Conner Greene
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 31
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 152 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 108
ERA4.97
FIP4.76
K%24.7%
BB%13.6%
K-BB%11.2%
ROS IP153
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 152 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7196.0
Whiff%
p7929.8%
K%
p4521.5%
xwOBA vs
p440.318
FB-1.9
SL-4.0
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 132 | 557 | 115 | 39 | 6 | 100% | 5.1 | 15.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 1.3% | 3.54 | 3.51 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 132 | 557 | 115 | 39 | 6 | 100% | 5.1 | 20.6% | 7.0% | 13.6% | 1.1% | 3.54 | 2.84 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 146 | 633 | 99 | 71 | 10 | 100% | 5.4 | 12.3% | 12.6% | -0.3% | 1.8% | 3.51 | 4.64 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 146 | 633 | 99 | 71 | 10 | 100% | 5.4 | 15.6% | 11.2% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 3.51 | 4.09 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 26 | 25 | 133 | 611 | 92 | 82 | 7 | 96% | 5.1 | 12.2% | 14.8% | -2.6% | 1.0% | 5.29 | 4.51 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 26 | 25 | 133 | 611 | 92 | 82 | 7 | 96% | 5.1 | 15.1% | 13.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 5.29 | 4.25 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 10 | 88 | 393 | 69 | 63 | 3 | 25% | 2.2 | 14.7% | 17.2% | -2.6% | 0.9% | 4.09 | 4.54 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 10 | 88 | 393 | 69 | 63 | 3 | 25% | 2.2 | 17.6% | 16.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 4.09 | 4.12 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 16 | 112 | 503 | 95 | 54 | 13 | 55% | 3.9 | 15.4% | 11.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.13 | 5.30 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 16 | 112 | 503 | 95 | 54 | 13 | 55% | 3.9 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 5.13 | 4.36 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 4 | 53 | 258 | 54 | 28 | 8 | 12% | 1.6 | 19.6% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 7.26 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 4 | 53 | 258 | 54 | 28 | 8 | 12% | 1.6 | 20.9% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 7.26 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 16 | 0 | 19 | 104 | 18 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 15.2% | 21.2% | -6.0% | 4.5% | 10.61 | 6.97 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 16 | 0 | 19 | 104 | 18 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.3% | 20.2% | -2.9% | 3.8% | 10.61 | 7.33 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 34 | 5 | 58 | 256 | 59 | 32 | 7 | 15% | 1.7 | 20.3% | 13.1% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 4.68 | 5.10 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 34 | 5 | 58 | 256 | 59 | 32 | 7 | 15% | 1.7 | 23.0% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.68 | 4.30 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 157 | 0 | 165 | 697 | 172 | 95 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.97 | 4.76 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 145 | 0 | 153 | 644 | 153 | 86 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 4.96 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 133 | 0 | 140 | 591 | 134 | 79 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 13.4% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 5.07 | 5.19 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 56 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 4.96 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 73 | 0 | 77 | 325 | 74 | 44 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 13.4% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 5.07 | 5.19 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 151 | 1 | 159 | 684 | 156 | 86 | 20 | 1% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 5.35 | 4.39 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 1 | 200 | 862 | 197 | 108 | 25 | 1% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 5.35 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 231 | 113 | 741 | 3315 | 494 | 426 | 70 | 49% | 3.2 | 14.9% | 12.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 4.69 | 4.62 | +6.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 30 | 200 | 894 | 133 | 115 | 19 | 49% | 3.2 | 14.9% | 12.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 4.69 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Conner Greene (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 24.7% | 13.6% | 3.0% | — | 5.07 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 293 | +0.31 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.15 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 3.56 | 27.5% | 19.3% | 120 | -0.59 | 3.52 | 316 | 65 |
| Josh Zeid R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 64 |
| Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.71 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 474 | 61 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.87 | 15.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .260 | 4.11 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 180 | -0.76 | 2.49 | 433 | 57 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.73 | 19.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .237 | 4.51 | 14.4% | 1.1% | 56 | +0.78 | 3.73 | 725 | 57 |
| Scott Copeland R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.72 | 17.1% | 12.4% | 4.5% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 569 | 57 |
| Dillon Gee R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 380 | 56 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.04 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 3.7% | .261 | 4.12 | 22.8% | 12.5% | 96 | +0.08 | 2.88 | 533 | 55 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.58 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 4.0% | .259 | 5.41 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 218 | +0.83 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 54 |
| Josh A. Smith R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.57 | 20.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .341 | 3.72 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 59 | -0.85 | 2.71 | 598 | 54 |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 54 |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 53 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.69 | 16.2% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .281 | 3.58 | 33.6% | 23.7% | 41 | -1.11 | 3.57 | 291 | 53 |
| Kenta Maeda R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.88 | 27.1% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .240 | 3.43 | 27.8% | 22.0% | 173 | -0.45 | 2.86 | 1,092 | 52 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 52 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.92 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 51 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.37 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 4.4% | .283 | 4.35 | 14.9% | 5.3% | 144 | -1.02 | 3.91 | 577 | 51 |
| Tyson Ross R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.11 | 19.2% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .263 | 5.80 | 15.4% | 4.3% | 35 | +1.69 | 2.82 | 449 | 51 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.81 | 17.8% | 8.6% | 5.7% | .277 | 4.58 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 81 | -1.23 | 3.33 | 556 | 50 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 50 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 153 | 23.8% | 13.5% | 1.25 | 4.99 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |