Humberto Mejía
P
Syracuse Mets
Age 29
RHP
6'4" / 244 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128118vR 109
ERA4.78
FIP4.80
K%20.4%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%10.5%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p2819.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.360
SL-0.7
CH-1.7
FB-7.7
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 13 | 13 | 75 | 285 | 71 | 14 | 1 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 10.8% | 0.5% | 1.69 | 2.72 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 13 | 13 | 75 | 285 | 71 | 14 | 1 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.9% | 4.9% | 20.0% | 0.4% | 1.69 | 1.93 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 10 | 2 | 40 | 165 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 20% | 4.0 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 0.8% | 2.45 | 3.15 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | GCL Marlins | 10 | 2 | 40 | 165 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 20% | 4.0 | 20.6% | 4.8% | 15.8% | 0.6% | 2.45 | 2.33 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 14 | 90 | 349 | 89 | 24 | 6 | 78% | 5.0 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 2.5% | 2.09 | 3.86 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 14 | 90 | 349 | 89 | 24 | 6 | 78% | 5.0 | 25.5% | 6.9% | 18.6% | 1.7% | 2.09 | 2.79 | — |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 3 | 3 | 10 | 49 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 100% | 3.3 | 22.4% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 5.40 | 6.12 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 3 | 3 | 10 | 49 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 100% | 3.3 | 22.4% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 5.40 | 6.60 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 126 | 558 | 120 | 45 | 22 | 100% | 4.8 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 4.0% | 5.50 | 4.77 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 126 | 558 | 120 | 45 | 22 | 100% | 4.8 | 21.5% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 3.9% | 5.50 | 4.54 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | 9 | 0 | 15 | 72 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0% | 1.7 | 7.3% | 5.8% | 1.5% | 6.6% | 9.60 | 6.83 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | 9 | 0 | 15 | 72 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0% | 1.7 | 8.3% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 5.6% | 9.60 | 6.57 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 8 | 8 | 35 | 156 | 30 | 12 | 11 | 100% | 4.4 | 16.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.17 | 6.93 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 8 | 8 | 35 | 156 | 30 | 12 | 11 | 100% | 4.4 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 7.1% | 6.17 | 6.50 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 10 | 10 | 58 | 246 | 50 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 4.80 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 9 | 55 | 231 | 46 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.96 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 9 | 51 | 216 | 42 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 5.01 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.96 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 23 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 5.01 | 5.14 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 16 | 81 | 358 | 71 | 35 | 15 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 4.3% | 5.64 | 4.99 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 40 | 200 | 888 | 176 | 87 | 37 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 4.3% | 5.64 | 4.99 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 87 | 66 | 391 | 1634 | 286 | 126 | 53 | 76% | 4.5 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 3.89 | 4.39 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 34 | 200 | 835 | 146 | 64 | 27 | 76% | 4.5 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 3.89 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Humberto Mejía (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 3.3% | — | 5.05 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 106 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 81 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 80 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 79 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 77 |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 77 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.10 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | .321 | 4.41 | 21.3% | 11.7% | 251 | -0.69 | 3.33 | 556 | 75 |
| Ariel Peña R 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 75 |
| Yohan Pino R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 74 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 74 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 71 |
| Justin Masterson R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 71 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 71 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 1.3% | .211 | 4.90 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 230 | +1.01 | 3.89 | 250 | 70 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.42 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.2% | .276 | 4.57 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -0.85 | 3.61 | 605 | 70 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.20 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .296 | 5.09 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 89 | +0.89 | 4.20 | 166 | 70 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 135 | 70 |
| Aaron Brooks R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.78 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 4.0% | .281 | 4.30 | 15.8% | 8.8% | 70 | -0.48 | 3.61 | 879 | 69 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.40 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.10 | 4.23 | 221 | 69 |
| Luke Irvine R 2024 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 69 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.67 | 16.6% | 9.7% | 1.3% | .327 | 2.19 | 29.2% | 16.9% | 17 | -1.48 | 2.19 | 426 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 55 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 4.88 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |