Humberto Mejía prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Humberto Mejía P Syracuse Mets

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 244 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.88

FIP4.87

K%18.5%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP58

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p2819.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.360

SL-0.7

CH-1.7

FB-7.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	13	13	75	285	71	14	1	100%	5.7	16.9%	6.1%	10.8%	0.5%	1.69	2.72	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	13	13	75	285	71	14	1	100%	5.7	24.9%	4.9%	20.0%	0.4%	1.69	1.93	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	10	2	40	165	34	8	1	20%	4.0	14.0%	6.1%	8.0%	0.8%	2.45	3.15	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	10	2	40	165	34	8	1	20%	4.0	20.6%	4.8%	15.8%	0.6%	2.45	2.33	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	90	349	89	24	6	78%	5.0	19.1%	8.1%	11.0%	2.3%	2.09	3.76	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	14	90	349	89	24	6	78%	5.0	25.5%	6.9%	18.6%	1.7%	2.09	2.79	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	3	3	10	49	11	6	3	100%	3.3	22.4%	12.2%	10.2%	6.1%	5.40	6.12	-0.1
2020	23	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	3	3	10	49	11	6	3	100%	3.3	22.4%	12.2%	10.2%	6.1%	5.40	6.60	-0.2
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	126	558	120	45	22	100%	4.8	18.9%	8.5%	10.4%	4.2%	5.50	4.88	+0.0
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	126	558	120	45	22	100%	4.8	21.5%	8.1%	13.4%	3.9%	5.50	4.54	+0.5
2022	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	9	0	15	72	6	4	4	0%	1.7	7.3%	5.8%	1.5%	6.3%	9.60	6.70	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	9	0	15	72	6	4	4	0%	1.7	8.3%	5.6%	2.8%	5.6%	9.60	6.57	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	8	8	35	156	30	12	11	100%	4.4	16.5%	6.9%	9.6%	7.7%	6.17	6.83	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	8	8	35	156	30	12	11	100%	4.4	16.5%	6.9%	9.6%	7.7%	6.17	6.83	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	8	8	35	156	30	12	11	100%	4.4	19.2%	7.7%	11.5%	7.1%	6.17	6.50	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	8	32	154	31	14	8	100%	4.0	20.1%	9.1%	11.0%	5.2%	6.68	5.70	-0.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.5%	9.2%	9.4%	3.3%	4.88	4.87	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	55	231	42	22	8	100%	6.1	18.3%	9.5%	8.8%	3.4%	4.94	5.02	-0.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	51	216	39	21	8	100%	5.7	18.0%	9.8%	8.1%	3.6%	5.07	5.20	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	NYM	3	3	20	84	15	8	3	100%	6.7	18.3%	9.5%	8.8%	3.4%	4.94	5.02	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	NYM	5	5	28	118	21	12	4	100%	5.6	18.0%	9.8%	8.1%	3.6%	5.07	5.20	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	16	81	358	68	34	15	100%	5.0	19.0%	9.4%	9.6%	4.3%	5.68	5.03	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	40	200	888	169	84	37	100%	5.0	19.0%	9.4%	9.6%	4.3%	5.68	5.03	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		87	66	391	1634	285	124	54	76%	4.5	17.5%	7.6%	9.9%	3.3%	3.89	4.39	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	34	200	835	146	63	27	76%	4.5	17.5%	7.6%	9.9%	3.3%	3.89	4.39	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Humberto Mejía (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	18.5%	9.2%	3.3%	—	5.11	18.2%	8.5%	106	+0.24	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	81
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	79
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	78
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	76
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	74
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	73
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	72
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	72
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	72
Aaron Brooks R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.0%	7.1%	3.9%	.281	4.38	15.8%	8.8%	70	-0.34	3.71	879	71
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	70
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	70
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	70
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	69
Kenneth Sigman R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP-	4.05	13.9%	7.7%	2.1%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	267	69
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	69
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	69
Marco Quevedo R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	29	SP	4.57	13.6%	6.2%	3.3%	.258	5.02	11.5%	3.2%	107	+0.45	4.13	300	69
Kyle Friedrichs R 2021 · 4.73 FIP	29	SP-	4.73	13.9%	6.2%	3.7%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	603	68
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	18.6%	9.5%	1.45	5.24
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27