Conner Greene
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.4
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.65
FIP4.65
xFIP5.19
SIERA4.39
K%22.2%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%11.5%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF6060
CTRL4545
CMD4545
K†6060
FB Velo
p7196.0
Whiff%
p7929.8%
K%
p4521.5%
xwOBA vs
p440.318
FB-1.9
SL-4.0
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 26 | 26 | 132 | 557 | 115 | 39 | 6 | 15.7% | 8.0% | 1.3% | 3.54 | 3.53 | +2.7 |
| 2016 | 21 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 27 | 27 | 146 | 633 | 99 | 71 | 10 | 12.3% | 12.6% | 1.8% | 3.51 | 4.65 | +1.1 |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 26 | 25 | 133 | 611 | 92 | 82 | 7 | 12.2% | 14.8% | 1.2% | 5.29 | 4.58 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 40 | 10 | 88 | 393 | 69 | 63 | 3 | 14.7% | 17.2% | 0.9% | 4.09 | 4.53 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 29 | 16 | 112 | 503 | 95 | 54 | 13 | 15.4% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 5.13 | 5.11 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 33 | 4 | 53 | 258 | 54 | 28 | 8 | 19.6% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 7.26 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 16 | 0 | 19 | 104 | 18 | 21 | 4 | 15.2% | 21.2% | 4.3% | 10.61 | 6.89 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 34 | 5 | 58 | 256 | 59 | 32 | 7 | 20.3% | 13.1% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 59 | 26 | 7 | 26.0% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 52 | — | 52 | 217 | 55 | 25 | 7 | 25.1% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 51 | 24 | 6 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 46 | 23 | 6 | 23.6% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 42 | 22 | 6 | 22.8% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 4.91 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 231 | 113 | 741 | 3315 | 494 | 426 | 68 | 14.9% | 12.8% | 2.1% | 4.69 | 4.60 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 30 | 200 | 894 | 133 | 115 | 18 | 14.9% | 12.8% | 2.1% | 4.69 | 4.60 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Conner Greene (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 26.0% | 11.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.58 | 24.4% | 13.0% | 147 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 85 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 83 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 82 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 82 |
| David Robertson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.30 | 28.1% | 10.5% | 2.3% | .297 | 2.39 | 34.6% | 26.8% | 138 | -0.91 | 2.00 | 494 | 80 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.39 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.70 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.31 | 2.80 | 410 | 80 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 80 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 79 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 78 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 78 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 77 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.09 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .278 | 3.53 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.56 | 2.31 | 403 | 77 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 77 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 76 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 76 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 76 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.65 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .321 | 4.65 | 17.6% | 4.6% | 23 | +1.00 | 2.88 | 249 | 76 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 75 |
| Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.25 | 27.4% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .312 | 2.66 | 29.2% | 18.8% | 81 | -0.59 | 2.39 | 556 | 75 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.