Conner Greene — OGILVIE

Conner Greene P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.83

FIP4.61

K%23.9%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF6060

CTRL3040

CMD3040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p7929.8%

p4521.5%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

FB-1.9

SL-4.0

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	132	557	115	39	6	100%	5.1	15.7%	8.0%	7.6%	1.3%	3.54	3.53	—
2015	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	132	557	115	39	6	100%	5.1	20.6%	7.0%	13.6%	1.1%	3.54	2.84	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	146	633	99	71	10	100%	5.4	12.3%	12.6%	-0.3%	1.8%	3.51	4.65	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	146	633	99	71	10	100%	5.4	15.6%	11.2%	4.4%	1.6%	3.51	4.09	—
2017	22	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	26	25	133	611	92	82	7	96%	5.1	12.2%	14.8%	-2.6%	1.2%	5.29	4.59	—
2017	22	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	26	25	133	611	92	82	7	96%	5.1	15.1%	13.4%	1.6%	1.1%	5.29	4.25	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	10	88	393	69	63	3	25%	2.2	14.7%	17.2%	-2.6%	0.9%	4.09	4.52	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	10	88	393	69	63	3	25%	2.2	17.6%	16.0%	1.5%	0.8%	4.09	4.12	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	16	112	503	95	54	13	55%	3.9	15.4%	11.7%	3.8%	3.3%	5.13	5.11	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	16	112	503	95	54	13	55%	3.9	18.9%	10.7%	8.2%	2.6%	5.13	4.36	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	4	53	258	54	28	8	12%	1.6	19.6%	11.2%	8.4%	3.3%	7.26	4.67	-0.1
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	4	53	258	54	28	8	12%	1.6	20.9%	10.9%	10.1%	3.1%	7.26	4.60	-0.0
2022	27	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	16	0	19	104	18	21	4	0%	1.2	15.2%	21.2%	-6.0%	4.4%	10.61	6.89	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	16	0	19	104	18	21	4	0%	1.2	17.3%	20.2%	-2.9%	3.8%	10.61	7.33	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	34	5	58	256	59	32	7	15%	1.7	19.1%	11.2%	7.9%	3.3%	4.68	4.74	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	34	5	58	256	59	32	7	15%	1.7	19.1%	11.2%	7.9%	3.3%	4.68	4.74	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	34	5	58	256	59	32	7	15%	1.7	23.0%	12.5%	10.5%	2.7%	4.68	4.30	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			24	1	25	121	26	11	1	4%	1.1	21.5%	9.1%	12.4%	0.8%	7.11	2.86	+0.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	HOU	12	0	13	55	13	7	2	0%	1.1	23.9%	12.2%	11.8%	2.9%	4.83	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	HOU	145	0	153	644	148	78	21	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	3.2%	4.82	4.83	-0.5
2028	33	MLB MLE	HOU	133	0	140	591	130	72	20	0%	1.1	22.0%	12.2%	9.8%	3.5%	4.95	5.07	-0.8
2027	32	MLB CTX	HOU	53	0	56	236	54	29	8	0%	1.1	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	3.2%	4.82	4.83	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	HOU	73	0	77	325	72	40	11	0%	1.1	22.0%	12.2%	9.8%	3.5%	4.95	5.07	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		151	1	159	684	152	80	20	1%	1.1	22.3%	11.6%	10.6%	2.9%	5.25	4.29	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	1	200	862	192	101	25	1%	1.1	22.3%	11.6%	10.6%	2.9%	5.25	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		231	113	741	3315	491	421	68	49%	3.2	14.8%	12.7%	2.1%	2.0%	4.69	4.58	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	30	200	894	132	114	18	49%	3.2	14.8%	12.7%	2.1%	2.0%	4.69	4.58	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Conner Greene (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	23.9%	12.2%	2.9%	—	4.94	22.5%	10.3%	293	+0.33	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2016 · 4.00 FIP	31	SP-	4.00	20.6%	9.1%	2.7%	.305	3.58	27.5%	19.3%	120	-0.42	3.51	316	66
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	65
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	58
Mike Wright Jr. R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	31	SP-	3.89	19.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.237	4.79	14.4%	1.1%	56	+0.90	3.76	725	58
Clay Buchholz R 2016 · 4.94 FIP	31	SP-	4.94	15.8%	9.2%	3.7%	.260	4.18	17.8%	11.6%	180	-0.76	2.51	433	58
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	4.34	219	58
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	56
Dillon Gee R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP-	3.85	18.0%	5.9%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	380	56
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	55
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.30	287	55
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	53
Spencer Bivens R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	29	SU	3.91	18.6%	10.6%	1.9%	.285	3.98	17.8%	11.2%	254	+0.07	3.52	390	53
Hector Noesí R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	32	SP-	5.11	22.3%	7.2%	5.4%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	52
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	52
Jerome Williams R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	33	SP-	4.72	13.4%	5.6%	3.7%	.326	5.81	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.09	4.72	195	52
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	52
Joe Blanton R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	34	SW	3.45	22.4%	4.6%	3.0%	.272	3.70	23.5%	17.0%	124	+0.25	3.01	240	52
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	327	51
Neftalí Feliz R 2018 · 4.74 FIP	30	SW	4.74	16.2%	13.7%	2.3%	.281	3.61	33.6%	23.7%	41	-1.13	3.54	291	51
Nick Martinez R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	31	SW	4.26	21.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.273	3.56	19.7%	14.0%	418	-0.70	2.94	1,134	51

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	153	23.0%	12.2%	1.23	4.86
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94