Tyler Mahle
P
San Francisco Giants
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 212 lbs
MLB
peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION81 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 92
ERA3.74
FIP4.01
K%20.6%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%11.6%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 133 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p4721.7%
xwOBA vs
p450.317
SL (11%)
CT (15%)
SI (1%)
FB-5.5 (49%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | A | Dayton Dragons | 27 | 26 | 152 | 620 | 135 | 25 | 7 | 96% | 5.6 | 16.1% | 4.8% | 11.4% | 1.3% | 2.43 | 3.04 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A | Dayton Dragons | 27 | 26 | 152 | 620 | 135 | 25 | 7 | 96% | 5.6 | 21.8% | 4.0% | 17.7% | 1.1% | 2.43 | 2.42 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 151 | 617 | 141 | 37 | 18 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 11.3% | 3.8% | 3.64 | 4.53 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 151 | 617 | 141 | 37 | 18 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.9% | 6.0% | 16.9% | 2.9% | 3.64 | 3.52 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 164 | 656 | 152 | 39 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 6.3% | 13.4% | 1.1% | 2.14 | 2.85 | +4.9 |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 164 | 656 | 152 | 39 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 5.9% | 17.2% | 1.4% | 2.14 | 2.67 | +5.2 |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 142 | 629 | 130 | 57 | 26 | 100% | 5.1 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 4.51 | 4.76 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 142 | 629 | 130 | 57 | 26 | 100% | 5.1 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 4.1% | 4.51 | 4.86 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 139 | 593 | 142 | 37 | 25 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.2% | 6.1% | 17.1% | 4.3% | 5.06 | 4.25 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 139 | 593 | 142 | 37 | 25 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.9% | 6.2% | 17.7% | 4.2% | 5.06 | 4.20 | +2.0 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 10 | 9 | 48 | 201 | 60 | 21 | 6 | 90% | 4.8 | 29.9% | 10.4% | 19.4% | 2.8% | 3.59 | 3.46 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 10 | 9 | 48 | 201 | 60 | 21 | 6 | 90% | 4.8 | 29.9% | 10.4% | 19.4% | 3.0% | 3.59 | 3.54 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 33 | 33 | 180 | 759 | 210 | 64 | 24 | 100% | 5.5 | 27.7% | 8.4% | 19.2% | 3.0% | 3.75 | 3.48 | +4.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 33 | 33 | 180 | 759 | 210 | 64 | 24 | 100% | 5.5 | 27.7% | 8.4% | 19.2% | 3.2% | 3.75 | 3.57 | +3.9 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 23 | 23 | 121 | 503 | 126 | 43 | 16 | 100% | 5.2 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 16.5% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 3.80 | +2.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 23 | 23 | 121 | 503 | 126 | 43 | 16 | 100% | 5.2 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 16.5% | 3.2% | 4.40 | 3.80 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 5 | 5 | 26 | 102 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 100% | 5.1 | 27.5% | 4.9% | 22.5% | 4.9% | 3.16 | 4.07 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 5 | 5 | 26 | 102 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 100% | 5.1 | 27.5% | 4.9% | 22.5% | 4.9% | 3.16 | 4.04 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 9 | 9 | 31 | 122 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 100% | 3.4 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 1.7% | 3.52 | 3.45 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 9 | 9 | 31 | 122 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 100% | 3.4 | 23.0% | 6.6% | 16.4% | 0.8% | 3.52 | 2.48 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 94 | 377 | 76 | 31 | 6 | 100% | 4.9 | 19.1% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 1.4% | 2.49 | 3.32 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 94 | 377 | 76 | 31 | 6 | 100% | 4.9 | 20.2% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 1.6% | 2.49 | 3.30 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 16 | 16 | 81 | 351 | 76 | 37 | 12 | 100% | 5.1 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 5.22 | 4.43 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | SF | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 3.74 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | SF | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 45 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 2.6% | 3.68 | 3.95 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | SF | — | — | 133 | 571 | 121 | 57 | 18 | — | — | 21.2% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.26 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | SF | — | — | 130 | 549 | 121 | 57 | 18 | — | — | 22.1% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.32 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SF | 8 | 8 | 47 | 197 | 38 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 43 | 181 | 34 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.6% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | SF | 6 | 6 | 39 | 164 | 29 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.7% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 5.05 | 5.25 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SF | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 39 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 34 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.6% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | SF | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 29 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.5 | 17.7% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 5.17 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 189 | 188 | 993 | 4221 | 972 | 361 | 139 | 99% | 5.3 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 3.3% | 4.22 | 4.04 | +15.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 38 | 200 | 850 | 196 | 73 | 28 | 99% | 5.3 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 3.3% | 4.22 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 253 | 251 | 1327 | 5530 | 1199 | 413 | 159 | 99% | 5.2 | 21.7% | 7.5% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 3.64 | 3.79 | +25.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 38 | 200 | 833 | 181 | 62 | 24 | 99% | 5.2 | 21.7% | 7.5% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 3.64 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Mahle (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 18.7% | 8.4% | 2.2% | — | 4.94 | 18.7% | 8.9% | 128 | +0.76 | — | — | — |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2027 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 75 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2028 · 2.98 FIP | 33 | SP | 2.98 | 19.1% | 6.2% | 1.3% | .333 | 4.17 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 184 | +1.19 | 2.98 | 407 | 74 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.20 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .296 | 5.09 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 89 | +0.89 | 4.20 | 166 | 74 |
| Tyler Herron R 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 74 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.44 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .273 | 6.28 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.84 | 3.44 | 155 | 74 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 74 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.92 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.71 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 142 | +0.79 | 3.92 | 277 | 73 |
| Miguel González R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.59 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.34 | 3.73 | 469 | 73 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 73 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 72 |
| Ramon Ramirez R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.46 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 1.0% | .310 | 5.09 | 9.2% | -4.9% | 29 | +1.63 | 3.46 | 155 | 72 |
| Charlie Morton R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .302 | 3.11 | 27.7% | 18.9% | 331 | -0.44 | 2.55 | 1,534 | 72 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .313 | 4.83 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 4.83 | 294 | 71 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.57 | 22.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .266 | 4.61 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 90 | +0.04 | 3.61 | 605 | 71 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.65 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 262 | 71 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.70 | 13.7% | 5.6% | 1.9% | .281 | 5.05 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 59 | +1.35 | 3.70 | 162 | 70 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 70 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.03 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 248 | 70 |
| Jake Peavy R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.09 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | .278 | 4.36 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 119 | +0.27 | 4.09 | 262 | 70 |
| Scott Feldman R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.18 | 13.5% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.35 | 18.4% | 12.4% | 188 | +0.17 | 3.92 | 297 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 45 | 18.7% | 9.4% | 1.15 | 4.50 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |