Conner Greene

P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	26	MIX2 levels	33	4	53	7.26	4.60	20.9%	10.9%	-0.0	K 19.6% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.67
2022	27	AAABAL	16	0	19	10.61	7.33	17.3%	20.2%	—	K 15.2% · BB 21.2% · FIP 6.89
2024	29	AAAHOU	34	5	58	4.68	4.30	23.0%	12.5%	—	K 19.8% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.68
2027PROJ	32	MLBHOU	157	0	165	4.57	4.38	25.3%	11.4%	0.3
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBHOU	53	0	56	4.61	4.65	24.1%	11.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBHOU	42	0	44	4.79	4.92	23.0%	11.7%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021

Whiff%79

FB Velo71

K%45

xwOBA vs44

CompsKenshin Kawakami (age 34) · Elian Leyva (age 30) · Mitch Lively (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.57

FIP4.38

K%25.3%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%13.9%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF6060

CTRL3040

CMD3040

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p7929.8%

p4521.5%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

FB-1.9

SL-4.0

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	132	557	115	39	6	100%	5.1	15.7%	8.0%	7.6%	1.3%	3.54	3.53	—
2015	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	132	557	115	39	6	100%	5.1	20.6%	7.0%	13.6%	1.1%	3.54	2.84	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	146	633	99	71	10	100%	5.4	12.3%	12.6%	-0.3%	1.8%	3.51	4.65	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	146	633	99	71	10	100%	5.4	15.6%	11.2%	4.4%	1.6%	3.51	4.09	—
2017	22	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	26	25	133	611	92	82	7	96%	5.1	12.2%	14.8%	-2.6%	1.2%	5.29	4.59	—
2017	22	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	26	25	133	611	92	82	7	96%	5.1	15.1%	13.4%	1.6%	1.1%	5.29	4.25	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	10	88	393	69	63	3	25%	2.2	14.7%	17.2%	-2.6%	0.9%	4.09	4.52	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	10	88	393	69	63	3	25%	2.2	17.6%	16.0%	1.5%	0.8%	4.09	4.12	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	16	112	503	95	54	13	55%	3.9	15.4%	11.7%	3.8%	3.3%	5.13	5.11	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	16	112	503	95	54	13	55%	3.9	18.9%	10.7%	8.2%	2.6%	5.13	4.36	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	4	53	258	54	28	8	12%	1.6	19.6%	11.2%	8.4%	3.3%	7.26	4.67	-0.1
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	4	53	258	54	28	8	12%	1.6	20.9%	10.9%	10.1%	3.1%	7.26	4.60	-0.0
2022	27	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	16	0	19	104	18	21	4	0%	1.2	15.2%	21.2%	-6.0%	4.4%	10.61	6.89	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	16	0	19	104	18	21	4	0%	1.2	17.3%	20.2%	-2.9%	3.8%	10.61	7.33	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	34	5	58	256	59	32	7	15%	1.7	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	3.3%	4.68	4.68	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	34	5	58	256	59	32	7	15%	1.7	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	3.3%	4.68	4.68	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	34	5	58	256	59	32	7	15%	1.7	23.0%	12.5%	10.5%	2.7%	4.68	4.30	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			24	1	25	121	26	11	1	4%	1.1	21.5%	9.1%	12.4%	0.8%	7.11	2.86	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	HOU	157	0	165	697	176	79	20	0%	1.1	25.3%	11.4%	13.9%	2.9%	4.57	4.38	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	HOU	144	0	151	639	154	73	20	0%	1.1	24.1%	11.5%	12.6%	3.2%	4.61	4.65	-0.2
2029	34	MLB MLE	HOU	131	0	138	582	134	68	20	0%	1.1	23.0%	11.7%	11.3%	3.5%	4.79	4.92	-0.6
2028	33	MLB CTX	HOU	53	0	56	236	57	27	8	0%	1.1	24.1%	11.5%	12.6%	3.2%	4.61	4.65	-0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	HOU	42	0	44	186	43	22	6	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.7%	11.3%	3.5%	4.79	4.92	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		119	1	125	544	126	60	15	1%	1.1	23.1%	11.0%	12.1%	2.8%	5.18	4.06	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	2	200	867	201	96	24	1%	1.1	23.1%	11.0%	12.1%	2.8%	5.18	4.06	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		231	113	741	3315	492	421	68	49%	3.2	14.9%	12.7%	2.2%	2.0%	4.69	4.58	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	30	200	894	133	114	18	49%	3.2	14.9%	12.7%	2.2%	2.0%	4.69	4.58	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Conner Greene (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	25.3%	11.4%	2.9%	—	4.78	23.6%	12.0%	289	+0.40	—	—	—
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	54
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	54
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	51
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	51
Hector Noesí R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	32	SP-	5.11	22.3%	7.2%	5.4%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	613	48
Nick Martinez R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.0%	8.5%	2.5%	.286	3.71	17.3%	13.0%	488	+0.09	2.94	1,288	47
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	47
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	14.0%	6.6%	4.2%	.268	5.28	17.5%	9.7%	166	+0.25	3.97	567	46
Todd Redmond R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SW	3.86	15.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	247	46
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.13	476	46
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	468	46
Junior Guerra R 2017 · 5.24 FIP	32	SP-	5.24	19.4%	12.8%	3.9%	.255	3.99	22.2%	12.5%	248	-1.25	3.18	646	46
Toru Murata R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	31	SW	3.63	12.9%	5.7%	1.6%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	267	46
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	45
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	45
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	44
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	44
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	44
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	44
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	43

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	120	24.0%	11.4%	1.17	4.78
Slim Love ('13-'20, 3 WAR*)	2.6	129	26.7%*	11.5%*	1.24*	4.50*
Bill Butler ('69-'77, 2 WAR*)	3.0	99	22.0%*	11.3%*	1.30*	4.83*
Roy Walker ('12-'22, -0 WAR*)	1.9	96	20.8%*	10.8%*	1.25*	5.07*
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.4	94	21.9%	9.7%	1.25	4.45
Ian Anderson ('25)	1.4	94	22.2%	10.5%	0.99	4.22
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70