Humberto Mejía — OGILVIE

Humberto Mejía P Syracuse Mets

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 244 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.88

K%18.3%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p2819.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.360

SL-0.7

CH-1.7

FB-7.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	13	13	75	285	71	14	1	100%	5.7	16.9%	6.1%	10.8%	0.5%	1.69	2.72	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	13	13	75	285	71	14	1	100%	5.7	24.9%	4.9%	20.0%	0.4%	1.69	1.93	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	10	2	40	165	34	8	1	20%	4.0	14.0%	6.1%	8.0%	0.8%	2.45	3.15	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	10	2	40	165	34	8	1	20%	4.0	20.6%	4.8%	15.8%	0.6%	2.45	2.33	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	90	349	89	24	6	78%	5.0	19.1%	8.1%	11.0%	2.3%	2.09	3.76	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	14	90	349	89	24	6	78%	5.0	25.5%	6.9%	18.6%	1.7%	2.09	2.79	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	3	3	10	49	11	6	3	100%	3.3	22.4%	12.2%	10.2%	6.1%	5.40	6.12	-0.1
2020	23	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	3	3	10	49	11	6	3	100%	3.3	22.4%	12.2%	10.2%	6.1%	5.40	6.60	-0.2
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	126	558	120	45	22	100%	4.8	18.9%	8.5%	10.4%	4.2%	5.50	4.88	+0.0
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	126	558	120	45	22	100%	4.8	21.5%	8.1%	13.4%	3.9%	5.50	4.54	+0.5
2022	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	9	0	15	72	6	4	4	0%	1.7	7.3%	5.8%	1.5%	6.3%	9.60	6.70	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	9	0	15	72	6	4	4	0%	1.7	8.3%	5.6%	2.8%	5.6%	9.60	6.57	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	8	8	35	156	30	12	11	100%	4.4	16.0%	6.9%	9.0%	7.7%	6.17	6.87	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	8	8	35	156	30	12	11	100%	4.4	16.0%	6.9%	9.0%	7.7%	6.17	6.87	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	8	8	35	156	30	12	11	100%	4.4	19.2%	7.7%	11.5%	7.1%	6.17	6.50	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	8	32	154	31	14	8	100%	4.0	20.1%	9.1%	11.0%	5.2%	6.68	5.70	-0.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	NYM	1	1	5	21	4	2	1	100%	5.0	18.3%	9.2%	9.2%	3.3%	4.90	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	55	231	42	22	8	100%	6.1	18.1%	9.5%	8.7%	3.4%	4.96	5.03	-0.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	51	216	38	21	8	100%	5.7	17.8%	9.8%	8.0%	3.6%	5.09	5.21	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	NYM	3	3	20	84	15	8	3	100%	6.7	18.1%	9.5%	8.7%	3.4%	4.96	5.03	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	NYM	5	5	28	118	21	12	4	100%	5.6	17.8%	9.8%	8.0%	3.6%	5.09	5.21	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	16	81	358	68	34	15	100%	5.0	18.9%	9.4%	9.5%	4.3%	5.70	5.03	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	40	200	888	169	84	37	100%	5.0	18.9%	9.4%	9.5%	4.3%	5.70	5.03	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		87	66	391	1634	284	124	54	76%	4.5	17.4%	7.6%	9.8%	3.3%	3.89	4.40	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	34	200	835	145	63	27	76%	4.5	17.4%	7.6%	9.8%	3.3%	3.89	4.40	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Humberto Mejía (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	18.3%	9.2%	3.3%	—	5.12	18.0%	8.3%	106	+0.24	—	—	—
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	83
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	82
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	81
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	81
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	78
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	76
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	76
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	74
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	73
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	73
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	72
Justin Masterson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP-	4.10	18.2%	10.5%	2.2%	.307	3.73	17.3%	6.4%	196	-0.37	3.50	269	72
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	72
Clayton Mortensen R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	15.0%	12.6%	1.8%	.289	4.43	22.0%	10.3%	115	+0.02	4.31	221	71
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	71
Tyler Cloyd R 2016 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	17.6%	12.4%	1.3%	.211	4.86	16.9%	9.7%	230	+0.97	3.89	250	71
Tim Lincecum R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SP	4.20	18.0%	10.8%	2.3%	.296	5.02	17.4%	6.3%	89	+0.82	4.20	166	71
Aaron Brooks R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.0%	7.1%	3.9%	.281	4.38	15.8%	8.8%	70	-0.34	3.71	879	71
Trevor Cahill R 2017 · 5.13 FIP	29	SP-	5.13	22.8%	11.5%	4.5%	.321	4.36	21.3%	11.7%	251	-0.77	3.37	556	71
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	18.1%	9.5%	1.33	4.98
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50