Tyler Mahle

P Atlanta Braves

Age 32 RHP 6'3" / 212 lbs MLB Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX4 levels	9	9	31	3.52	2.48	23.0%	6.6%	1.1	K 17.9% · BB 7.1% · FIP 3.41
2025	30	MIX2 levels	19	19	94	2.49	3.30	20.2%	8.2%	2.4	K 19.1% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.29
2026	31	MIX2 levels	28	28	152	3.97	3.98	22.3%	8.1%	2.6	K 22.3% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.95
2027PROJ	32	MLBATL	13	13	79	4.04	4.26	20.9%	7.7%	1.1
2028PROJ	33	MLBATL	11	11	68	4.34	4.54	20.1%	8.2%	0.7
2029PROJ	34	MLBATL	8	8	50	4.64	4.85	19.2%	8.7%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service9.105First FA2028NTC

2027Ext / FA-deal$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs56

K%51

FB Velo26

Form2.35 ERA (proj 4.04) · K 21.4% (proj 20.9%) · BB 3.4% (proj 7.7%) ▲ last 60d · 31 IP through Oct 27

CompsTim Adleman (age 31) · Miguel González (age 32) · Merrill Kelly (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110102vR 93

ERA4.04

FIP4.26

K%20.9%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%13.2%

Proj IP79

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p3322.9%

p5122.3%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 9.105 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+1.1	$9M	+$0.6M
Totals		$8M		$9M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	27	26	152	620	135	25	7	96%	5.6	16.1%	4.8%	11.4%	1.4%	2.43	3.09	—
2015	20	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	27	26	152	620	135	25	7	96%	5.6	21.8%	4.0%	17.7%	1.1%	2.43	2.42	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	151	617	141	37	18	100%	5.6	18.0%	6.7%	11.3%	3.7%	3.64	4.45	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	151	617	141	37	18	100%	5.6	22.9%	6.0%	16.9%	2.9%	3.64	3.52	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	164	656	152	39	9	100%	5.9	19.7%	6.3%	13.4%	1.3%	2.14	2.94	+5.1
2017	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	164	656	152	39	9	100%	5.9	23.2%	5.9%	17.2%	1.4%	2.14	2.67	+5.7
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	142	629	130	57	26	100%	5.1	20.3%	9.1%	11.1%	3.9%	4.51	4.71	+1.1
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	142	629	130	57	26	100%	5.1	20.7%	9.1%	11.6%	4.1%	4.51	4.86	+0.9
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	139	593	142	37	25	100%	5.0	23.2%	6.1%	17.1%	4.2%	5.06	4.20	+2.0
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	139	593	142	37	25	100%	5.0	23.9%	6.2%	17.7%	4.2%	5.06	4.20	+2.0
2020	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	10	9	48	201	60	21	6	90%	4.8	29.9%	10.4%	19.4%	2.8%	3.59	3.42	+1.2
2020	25	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	10	9	48	201	60	21	6	90%	4.8	29.9%	10.4%	19.4%	3.0%	3.59	3.54	+1.1
2021	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	33	33	180	759	210	64	24	100%	5.5	27.7%	8.4%	19.2%	2.9%	3.75	3.44	+4.3
2021	26	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	33	33	180	759	210	64	24	100%	5.5	27.7%	8.4%	19.2%	3.2%	3.75	3.57	+4.0
2022	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	23	23	121	503	126	43	16	100%	5.2	25.0%	8.5%	16.5%	3.2%	4.40	3.80	+2.3
2022	27	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	23	23	121	503	126	43	16	100%	5.2	25.0%	8.5%	16.5%	3.2%	4.40	3.80	+2.3
2023	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	5	5	26	102	28	5	5	100%	5.1	27.5%	4.9%	22.5%	4.9%	3.16	4.08	+0.4
2023	28	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	5	5	26	102	28	5	5	100%	5.1	27.5%	4.9%	22.5%	4.9%	3.16	4.04	+0.4
2024	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	9	9	31	122	28	8	1	100%	3.4	17.9%	7.1%	10.7%	1.7%	3.52	3.41	+0.7
2024	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	9	9	31	122	28	8	1	100%	3.4	17.9%	7.1%	10.7%	1.7%	3.52	3.41	+0.7
2024	29	MIX RAW	4 levels	9	9	31	122	28	8	1	100%	3.4	23.0%	6.6%	16.4%	0.8%	3.52	2.48	+1.1
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	94	377	76	31	6	100%	4.9	19.1%	8.4%	10.7%	1.3%	2.49	3.29	+2.4
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	94	377	76	31	6	100%	4.9	19.1%	8.4%	10.7%	1.3%	2.49	3.29	+2.4
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	94	377	76	31	6	100%	4.9	20.2%	8.2%	11.9%	1.6%	2.49	3.30	+2.4
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	152	628	140	51	20	100%	5.4	22.3%	7.5%	14.8%	3.3%	3.97	3.95	+2.6
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	152	628	140	51	20	100%	5.4	22.3%	7.5%	14.8%	3.3%	3.97	3.95	+2.6
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	152	628	140	51	20	100%	5.4	22.3%	8.1%	14.2%	3.2%	3.97	3.98	+2.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			169	168	884	3736	890	302	124	99%	5.2	23.8%	8.1%	15.7%	3.3%	4.05	3.93	+15.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	ATL	13	13	79	334	70	26	10	100%	6.1	20.9%	7.7%	13.2%	2.9%	4.04	4.26	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	68	286	57	23	9	100%	6.2	20.1%	8.2%	11.9%	3.1%	4.34	4.54	+0.7
2029	34	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	50	212	41	18	7	100%	6.3	19.2%	8.7%	10.5%	3.4%	4.64	4.85	+0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	68	287	58	23	9	100%	6.2	20.1%	8.2%	11.9%	3.1%	4.34	4.54	+0.7
2029	34	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	50	211	41	18	7	100%	6.2	19.2%	8.7%	10.5%	3.4%	4.64	4.85	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		189	188	1002	4234	988	344	140	99%	5.3	23.3%	8.1%	15.2%	3.3%	4.10	3.98	+17.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	37	200	845	197	69	28	99%	5.3	23.3%	8.1%	15.2%	3.3%	4.10	3.98	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		265	263	1398	5807	1263	426	165	99%	5.3	21.8%	7.3%	14.4%	2.8%	3.59	3.76	+16.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	38	200	831	181	61	24	99%	5.3	21.8%	7.3%	14.4%	2.8%	3.59	3.76	+3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 7 IPFIP 2.96 → 3.63 (+0.66)K% 32.3% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.26%	—	×0.860	27.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×0.900	5.81%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷0.913	×1.100	3.88%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 2.96 → 3.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARound Rock Express · 9 IPFIP 1.82 → 2.03 (+0.21)K% 24.2% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.24%	—	×0.860	20.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×0.900	5.45%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.928	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.82 → 2.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 6 IPFIP 1.81 → 2.22 (+0.40)K% 21.7% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.74%	—	×0.810	17.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.100	4.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.080	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 1.81 → 2.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALouisville Bats · 9 IPFIP 1.16 → 1.57 (+0.41)K% 35.1% → 30.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.14%	—	×0.880	30.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.11%	—	×1.050	8.51%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.957	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 1.16 → 1.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAALouisville Bats · 30 IPFIP 4.66 → 5.09 (+0.43)K% 16.4% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.39%	—	×0.880	14.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.02%	—	×1.050	9.47%
HR / BF /BF	3.28%	÷0.988	×1.100	3.65%

Result: FIP 4.66 → 5.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 85 IPFIP 2.30 → 2.68 (+0.37)K% 26.9% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.93%	—	×0.810	21.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.95%	—	×1.100	5.45%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷1.399	×1.200	1.33%

Result: FIP 2.30 → 2.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAALouisville Bats · 59 IPFIP 2.91 → 3.21 (+0.30)K% 21.2% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.16%	—	×0.880	18.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.39%	—	×1.050	5.66%
HR / BF /BF	1.66%	÷1.042	×1.100	1.75%

Result: FIP 2.91 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 71 IPFIP 4.28 → 5.33 (+1.06)K% 21.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.04%	—	×0.810	17.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.47%	—	×1.100	7.12%
HR / BF /BF	3.88%	÷0.924	×1.200	5.04%

Result: FIP 4.28 → 5.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Mahle (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.67	19.7%	11.3%	118	+0.41	—	—	—
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	76
Miguel González R 2016 · 3.72 FIP	32	SP	3.72	17.8%	5.8%	2.5%	.295	4.71	14.1%	6.3%	168	+0.99	3.72	905	70
Merrill Kelly R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	32	SP	4.00	19.5%	5.7%	3.3%	.297	3.80	23.4%	15.3%	452	-0.20	3.60	1,170	69
Rolando Arrojo R 2000 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	16.1%	8.0%	3.1%	.291	3.68	16.4%	9.2%	185	-0.79	3.50	700	69
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2019 · 3.77 FIP	32	SP	3.77	19.4%	8.9%	2.2%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	689	69
Mike Fiers R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	32	SP	5.12	21.8%	9.2%	4.9%	.290	4.88	17.5%	11.5%	416	-0.24	2.83	1,140	67
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	66
Manuel Flores R 2017 · 3.46 FIP	31	SP	3.46	15.8%	4.7%	2.0%	.305	4.32	17.1%	9.7%	122	+0.86	3.46	515	65
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	64
Jose Contreras R 2004 · 5.06 FIP	32	SP	5.06	19.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.273	4.06	15.8%	8.6%	590	-1.00	2.43	1,279	64
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	64
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	64
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	64
Nestor Molina R 2019 · 4.27 FIP	30	SP	4.27	16.1%	7.4%	2.9%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	401	63
Hiroki Kuroda R 2008 · 3.31 FIP	33	SP	3.31	14.9%	4.4%	1.7%	.274	3.36	19.1%	14.4%	516	+0.05	2.96	1,319	62
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	61
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	61
Logan Verrett R 2022 · 3.84 FIP	32	SP	3.84	17.5%	5.5%	2.8%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	550	61
Leo Medrano R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	14.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.354	4.34	11.0%	3.7%	113	+0.58	3.76	222	61
Jeremy Hefner R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	16.8%	9.1%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	322	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.4	90	23.2%	8.3%	1.27	4.10
Pete Richert ('62-'74, 13 WAR*)	5.8	90	24.4%*	8.8%*	1.26*	4.04*
Scott Bankhead ('86-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	100	21.2%*	7.3%*	1.36*	4.16*
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Joe Price ('80-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	82	23.3%*	8.8%*	1.49*	4.15*
Carlos Villanueva ('16)	5.0	91	20.4%	7.6%	1.25	4.31
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02