Tyler Mahle — OGILVIE

Tyler Mahle P San Francisco Giants

+0.4 WAR

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 212 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2026

ERA3.50

FIP4.05

xFIP3.83

SIERA4.21

K%20.3%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%11.9%

IP54

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2026

K†4545

FB Velo

p2392.6

Whiff%

p2922.3%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.371

SL (9%)

CT (16%)

SI (2%)

FB-5.5 (50%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	20	A	Dayton Dragons	27	26	152	620	135	25	7	16.1%	4.8%	1.4%	2.43	3.11	+3.8
2016	21	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	27	27	151	617	141	37	18	18.0%	6.7%	3.7%	3.64	4.45	+1.5
2017	22	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	28	28	164	656	152	39	9	19.7%	6.3%	1.4%	2.14	2.98	+4.3
2018	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	28	28	142	629	130	57	26	20.3%	9.1%	3.7%	4.51	4.60	+1.1
2019	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	28	28	139	593	142	37	25	23.2%	6.1%	4.4%	5.06	4.36	+1.5
2020	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	10	9	48	201	60	21	6	29.9%	10.4%	2.7%	3.59	3.38	+0.8
2021	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	33	33	180	759	210	64	24	27.7%	8.4%	2.9%	3.75	3.44	+3.8
2022	27	MLB	Minnesota Twins	23	23	121	503	126	43	16	25.0%	8.5%	3.0%	4.40	3.69	+2.2
2023	28	MLB	Minnesota Twins	5	5	26	102	28	5	5	27.5%	4.9%	5.3%	3.16	4.33	+0.2
2024	29	MLB	Texas Rangers	9	9	31	122	28	8	1	17.9%	7.1%	1.7%	3.52	3.44	+0.5
2025	30	MLB	Texas Rangers	19	19	94	377	76	31	6	19.1%	8.4%	1.5%	2.49	3.37	+2.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	San Francisco Giants	4	4	19	88	21	12	6	23.9%	13.6%	6.8%	7.23	6.55	-0.3
ROS	31	MLB	CIN	32	—	32	134	27	13	4	20.3%	9.4%	2.9%	3.44	4.15	+0.3
2026 Total	31	MLB	CIN	—	—	50	222	48	25	10	21.7%	11.1%	4.4%	4.84	5.04	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	CIN	45	—	45	190	38	18	6	19.8%	9.6%	3.0%	4.35	4.69	+0.1
2028	33	MLB	CIN	40	—	40	169	32	17	5	19.2%	9.8%	3.1%	4.63	4.81	+0.1
2029	34	MLB	CIN	35	—	35	149	28	15	5	18.5%	10.0%	3.2%	4.82	4.95	0.0
2030	35	MLB	CIN	31	—	31	131	23	13	4	17.7%	10.2%	3.3%	4.99	5.10	-0.1
2031	36	MLB	CIN	27	—	27	114	19	12	4	17.0%	10.5%	3.5%	5.16	5.27	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			241	239	1265	5267	1144	391	152	21.7%	7.4%	2.9%	3.59	3.79	+21.7
/ 200 IP	—			38	38	200	833	181	62	24	21.7%	7.4%	2.9%	3.59	3.79	+3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Mahle (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	19.0%	8.4%	2.3%	—	4.81	19.2%	9.4%	121	+0.62	—	—	—
Chris Leroux R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	31	SW	4.22	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.06	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.16	4.06	219	81
Luis Angel Daniel R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	31	SW	4.61	13.4%	8.9%	2.8%	.286	4.13	9.8%	0.3%	53	-0.48	4.13	156	80
Jared Hughes R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	31	SW	4.38	13.2%	7.4%	2.6%	.283	3.66	19.4%	11.5%	210	-0.72	2.96	358	79
Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	31	SW	4.49	13.5%	6.7%	3.1%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	149	79
Francisco Rodriguez R 2027 · 4.81 FIP	32	SW	4.81	11.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.281	4.04	12.1%	4.4%	139	-0.77	3.17	273	78
Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP	33	SW	4.63	16.3%	8.6%	3.3%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.39	4.11	186	78
Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	32	SW	4.53	15.9%	8.0%	3.2%	.268	4.27	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.26	3.50	292	78
Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.79 FIP	30	SW	4.79	14.8%	7.3%	3.7%	.311	4.68	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.93	337	77
Vin Mazzaro R 2024 · 4.06 FIP	29	SW	4.06	13.6%	10.2%	1.5%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	126	77
Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	31	SW	3.80	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.51	3.15	485	77
Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	31	SW	4.53	16.0%	7.6%	3.3%	.270	4.84	19.3%	9.7%	63	+0.31	2.99	227	77
Fernando Villalobos R 2026 · 4.03 FIP	31	SW	4.03	12.3%	8.6%	1.6%	.305	4.70	10.6%	2.6%	55	+0.67	4.03	152	76
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	31	SW	4.37	9.8%	9.5%	1.6%	.307	3.54	13.2%	7.9%	80	-0.83	2.23	173	76
Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	16.7%	8.6%	3.4%	.282	3.52	20.9%	15.1%	136	-1.13	3.01	260	76
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2026 · 4.80 FIP	31	SW	4.80	8.9%	6.6%	2.9%	.346	4.86	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.06	4.80	104	75
Blaine Boyer R 2029 · 3.78 FIP	34	SW	3.78	12.3%	5.6%	1.8%	.265	4.12	12.5%	5.9%	144	+0.34	3.32	209	75
Alfredo Aceves R 2027 · 4.99 FIP	32	SW	4.99	10.0%	6.2%	3.5%	.244	4.90	9.9%	2.0%	107	-0.09	4.78	160	75
Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	31	SW	3.75	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.96	3.75	521	75
Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.81 FIP	32	SU	4.81	15.0%	8.3%	3.5%	.314	3.37	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.44	3.37	144	74
Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP	30	SW	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	158	74

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.