Julian Fernández

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 31 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	AAATOR	7	0	9	10.61	7.49	9.8%	7.8%	—	K 8.4% · BB 7.1% · FIP 7.16
2025	29	MIX2 levels	51	4	59	4.27	3.88	28.2%	7.8%	0.5	K 24.5% · BB 6.9% · FIP 4.04
2026	30	MIX2 levels	16	0	15	3.00	4.50	21.3%	11.5%	0.0	K 21.3% · BB 11.5% · FIP 4.55
2027PROJ	31	MLBWSH	62	0	65	3.99	3.99	24.0%	6.3%	0.4
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBWSH	21	0	22	4.15	4.24	23.5%	7.0%	0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBWSH	29	0	30	4.36	4.50	23.0%	7.6%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control55Command60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMark Serrano (age 31) · Adrian Ramirez (age 31) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA3.99

FIP3.99

K%24.0%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%17.8%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†6060

FB (59%)

CH (41%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	28	0	38	152	35	15	0	0%	1.4	15.7%	12.3%	3.3%	0.0%	3.55	3.34	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	Grand Junction Rockies	28	0	38	152	35	15	0	0%	1.4	23.0%	9.9%	13.2%	0.0%	3.55	2.44	—
2017	21	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	51	0	58	245	57	18	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	8.7%	8.5%	0.9%	3.26	3.21	—
2017	21	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	51	0	58	245	57	18	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	7.3%	15.9%	0.8%	3.26	2.51	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	0	49	210	46	19	6	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.2%	10.7%	2.7%	3.65	4.09	+0.3
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	50	0	49	210	46	19	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.0%	12.9%	2.9%	3.65	3.97	+0.3
2022	26	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	58	0	57	261	65	32	15	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.9%	9.0%	6.0%	6.63	6.15	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	58	0	57	261	65	32	15	0%	1.0	24.9%	12.3%	12.6%	5.7%	6.63	5.92	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	7	0	9	51	5	4	3	0%	1.3	8.4%	7.1%	1.4%	7.1%	10.61	7.16	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	7	0	9	51	5	4	3	0%	1.3	9.8%	7.8%	2.0%	5.9%	10.61	7.49	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	4	59	255	72	20	10	8%	1.2	24.5%	6.9%	17.6%	3.9%	4.27	4.04	+0.4
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	4	59	255	72	20	10	8%	1.2	24.5%	6.9%	17.6%	3.9%	4.27	4.04	+0.4
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	4	59	255	72	20	10	8%	1.2	28.2%	7.8%	20.4%	3.9%	4.27	3.88	+0.5
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	15	61	13	7	2	0%	0.9	21.3%	11.5%	9.8%	3.3%	3.00	4.55	-0.0
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	15	61	13	7	2	0%	0.9	21.3%	11.5%	9.8%	3.3%	3.00	4.55	-0.0
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	0	15	61	13	7	2	0%	0.9	21.3%	11.5%	9.8%	3.3%	3.00	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			13	0	16	71	12	8	5	0%	1.2	16.9%	11.3%	5.6%	7.0%	6.89	7.25	-0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	WSH	62	0	65	274	66	17	9	0%	1.0	24.0%	6.3%	17.8%	3.2%	3.99	3.99	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	WSH	57	0	60	254	60	18	9	0%	1.1	23.5%	7.0%	16.6%	3.4%	4.15	4.24	+0.2
2029	33	MLB MLE	WSH	53	0	55	233	54	18	9	0%	1.0	23.0%	7.6%	15.4%	3.6%	4.36	4.50	+0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	WSH	21	0	22	93	22	6	3	0%	1.0	23.5%	7.0%	16.6%	3.4%	4.15	4.24	+0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	WSH	29	0	30	127	29	10	5	0%	1.0	23.0%	7.6%	15.4%	3.6%	4.36	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	68	293	64	24	13	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.3%	13.4%	4.4%	4.87	4.73	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	0	200	859	188	70	38	0%	1.1	21.7%	8.3%	13.4%	4.4%	4.87	4.73	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		261	4	286	1235	245	121	39	2%	1.1	19.8%	9.8%	10.0%	3.2%	4.47	4.40	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		183	3	200	865	171	85	27	2%	1.1	19.8%	9.8%	10.0%	3.2%	4.47	4.40	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julian Fernández (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.99	24.0%	6.3%	3.2%	—	4.36	23.3%	16.0%	115	+0.37	—	—	—
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	79
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	79
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	75
Aquilino López R 2005 · 3.10 FIP	30	SU	3.10	30.6%	8.3%	2.8%	.333	3.89	16.2%	10.5%	96	+0.79	3.10	207	75
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	74
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	74
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	74
Gregory Infante R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	31	SU	4.07	22.0%	4.6%	4.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	230	74
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	73
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	73
Gerardo Sanchez R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	30	SU	3.58	20.5%	5.4%	2.8%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	137	73
Chris Martin R 2018 · 3.04 FIP	32	SU	3.04	20.9%	1.7%	2.7%	.311	2.92	25.7%	23.1%	117	-0.12	1.76	431	73
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	4.97	21.2%	10.4%	88	+1.93	2.79	239	72
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	72
Tony Pena Jr. R 2015 · 2.80 FIP	34	SU	2.80	18.8%	2.7%	1.7%	.294	3.02	18.7%	14.4%	82	+0.22	2.80	128	71
Matt Bush R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	31	SU	3.60	24.2%	7.9%	2.8%	.321	4.72	17.6%	4.6%	23	+1.12	2.87	249	71
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	70
Jared Burton R 2012 · 3.09 FIP	31	SU	3.09	22.4%	6.1%	2.0%	.212	3.59	19.9%	12.6%	144	+0.50	3.09	367	70
Jesus Pirela R 2019 · 3.24 FIP	30	SU	3.24	22.5%	5.3%	2.5%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	161	70
James Hoyt R 2018 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	24.4%	8.3%	2.3%	.269	4.63	22.1%	11.3%	92	+1.27	1.61	312	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	65	23.0%	7.3%	1.43	4.38
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Matt Bush ('23)	1.1	53	25.2%	8.0%	1.41	3.75
Pete Ladd ('79-'86, 0 WAR*)	1.4	72	24.6%*	7.8%*	1.53*	4.42*
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*
Barney Schultz ('55-'65, 2 WAR*)	1.7	58	24.6%*	8.3%*	1.28*	3.93*