Tyler Mahle — OGILVIE

Tyler Mahle P Atlanta Braves

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 212 lbs MLB peak 0.9 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION141 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10394vR 86

ERA3.35

FIP3.61

K%21.4%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p3423.0%

p5122.3%

xwOBA vs

p520.310

SL (7%)

CT (15%)

FB-5.5 (49%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	20	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	27	26	152	620	135	25	7	96%	5.6	16.1%	4.8%	11.4%	1.4%	2.43	3.09	—
2015	20	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	27	26	152	620	135	25	7	96%	5.6	21.8%	4.0%	17.7%	1.1%	2.43	2.42	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	151	617	141	37	18	100%	5.6	18.0%	6.7%	11.3%	3.7%	3.64	4.45	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	151	617	141	37	18	100%	5.6	22.9%	6.0%	16.9%	2.9%	3.64	3.52	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	164	656	152	39	9	100%	5.9	19.7%	6.3%	13.4%	1.3%	2.14	2.94	+4.1
2017	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	164	656	152	39	9	100%	5.9	23.2%	5.9%	17.2%	1.4%	2.14	2.67	+4.7
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	142	629	130	57	26	100%	5.1	20.3%	9.1%	11.1%	3.9%	4.51	4.71	+0.3
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	142	629	130	57	26	100%	5.1	20.7%	9.1%	11.6%	4.1%	4.51	4.86	+0.1
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	139	593	142	37	25	100%	5.0	23.2%	6.1%	17.1%	4.2%	5.06	4.20	+1.1
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	139	593	142	37	25	100%	5.0	23.9%	6.2%	17.7%	4.2%	5.06	4.20	+1.2
2020	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	10	9	48	201	60	21	6	90%	4.8	29.9%	10.4%	19.4%	2.8%	3.59	3.42	+0.9
2020	25	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	10	9	48	201	60	21	6	90%	4.8	29.9%	10.4%	19.4%	3.0%	3.59	3.54	+0.8
2021	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	33	33	180	759	210	64	24	100%	5.5	27.7%	8.4%	19.2%	2.9%	3.75	3.44	+3.2
2021	26	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	33	33	180	759	210	64	24	100%	5.5	27.7%	8.4%	19.2%	3.2%	3.75	3.57	+2.9
2022	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	23	23	121	503	126	43	16	100%	5.2	25.0%	8.5%	16.5%	3.2%	4.40	3.80	+1.6
2022	27	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	23	23	121	503	126	43	16	100%	5.2	25.0%	8.5%	16.5%	3.2%	4.40	3.80	+1.6
2023	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	5	5	26	102	28	5	5	100%	5.1	27.5%	4.9%	22.5%	4.9%	3.16	4.08	+0.2
2023	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	5	5	26	102	28	5	5	100%	5.1	27.5%	4.9%	22.5%	4.9%	3.16	4.08	+0.2
2023	28	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	5	5	26	102	28	5	5	100%	5.1	27.5%	4.9%	22.5%	4.9%	3.16	4.04	+0.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	9	9	31	122	28	8	1	100%	3.4	17.9%	7.1%	10.7%	1.7%	3.52	3.41	+0.6
2024	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	9	9	31	122	28	8	1	100%	3.4	17.9%	7.1%	10.7%	1.7%	3.52	3.41	+0.6
2024	29	MIX RAW	4 levels	9	9	31	122	28	8	1	100%	3.4	23.0%	6.6%	16.4%	0.8%	3.52	2.48	+0.9
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	94	377	76	31	6	100%	4.9	19.1%	8.4%	10.7%	1.3%	2.49	3.29	+1.9
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	94	377	76	31	6	100%	4.9	19.1%	8.4%	10.7%	1.3%	2.49	3.29	+1.9
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	94	377	76	31	6	100%	4.9	20.2%	8.2%	11.9%	1.6%	2.49	3.30	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			167	166	873	3692	880	299	122	99%	5.2	23.8%	8.1%	15.7%	3.3%	4.04	3.93	+10.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	26	26	141	584	130	48	18	100%	5.4	22.3%	7.5%	14.7%	3.2%	3.89	3.91	+1.7
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	26	26	141	584	130	48	18	100%	5.4	22.3%	7.5%	14.7%	3.2%	3.89	3.91	+1.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	ATL	1	1	3	14	3	5	0	100%	3.0	21.4%	35.7%	-14.3%	0.0%	3.00	5.81	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	ATL	25	25	138	570	127	43	18	100%	5.5	22.3%	7.5%	14.7%	3.2%	3.91	3.91	+1.6
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	ATL	25	25	138	570	127	43	18	100%	5.5	22.3%	7.5%	14.7%	3.2%	3.91	3.91	+1.6
ROS	31	MLB MLE	ATL	2	2	13	53	11	4	1	100%	6.3	21.4%	7.9%	13.5%	2.4%	3.35	3.61	+0.2
ROS	31	MLB CTX	ATL	2	2	13	55	12	4	1	100%	6.5	21.4%	7.9%	13.5%	2.4%	3.35	3.61	+0.2
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	154	637	141	52	19	—	—	22.2%	8.2%	14.0%	3.0%	3.85	3.88	+1.9
FULL	31	MLB A+C	ATL	—	—	151	636	141	52	19	—	—	22.2%	8.2%	14.0%	3.0%	3.93	3.93	+1.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	47	197	40	16	6	100%	5.8	20.3%	8.3%	12.0%	3.0%	4.23	4.44	+0.3
2028	33	MLB MLE	ATL	7	7	43	181	35	16	6	100%	6.1	19.4%	8.7%	10.7%	3.2%	4.52	4.72	+0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	47	198	40	16	6	100%	5.9	20.3%	8.3%	12.0%	3.0%	4.23	4.44	+0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	43	182	35	16	6	100%	6.1	19.4%	8.7%	10.7%	3.2%	4.52	4.72	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		184	183	975	4123	966	335	135	99%	5.3	23.4%	8.1%	15.3%	3.3%	4.06	3.95	+11.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	38	200	846	198	69	28	99%	5.3	23.4%	8.1%	15.3%	3.3%	4.06	3.95	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		263	261	1387	5763	1253	423	163	99%	5.3	21.7%	7.3%	14.4%	2.8%	3.58	3.75	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	38	200	831	181	61	24	99%	5.3	21.7%	7.3%	14.4%	2.8%	3.58	3.75	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Mahle (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	18.7%	8.4%	2.2%	—	4.57	19.9%	11.4%	90	+0.41	—	—	—
Jose Oyervides R 2015 · 3.01 FIP	33	SP	3.01	19.1%	6.2%	1.4%	.333	4.09	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.08	3.01	407	77
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	76
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	75
Hector Ambriz R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	32	SP	3.63	16.0%	6.4%	2.0%	.273	6.40	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.77	3.63	155	75
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	74
Charlie Morton R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	31	SP	3.63	17.9%	6.3%	2.3%	.302	3.22	27.7%	18.9%	331	-0.41	2.52	1,534	73
Guillermo Moscoso R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	33	SP	3.77	14.5%	6.9%	1.8%	.270	4.64	14.9%	7.5%	176	+0.87	3.77	264	72
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	72
Matt Cain R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	31	SP-	4.95	18.1%	7.8%	4.4%	.313	4.82	13.2%	5.6%	124	-0.13	4.82	294	72
Miguel González R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.23	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.30	3.72	469	72
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	72
Jair Jurrjens R 2017 · 4.27 FIP	31	SP	4.27	16.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	125	71
Ramon Ramirez R 2015 · 3.65 FIP	32	SP	3.65	16.9%	9.7%	1.4%	.310	5.25	9.2%	-4.9%	29	+1.60	3.65	155	71
Tim Lincecum R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SP	4.20	18.0%	10.8%	2.3%	.296	5.02	17.4%	6.3%	89	+0.82	4.20	166	70
Jake Peavy R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	34	SP	4.07	17.3%	5.7%	3.1%	.278	4.35	19.6%	12.9%	119	+0.28	4.07	262	70
Mitch Talbot R 2018 · 3.82 FIP	34	SP	3.82	13.7%	5.6%	2.1%	.281	5.01	13.2%	8.9%	59	+1.19	3.82	162	70
Manuel Flores R 2017 · 3.46 FIP	31	SP	3.46	15.8%	4.7%	2.0%	.305	4.32	17.1%	9.7%	122	+0.86	3.46	515	70
Justin Verlander R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	32	SP	3.44	21.1%	5.8%	2.5%	.265	3.25	29.6%	23.4%	648	-0.19	2.32	1,584	70
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	69
Chris Bassitt R 2020 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP	3.53	21.1%	6.5%	2.5%	.273	3.54	23.2%	16.7%	539	+0.01	3.02	1,554	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	19.4%	8.5%	1.07	4.20
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86