Daniel Castano
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
+0.0
WAR
Age 31
LHP
6'3" / 231 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
xFIP6.34
SIERA5.07
K%22.6%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.3%
IP57
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†4545
FB Velo
p1692.1
Whiff%
p1017.6%
K%
p1012.8%
xwOBA vs
p310.334
FB-1.0
SL-3.5
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Johnson City Cardinals | 12 | 11 | 48 | 219 | 34 | 12 | 6 | 10.6% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 6.19 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 24 | 23 | 135 | 580 | 116 | 28 | 13 | 15.0% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 3.93 | 4.22 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 30 | 11 | 119 | 495 | 104 | 23 | 4 | 16.8% | 5.2% | 1.1% | 3.48 | 2.97 | +3.1 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 7 | 6 | 30 | 126 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 9.5% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 3.03 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 19 | 18 | 99 | 408 | 67 | 24 | 19 | 14.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.10 | 5.75 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 17 | 13 | 70 | 300 | 58 | 20 | 15 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.13 | 5.36 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 21 | 9 | 67 | 297 | 64 | 31 | 12 | 19.0% | 10.2% | 4.0% | 5.40 | 4.97 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 46 | 23 | 7 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 44 | 22 | 7 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 53 | — | 53 | 222 | 41 | 21 | 7 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.80 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 38 | 21 | 7 | 18.1% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 35 | 20 | 7 | 17.5% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 5.05 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 31 | 19 | 7 | 16.8% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 5.21 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 130 | 91 | 567 | 2425 | 376 | 162 | 86 | 15.5% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 4.21 | 4.57 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 32 | 200 | 856 | 133 | 57 | 30 | 15.5% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 4.21 | 4.57 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Castano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.75 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | — | 4.91 | 18.6% | 8.9% | 158 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 244 | 85 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 82 |
| Craig Breslow L 2029 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 80 |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 79 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 78 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 78 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.08 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 145 | 77 |
| Brian Duensing L 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.76 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.70 | 2.63 | 198 | 77 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 76 |
| Phil Coke L 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 76 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 155 | 75 |
| Franklin Morales L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.03 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 101 | 74 |
| Santiago Gutierrez L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.91 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .366 | 6.58 | 17.1% | 3.7% | 46 | +2.67 | 3.91 | 341 | 73 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2024 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.14 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 182 | 73 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.25 | 12.0% | 10.8% | 3.3% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 360 | 72 |
| Chris Narveson L 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 71 |
| Jason Vargas L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.25 | 14.8% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.61 | 19.2% | 12.1% | 285 | +0.36 | 4.04 | 478 | 70 |
| Luke Westphal L 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 70 |
| Jason Gurka L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.13 | 15.5% | 7.6% | 4.3% | .382 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 183 | 70 |
| Kraig Sitton L 2024 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.89 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 166 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.