Josh Rogers
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
Age 32
LHP
6'3" / 211 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION62 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA5.21
FIP5.61
xFIP6.60
SIERA6.01
K%10.0%
BB%7.0%
K-BB%3.0%
IP62
K†3030
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p1089.5
Whiff%
p1012.7%
K%
p106.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.406
SL+0.6 (49%)
SI (5%)
CH-0.7 (5%)
FB-1.1 (38%)
CT-1.2 (8%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 2 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 0.0% | 5.68 | 2.66 | +0.1 |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Tampa Yankees | 24 | 24 | 136 | 549 | 115 | 22 | 6 | 16.0% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 2.38 | 3.36 | +3.3 |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Trenton Thunder | 15 | 15 | 92 | 369 | 80 | 16 | 8 | 17.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 3.24 | 3.87 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 27 | 27 | 151 | 647 | 107 | 40 | 18 | 14.7% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 3.93 | 4.45 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 16 | 11 | 69 | 323 | 38 | 16 | 25 | 10.5% | 5.1% | 9.9% | 8.57 | 8.29 | -2.9 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 24 | 21 | 126 | 543 | 85 | 38 | 21 | 14.3% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 4.14 | 5.18 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 31 | 18 | 98 | 440 | 62 | 39 | 24 | 12.2% | 9.5% | 5.1% | 6.13 | 6.09 | -0.8 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 30 | 13 | 104 | 487 | 64 | 42 | 31 | 11.6% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 8.02 | 6.69 | -1.6 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 26 | 17 | 95 | 431 | 55 | 18 | 24 | 11.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.42 | 5.43 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 26 | 18 | 10 | 10.0% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 5.21 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | COL | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 25 | 19 | 10 | 10.5% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 5.49 | 5.76 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | COL | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 23 | 18 | 9 | 10.6% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 5.72 | 5.95 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | COL | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 20 | 17 | 9 | 10.2% | 8.9% | 4.5% | 5.98 | 6.21 | -0.9 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | COL | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 17 | 17 | 8 | 10.0% | 9.5% | 4.8% | 6.27 | 6.49 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 195 | 146 | 879 | 3818 | 521 | 249 | 171 | 13.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.03 | 5.24 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 33 | 200 | 869 | 119 | 57 | 39 | 13.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.03 | 5.24 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Rogers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.61 | 10.0% | 7.0% | 3.8% | — | 5.96 | 10.4% | 2.2% | 155 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| John Lannan L 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.76 | 8.2% | 7.7% | 2.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 284 | 70 |
| CC Sabathia L 2029 · 4.30 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.30 | 18.9% | 6.5% | 3.6% | .311 | 3.96 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 481 | -0.34 | 3.75 | 756 | 70 |
| Duane Below L 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.42 | 14.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 189 | 64 |
| Tommy Milone L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | .259 | 4.33 | 20.1% | 13.7% | 129 | -0.40 | 3.37 | 875 | 54 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.57 | 23.0% | 11.5% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.59 | 19.5% | 7.6% | 301 | +0.02 | 3.07 | 650 | 53 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.30 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .290 | 6.22 | 8.7% | -4.3% | 12 | +1.92 | 3.72 | 395 | 51 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.71 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .301 | 4.61 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.10 | 4.24 | 445 | 43 |
| Tomas Solis L 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.35 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .264 | 5.50 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +1.15 | 4.35 | 327 | 42 |
| Everett Teaford L 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 41 |
| Alfredo Simon R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.69 | 14.3% | 8.2% | 3.2% | .289 | 5.63 | 12.3% | 2.7% | 74 | +0.94 | 4.69 | 261 | 39 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.40 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.68 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.28 | 4.40 | 408 | 39 |
| Travis Blackley L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 38 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.04 | 10.0% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .373 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 175 | 38 |
| Dylan Axelrod R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.43 | 13.7% | 6.3% | 3.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 251 | 38 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 12.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 277 | 38 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.99 | 13.0% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .316 | 5.18 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 185 | +0.19 | 3.47 | 512 | 38 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 14.9% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 577 | 37 |
| Orlando Lara L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.45 | 14.7% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .346 | 4.05 | 22.0% | 14.2% | 104 | -0.40 | 3.82 | 426 | 36 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 36 |
| Marco Estrada R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.32 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .213 | 4.55 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 506 | +0.23 | 4.04 | 710 | 36 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.