Nestor Cortes

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 32 LHP 5'10" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MLBNYY	31	30	174	3.77	3.70	22.8%	5.5%	2.5
2025	30	MIX3 levels	12	12	52	4.47	6.10	20.8%	10.2%	-0.7	K 20.3% · BB 10.8% · FIP 6.31
2026	31	AAAPHI	3	0	6	4.76	2.92	31.8%	0.0%	—	K 31.8% · BB 0.0% · FIP 2.91
2027PROJ	32	MLBPHI	7	7	46	4.58	4.88	20.7%	8.1%	0.0
2028PROJ	33	MLBPHI	6	6	43	4.93	5.16	19.9%	8.6%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

Whiff%48

K%25

FB Velo10

xwOBA vs10

CompsKwang Hyun Kim (age 32) · Matt Dermody (age 32) · Santiago Gutierrez (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 138

ERA4.58

FIP4.88

K%20.7%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%12.6%

Proj IP46

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6565

CMD6060

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.1

Whiff%

p4825.0%

p2518.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.395

SL+2.2 (13%)

CH (14%)

CT-2.0 (34%)

FB-10.9 (38%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	Pulaski Yankees	12	10	64	250	66	10	7	83%	5.3	18.0%	5.0%	13.0%	3.9%	2.26	4.37	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	Pulaski Yankees	12	10	64	250	66	10	7	83%	5.3	26.4%	4.0%	22.4%	2.8%	2.26	2.93	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	21	12	106	396	115	24	5	57%	5.0	22.0%	6.2%	15.8%	1.6%	1.53	2.91	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	21	12	106	396	115	24	5	57%	5.0	29.0%	6.1%	23.0%	1.3%	1.53	2.22	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	13	105	423	105	32	4	43%	3.5	21.4%	8.3%	13.1%	0.9%	2.06	2.85	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	13	105	423	105	32	4	43%	3.5	24.8%	7.6%	17.3%	0.9%	2.06	2.51	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	18	120	501	102	41	15	64%	4.3	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	3.0%	3.84	4.22	+1.0
2018	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	18	120	501	102	41	15	64%	4.3	20.4%	8.2%	12.2%	3.0%	3.84	4.05	+1.2
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	7	106	455	111	38	19	18%	2.7	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	4.0%	4.99	4.38	+0.2
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	7	106	455	111	38	19	18%	2.7	24.4%	8.4%	16.0%	4.2%	4.99	4.41	+0.2
2020	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	5	1	8	44	8	6	6	20%	1.5	18.2%	13.6%	4.5%	13.6%	15.26	10.78	-0.5
2020	25	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	5	1	8	44	8	6	6	20%	1.5	18.2%	13.6%	4.5%	13.6%	15.26	13.53	-0.8
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	15	108	425	121	26	15	56%	4.0	28.0%	6.1%	21.8%	3.3%	2.67	3.33	+2.1
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	15	108	425	121	26	15	56%	4.0	28.5%	6.1%	22.4%	3.5%	2.67	3.39	+2.0
2022	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	28	28	158	615	163	38	16	100%	5.7	26.5%	6.2%	20.3%	2.4%	2.44	2.98	+3.8
2022	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	28	28	158	615	163	38	16	100%	5.7	26.5%	6.2%	20.3%	2.6%	2.44	3.07	+3.6
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	70	291	76	21	12	100%	5.0	25.2%	7.5%	17.7%	3.9%	4.65	4.05	+0.7
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	70	291	76	21	12	100%	5.0	26.1%	7.2%	18.9%	4.1%	4.65	4.06	+0.7
2024	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	31	30	174	710	162	39	24	97%	5.6	22.8%	5.5%	17.3%	3.2%	3.77	3.61	+2.7
2024	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	31	30	174	710	162	39	24	97%	5.6	22.8%	5.5%	17.3%	3.2%	3.77	3.61	+2.7
2024	29	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	31	30	174	710	162	39	24	97%	5.6	22.8%	5.5%	17.3%	3.4%	3.77	3.70	+2.5
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	12	52	226	47	23	14	100%	4.4	20.3%	10.8%	9.5%	6.5%	4.47	6.31	-0.8
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	12	52	226	47	23	14	100%	4.4	20.3%	10.8%	9.5%	6.5%	4.47	6.31	-0.8
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	12	52	226	47	23	14	100%	4.4	20.8%	10.2%	10.6%	6.2%	4.47	6.10	-0.7
2026	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	3	0	6	22	7	0	1	0%	1.9	31.8%	0.0%	31.8%	4.5%	4.76	2.91	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	3	0	6	22	7	0	1	0%	1.9	31.8%	0.0%	31.8%	4.5%	4.76	2.91	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	3	0	6	22	7	0	1	0%	1.9	31.8%	0.0%	31.8%	4.5%	4.76	2.92	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			143	94	602	2490	604	179	102	66%	4.2	24.3%	7.2%	17.1%	4.1%	3.94	4.19	+5.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	PHI	7	7	46	194	40	16	8	100%	6.6	20.7%	8.1%	12.6%	3.9%	4.58	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	PHI	6	6	43	180	36	15	7	100%	7.1	19.9%	8.6%	11.3%	4.1%	4.93	5.16	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	PHI	6	6	43	182	36	16	8	100%	7.2	19.9%	8.6%	11.3%	4.1%	4.93	5.16	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		149	100	645	2670	640	194	109	67%	4.3	24.0%	7.3%	16.7%	4.1%	4.01	4.25	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	31	200	828	198	60	34	67%	4.3	24.0%	7.3%	16.7%	4.1%	4.01	4.25	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		251	160	1076	4358	998	307	137	64%	4.3	22.9%	7.0%	15.9%	3.2%	3.29	3.79	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	30	200	810	185	57	26	64%	4.3	22.9%	7.0%	15.9%	3.2%	3.29	3.79	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nestor Cortes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	20.7%	8.1%	3.9%	—	5.16	19.9%	11.3%	43	+0.28	—	—	—
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	61
Matt Dermody L 2022 · 4.22 FIP	32	SP-	4.22	17.9%	5.5%	3.5%	.302	3.87	20.7%	16.1%	49	-0.35	2.38	348	59
Santiago Gutierrez L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP-	3.95	15.0%	8.2%	2.0%	.366	6.54	17.1%	3.7%	46	+2.59	3.90	341	59
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	59
Sean Nolin L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	31	SP-	4.54	20.4%	8.9%	3.7%	.316	5.87	19.3%	12.9%	23	+1.33	3.79	309	57
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	57
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	57
Wei-Yin Chen L 2017 · 3.68 FIP	32	SP-	3.68	18.9%	6.8%	2.4%	.232	4.48	19.8%	13.3%	202	+0.80	3.63	1,065	56
Orlando Lara L 2017 · 4.39 FIP	32	SP	4.39	14.7%	6.5%	3.1%	.346	4.09	22.0%	14.2%	104	-0.30	3.85	426	54
Mike Montgomery L 2021 · 4.49 FIP	32	SP	4.49	18.5%	12.4%	2.5%	.347	4.44	15.5%	3.4%	147	-0.05	3.43	764	54
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	54
Anthony Vasquez L 2019 · 6.00 FIP	32	SW	6.00	14.6%	7.3%	5.9%	.383	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	671	52
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	52
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	51
Eric Stults L 2012 · 3.71 FIP	32	SP-	3.71	13.3%	6.5%	1.7%	.262	4.01	14.8%	9.6%	517	+0.30	3.50	773	51
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	409	50
Alejandro Soto L 2017 · 4.36 FIP	31	SW	4.36	13.8%	3.3%	3.7%	.323	4.03	17.1%	10.2%	61	-0.33	3.96	280	48
Kelvin Marte L 2019 · 5.25 FIP	31	SP	5.25	12.0%	10.8%	3.3%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	360	48
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	48
Enrique Lechuga L 2017 · 3.78 FIP	31	SP	3.78	10.5%	6.1%	1.5%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	137	47

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	86	23.7%	7.4%	1.58	4.05
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Frank Smith ('50-'56, 2 WAR*)	2.5	83	24.0%*	8.0%*	1.57*	3.98*
Joe Price ('80-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	82	23.3%*	8.8%*	1.49*	4.15*
Scott Bankhead ('86-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	100	21.2%*	7.3%*	1.36*	4.16*
Domingo Germán ('24)	2.7	90	24.6%	7.6%	1.62	4.54
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65