Gregory Soto — OGILVIE

Gregory Soto P Pittsburgh Pirates

+1.0 WAR

Age 31 LHP 6'1" / 247 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.0 · 2026

ERA3.92

FIP3.60

xFIP2.78

SIERA2.46

K%25.2%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%16.3%

IP54

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.0peak

2026

K†6565

FB Velo

p7796.4

Whiff%

p9033.7%

p9038.0%

xwOBA vs

p900.224

FB+2.4 (56%)

SL+1.7 (44%)

SI (37%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	20	ROK	GCL Tigers	9	5	37	166	40	25	0	16.4%	18.8%	0.0%	2.19	4.10	+0.4
2017	22	A+	Lakeland Flying Tigers	23	23	124	518	144	65	4	20.7%	14.7%	1.0%	2.25	3.78	+2.1
2018	23	A+	Lakeland Flying Tigers	25	23	113	517	115	70	4	17.1%	15.6%	0.8%	4.45	4.05	+1.6
2019	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	43	16	98	457	92	51	13	18.5%	11.4%	3.2%	5.58	4.72	+0.6
2020	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	27	0	23	98	29	13	2	29.6%	13.3%	2.1%	4.30	3.44	+0.4
2021	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	62	0	64	276	76	38	7	27.5%	13.8%	2.6%	3.39	3.95	+0.7
2022	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	64	0	60	263	60	33	2	22.8%	12.5%	0.8%	3.28	3.20	+1.2
2023	28	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	69	0	60	250	65	22	6	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	4.62	3.23	+1.2
2024	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	66	0	53	244	65	24	4	26.6%	9.8%	1.6%	4.42	2.96	+1.2
2025	30	MLB	New York Mets	70	0	60	279	70	23	4	25.1%	8.2%	1.4%	4.18	2.79	+1.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	10	0	10	37	15	5	1	—	—	—	0.93	—	—
ROS	31	MLB	PIT	44	—	44	188	53	17	4	28.1%	8.8%	2.1%	3.87	3.38	+0.8
2026 Total	31	MLB	PIT	—	—	54	225	68	22	5	30.1%	9.6%	2.2%	3.34	2.78	+1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	PIT	52	—	52	219	64	21	5	29.4%	9.4%	2.2%	3.56	3.41	+0.9
2028	33	MLB	PIT	50	—	50	209	60	20	5	28.7%	9.6%	2.3%	3.55	3.54	+0.8
2029	34	MLB	PIT	47	—	47	199	56	19	5	28.1%	9.8%	2.4%	3.63	3.68	+0.7
2030	35	MLB	PIT	44	—	44	187	51	19	5	27.3%	10.0%	2.5%	3.75	3.83	+0.6
2031	36	MLB	PIT	42	—	42	175	47	18	5	26.5%	10.3%	2.6%	3.89	3.99	+0.5
2032	37	MLB	PIT	38	—	38	163	42	17	5	25.7%	10.6%	2.8%	4.06	4.17	+0.3
2033	38	MLB	PIT	35	—	35	149	37	16	4	24.9%	10.9%	2.9%	4.24	4.35	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			468	67	703	3105	688	398	49	22.1%	12.8%	1.6%	3.84	3.73	+12.5
/ 200 IP	—			133	19	200	883	196	113	14	22.1%	12.8%	1.6%	3.84	3.73	+3.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gregory Soto (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.38	28.1%	8.8%	2.1%	—	3.54	28.8%	19.2%	149	+0.16	—	—	—
Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.27 FIP	31	SW	3.27	27.2%	11.9%	1.7%	.312	3.37	31.7%	18.8%	144	+0.10	2.32	455	74
Jared Koenig L 2026 · 3.00 FIP	31	SW	3.00	25.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	455	71
Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 3.69 FIP	31	SW	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.42	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.73	3.20	241	70
Brian Moran L 2025 · 3.39 FIP	30	SW	3.39	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.98	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.81	421	70
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2029 · 2.57 FIP	34	SU	2.57	24.2%	9.2%	0.6%	.307	3.31	22.6%	14.3%	71	+0.74	2.57	109	69
Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.80 FIP	31	SU	3.80	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.13	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.33	2.37	130	68
Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.49 FIP	31	SU	3.49	26.5%	10.8%	2.3%	.290	4.06	22.1%	12.0%	54	+0.57	2.43	420	68
Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.47 FIP	31	SW	4.47	20.7%	6.6%	4.2%	.316	3.55	25.6%	21.2%	121	-0.92	1.36	350	67
Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.70 FIP	31	SW	3.70	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	223	67
Heriberto Ruelas L 2028 · 2.97 FIP	33	SU	2.97	19.1%	7.3%	1.0%	.352	3.57	16.2%	8.5%	89	+0.60	2.97	117	66
Zach Phillips L 2025 · 2.85 FIP	30	SU	2.85	19.2%	8.6%	0.5%	.301	3.67	19.1%	10.6%	36	+0.82	2.34	202	65
Jorge Ibarra L 2024 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	19.3%	6.5%	1.4%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	146	65
Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.68 FIP	31	SU	3.68	20.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.281	2.38	23.3%	21.0%	44	-1.30	2.38	306	65
Phil Coke L 2028 · 3.85 FIP	33	SU	3.85	18.8%	9.1%	2.1%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.81	3.04	101	65
David Huff L 2026 · 4.07 FIP	31	SW	4.07	19.5%	4.9%	3.6%	.384	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	158	64
Zack Britton L 2026 · 3.53 FIP	31	SW	3.53	21.6%	12.7%	1.2%	.222	3.70	20.3%	7.2%	37	+0.17	1.60	309	64
Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	22.3%	4.8%	3.1%	.353	3.79	14.1%	9.5%	56	+0.23	3.42	152	64
Marlon Arias L 2025 · 4.30 FIP	30	SW	4.30	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.57	3.73	154	64
Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	21.6%	6.2%	3.0%	.311	4.62	22.4%	8.9%	85	+0.92	3.70	181	63
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 4.44 FIP	29	SW	4.44	22.4%	11.4%	3.3%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	126	63

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.593 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+1.0	$8M	+$0.0M
Totals		$8M		$8M	+$0.0M