	2.83	21.3%	4.9%	1.7%	.386	3.47	26.1%	19.8%	181	+0.64	2.35	260	75
Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.25 FIP	29	SW	3.25	24.6%	6.4%	2.6%	.274	5.48	13.0%	-0.4%	31	+2.23	3.25	150	75
Brandon Morrow R 2028 · 3.51 FIP	31	SU	3.51	18.3%	5.6%	2.3%	.280	3.50	21.2%	14.8%	153	-0.01	2.67	186	75
Jumbo Diaz R 2028 · 3.21 FIP	31	SW	3.21	25.2%	6.0%	2.7%	.286	3.66	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.45	2.80	284	74
Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 2.86 FIP	29	SW	2.86	23.4%	6.1%	1.8%	.307	4.49	19.6%	10.0%	127	+1.63	2.86	596	74
C.C. Lee R 2025 · 2.58 FIP	28	SW	2.58	23.9%	7.0%	1.1%	.323	3.07	30.9%	21.5%	63	+0.49	2.58	121	74
Jay Jackson R 2024 · 2.37 FIP	27	SW	2.37	24.1%	6.2%	0.9%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	261	74
Matt Magill R 2026 · 3.43 FIP	29	SW	3.43	27.9%	7.4%	3.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	259	74

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$1M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.8M		$0.8M	+$0.0M