Josh Rogers
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
+0.0
WAR
Age 32
LHP
6'3" / 211 lbs
AAA
ERA5.75
FIP5.22
xFIP6.60
SIERA6.01
K%16.1%
BB%7.0%
K-BB%9.1%
IP89
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†3030
FB Velo
p1089.5
Whiff%
p1012.7%
K%
p106.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.406
SL+0.6 (49%)
SI (5%)
CH-0.7 (5%)
FB-1.1 (38%)
CT-1.2 (8%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 2 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.68 | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Tampa Yankees | 24 | 24 | 136 | 549 | 115 | 22 | 6 | 16.0% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 2.38 | 3.22 | +3.2 |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Trenton Thunder | 15 | 15 | 92 | 369 | 80 | 16 | 8 | 17.0% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 3.24 | 3.80 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 27 | 27 | 151 | 647 | 107 | 40 | 18 | 14.7% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 3.93 | 4.40 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 16 | 11 | 69 | 323 | 38 | 16 | 25 | 10.5% | 5.1% | 9.1% | 8.57 | 7.83 | -2.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 24 | 21 | 126 | 543 | 85 | 38 | 21 | 14.3% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 4.14 | 5.18 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 31 | 18 | 98 | 440 | 62 | 39 | 24 | 12.2% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 6.13 | 6.12 | -0.9 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 30 | 13 | 104 | 487 | 64 | 42 | 31 | 11.6% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 8.02 | 6.87 | -1.9 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 26 | 17 | 95 | 431 | 55 | 18 | 24 | 11.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.42 | 5.75 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 89 | 374 | 50 | 26 | 15 | 13.5% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 5.87 | 5.40 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 85 | 357 | 49 | 26 | 14 | 13.6% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 5.55 | 5.42 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 80 | 339 | 46 | 25 | 13 | 13.6% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 5.46 | 5.47 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 49 | 22 | 13 | 15.2% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 5.33 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 44 | 22 | 12 | 14.7% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 5.38 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 195 | 146 | 879 | 3818 | 521 | 249 | 171 | 13.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.03 | 5.23 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 33 | 200 | 869 | 119 | 57 | 39 | 13.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.03 | 5.23 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Rogers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.40 | 13.5% | 7.0% | 3.9% | — | 5.40 | 14.1% | 6.9% | 241 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Edgar Osuna L 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.08 | 10.0% | 7.2% | 3.5% | .373 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 175 | 77 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.73 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.06 | 4.33 | 445 | 77 |
| Travis Blackley L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .324 | 4.45 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.44 | 3.85 | 225 | 75 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.82 | 13.0% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .316 | 5.24 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 185 | +0.42 | 3.45 | 512 | 75 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.18 | 15.0% | 7.8% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.24 | 16.7% | 8.4% | 92 | -0.94 | 2.79 | 225 | 74 |
| Travis Wood L 2024 · 5.71 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.71 | 14.9% | 10.3% | 4.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 256 | 72 |
| Anthony Vasquez L 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 32 | SP- | 6.01 | 14.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | .383 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 642 | 70 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.48 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 4.9% | .288 | 3.77 | 25.2% | 15.4% | 175 | -1.71 | 2.83 | 845 | 65 |
| Jaime García L 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.94 | 19.8% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 540 | 65 |
| Pat Dean L 2024 · 6.77 FIP | 30 | SP- | 6.77 | 11.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 424 | 65 |
| Craig Breslow L 2028 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 60 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.66 | 10.9% | 8.2% | 4.4% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 368 | 59 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2025 · 5.25 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.25 | 12.0% | 10.8% | 3.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 360 | 58 |
| Derek Holland L 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.81 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 5.7% | .268 | 5.12 | 22.6% | 13.0% | 129 | -0.69 | 3.76 | 686 | 56 |
| Josh Outman L 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.09 | 12.7% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .322 | 6.57 | 12.9% | -5.6% | 34 | +1.48 | 4.54 | 106 | 55 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 54 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.61 | 16.8% | 11.3% | 4.5% | .380 | 4.00 | 18.5% | 5.4% | 36 | -1.61 | 3.06 | 299 | 53 |
| Neal Cotts L 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 51 |
| John Lannan L 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.85 | 8.2% | 7.7% | 2.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 284 | 50 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.86 | 13.1% | 14.2% | 2.0% | .365 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 333 | 49 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.