Darwinzon Hernández prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Darwinzon Hernández P Norfolk Tides

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 255 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 111

ERA4.24

FIP4.08

K%26.8%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%16.2%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL2020

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p9031.8%

p9029.7%

xwOBA vs

p400.323

FB-3.7

SL-5.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox 2	16	13	65	279	66	30	0	81%	4.1	16.1%	13.4%	2.6%	0.0%	1.10	3.44	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox 2	16	13	65	279	66	30	0	81%	4.1	23.7%	10.8%	12.9%	0.0%	1.10	2.46	—
2017	20	A MLE	Greenville Drive	23	23	103	450	116	49	8	100%	4.5	19.1%	12.8%	6.2%	1.5%	4.01	3.94	—
2017	20	A RAW	Greenville Drive	23	23	103	450	116	49	8	100%	4.5	25.8%	10.9%	14.9%	1.8%	4.01	3.28	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	23	107	471	134	66	1	82%	3.8	21.7%	15.7%	6.0%	0.3%	3.53	3.42	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	23	107	471	134	66	1	82%	3.8	28.5%	14.0%	14.4%	0.2%	3.53	2.57	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	13	88	412	136	73	5	28%	1.9	29.7%	18.7%	11.0%	1.4%	4.83	3.71	+0.9
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	13	88	412	136	73	5	28%	1.9	33.0%	17.7%	15.3%	1.2%	4.83	3.24	+1.4
2020	23	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	7	0	8	40	13	8	0	0%	1.2	32.5%	20.0%	12.5%	0.0%	2.16	2.89	+0.2
2020	23	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	7	0	8	40	13	8	0	0%	1.2	32.5%	20.0%	12.5%	0.0%	2.16	2.86	+0.2
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	41	186	55	32	5	0%	0.8	29.7%	17.0%	12.6%	2.8%	3.29	4.30	+0.1
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	41	186	55	32	5	0%	0.8	29.6%	17.2%	12.4%	2.7%	3.29	4.34	+0.1
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	7	40	196	60	35	7	23%	1.3	29.3%	18.5%	10.8%	2.3%	8.39	4.23	+0.1
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	7	40	196	60	35	7	23%	1.3	30.6%	17.9%	12.8%	3.6%	8.39	5.02	-0.2
2023	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	27	0	27	115	37	19	3	0%	1.0	27.7%	14.9%	12.8%	2.9%	2.96	4.23	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	27	0	27	115	37	19	3	0%	1.0	27.7%	14.9%	12.8%	2.9%	2.96	4.23	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	27	0	27	115	37	19	3	0%	1.0	32.2%	16.5%	15.7%	2.6%	2.96	3.90	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			91	1	85	412	133	72	10	1%	0.9	32.3%	17.5%	14.8%	2.4%	5.06	4.04	+0.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	BAL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	26.8%	10.6%	16.2%	2.8%	4.24	4.08	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	BAL	114	0	119	504	129	53	15	0%	1.0	25.6%	10.6%	15.0%	3.0%	4.29	4.31	+0.3
2028	31	MLB MLE	BAL	106	0	111	470	116	50	15	0%	1.1	24.6%	10.7%	13.9%	3.2%	4.43	4.53	+0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	BAL	42	0	44	186	48	20	6	0%	1.0	25.6%	10.6%	15.0%	3.0%	4.29	4.31	+0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	BAL	58	0	61	258	63	28	8	0%	1.1	24.6%	10.7%	13.9%	3.2%	4.43	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		191	1	191	856	244	119	24	1%	1.0	28.5%	13.9%	14.6%	2.8%	4.68	3.99	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		201	1	200	899	256	125	25	1%	1.0	28.5%	13.9%	14.6%	2.8%	4.68	3.99	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		226	79	480	2149	513	339	27	35%	2.1	23.9%	15.8%	8.1%	1.3%	3.87	3.77	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	33	200	896	214	142	11	35%	2.1	23.9%	15.8%	8.1%	1.3%	3.87	3.77	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Darwinzon Hernández (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.08	26.8%	10.6%	2.8%	—	4.42	25.1%	14.5%	231	+0.34	—	—	—
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	66
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	64
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	63
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	62
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	60
Zach Phillips L 2016 · 3.01 FIP	29	SU	3.01	27.4%	11.9%	1.3%	.370	3.20	19.2%	10.6%	86	+0.19	2.33	202	59
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	59
Nick Ramirez L 2019 · 3.94 FIP	29	SU	3.94	22.4%	8.2%	3.1%	.284	3.40	20.5%	13.1%	124	-0.54	2.91	478	59
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	58
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	58
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	58
Tommy Phelps L 2003 · 3.39 FIP	29	SW	3.39	15.6%	8.0%	1.1%	.322	4.47	16.9%	8.9%	57	+1.08	3.39	120	56
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	56
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	56
Hideki Okajima L 2007 · 3.05 FIP	31	SU	3.05	23.2%	5.5%	2.2%	.234	3.87	20.2%	12.6%	169	+0.82	3.05	238	55
Roenis Elías L 2018 · 3.15 FIP	29	SW	3.15	17.8%	8.4%	0.9%	.275	4.80	21.8%	13.9%	50	+1.65	3.15	728	54
Damaso Marte L 2004 · 4.27 FIP	29	SU	4.27	22.4%	9.9%	3.3%	.236	3.28	25.9%	15.1%	149	-0.99	2.41	495	54
Doug Creek L 2000 · 4.57 FIP	31	SU	4.57	27.5%	13.6%	3.8%	.267	4.75	21.9%	7.8%	132	+0.18	4.48	277	54
Scott Sauerbeck L 2001 · 3.04 FIP	29	SU	3.04	28.1%	12.1%	1.4%	.348	3.64	23.6%	11.9%	119	+0.60	2.79	386	54
Sean Gilmartin L 2019 · 4.21 FIP	29	SU	4.21	24.1%	8.9%	3.7%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	386	54

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	89	27.1%	12.1%	1.11	4.46
Dinelson Lamet ('24)	1.8	61	29.9%	10.7%	1.30	4.63
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Tony Cingrani ('18)	1.7	56	25.8%	11.3%	1.26	4.01
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Brandon Workman ('21)	1.6	55	24.3%	11.1%	1.04	4.02