Adbert Alzolay

P Syracuse Mets

Age 32 RHP 6'1" / 208 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	MLBCHC	58	0	64	2.67	2.63	26.5%	5.1%	1.5
2024	29	MIX3 levels	21	1	20	5.31	6.44	18.9%	8.9%	-0.4	K 17.3% · BB 8.0% · FIP 7.21
2026	31	MIX4 levels	14	1	15	7.36	6.71	14.7%	10.3%	—	K 14.7% · BB 10.3% · FIP 6.39
2027PROJ	32	MLBNYM	130	0	137	4.30	4.32	23.8%	8.5%	0.4
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBNYM	44	0	46	4.48	4.60	22.9%	9.0%	-0.0
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBNYM	35	0	37	4.74	4.91	22.0%	9.5%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo52

Whiff%33

K%16

xwOBA vs10

CompsElian Leyva (age 30) · Mitch Lively (age 31) · Spencer Bivens (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.30

FIP4.32

K%23.8%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%15.3%

Proj IP137

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD6565

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p3322.9%

p1617.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.390

SI (24%)

CT (8%)

FB-1.2 (44%)

SL-3.4 (48%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	22	20	120	498	81	28	9	91%	5.5	12.0%	6.6%	5.4%	2.4%	4.34	4.22	—
2016	21	A RAW	South Bend Cubs	22	20	120	498	81	28	9	91%	5.5	16.3%	5.6%	10.6%	1.8%	4.34	3.42	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	114	463	108	34	8	100%	5.2	18.2%	8.3%	9.9%	2.3%	2.99	3.88	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	114	463	108	34	8	100%	5.2	23.3%	7.3%	16.0%	1.7%	2.99	3.01	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	8	8	40	171	27	13	4	100%	5.0	13.9%	8.0%	5.9%	2.8%	4.76	4.47	—
2018	23	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	8	8	40	171	27	13	4	100%	5.0	15.8%	7.6%	8.2%	2.3%	4.76	4.03	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	18	82	362	107	40	15	90%	4.1	27.2%	11.5%	15.7%	4.3%	5.18	4.61	+0.3
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	18	82	362	107	40	15	90%	4.1	29.6%	11.0%	18.5%	4.1%	5.18	4.34	+0.5
2020	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	6	4	21	87	29	13	1	67%	3.6	33.3%	14.9%	18.4%	1.2%	2.95	2.83	+0.5
2020	25	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	6	4	21	87	29	13	1	67%	3.6	33.3%	14.9%	18.4%	1.1%	2.95	2.82	+0.5
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	22	128	530	131	33	26	73%	4.3	24.7%	6.2%	18.5%	5.0%	4.79	4.55	+0.5
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	22	128	530	131	33	26	73%	4.3	24.7%	6.2%	18.5%	4.9%	4.79	4.47	+0.6
2022	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	5	26	110	35	8	2	45%	2.3	36.5%	3.8%	32.7%	2.0%	4.56	1.60	+0.9
2022	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	5	26	110	35	8	2	45%	2.3	31.8%	7.3%	24.5%	1.8%	4.56	2.32	+0.7
2023	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	58	0	64	253	67	13	5	0%	1.1	26.5%	5.1%	21.3%	2.1%	2.67	2.64	+1.5
2023	28	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	58	0	64	253	67	13	5	0%	1.1	26.5%	5.1%	21.3%	2.0%	2.67	2.63	+1.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	20	90	17	8	6	5%	1.0	17.3%	8.0%	9.3%	8.3%	5.31	7.21	-0.6
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	20	90	17	8	6	5%	1.0	17.3%	8.0%	9.3%	8.3%	5.31	7.21	-0.6
2024	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	1	20	90	17	8	6	5%	1.0	18.9%	8.9%	10.0%	6.7%	5.31	6.44	-0.4
2026	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	14	1	15	68	10	7	4	7%	1.0	14.7%	10.3%	4.4%	5.9%	7.36	6.39	—
2026	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	14	1	15	68	10	7	4	7%	1.0	14.7%	10.3%	4.4%	5.9%	7.36	6.39	—
2026	31	MIX RAW	4 levels	14	1	15	68	10	7	4	7%	1.0	14.7%	10.3%	4.4%	5.9%	7.36	6.71	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			121	27	254	1046	269	75	42	22%	2.1	25.7%	7.2%	18.5%	4.0%	4.04	4.02	+1.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	NYM	130	0	137	578	138	49	19	0%	1.1	23.8%	8.5%	15.3%	3.2%	4.30	4.32	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	NYM	120	0	126	532	122	48	19	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.0%	14.0%	3.5%	4.48	4.60	-0.1
2029	34	MLB MLE	NYM	109	0	115	485	107	46	18	0%	1.1	22.0%	9.5%	12.6%	3.8%	4.74	4.91	-0.5
2028	33	MLB CTX	NYM	44	0	46	194	45	17	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.0%	14.0%	3.5%	4.48	4.60	-0.0
2029	34	MLB CTX	NYM	35	0	37	156	34	15	6	0%	1.1	22.0%	9.5%	12.6%	3.8%	4.74	4.91	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		200	27	337	1398	348	107	55	14%	1.7	24.9%	7.7%	17.2%	3.9%	4.18	4.12	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		119	16	200	829	206	63	33	13%	1.7	24.9%	7.7%	17.2%	3.9%	4.18	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		212	101	630	2632	559	204	89	48%	3.0	21.2%	7.8%	13.5%	3.4%	4.22	4.15	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	32	200	836	178	65	28	48%	3.0	21.2%	7.8%	13.5%	3.4%	4.22	4.15	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adbert Alzolay (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	23.8%	8.5%	3.2%	—	4.75	22.5%	13.3%	241	+0.43	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	59
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	58
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	56
Nick Martinez R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.0%	8.5%	2.5%	.286	3.71	17.3%	13.0%	488	+0.09	2.94	1,288	56
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	14.0%	6.6%	4.2%	.268	5.28	17.5%	9.7%	166	+0.25	3.97	567	55
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	54
Todd Redmond R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SW	3.86	15.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	247	54
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	53
Toru Murata R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	31	SW	3.63	12.9%	5.7%	1.6%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	267	53
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	52
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	52
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	52
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	50
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	50
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	468	49
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.13	476	49
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	49
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	47
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	2.92	432	47
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	47

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	105	24.0%	8.3%	1.43	4.31
Chuck Cary ('85-'93, 3 WAR*)	2.1	68	24.6%*	8.7%*	1.45*	4.41*
Bob Johnson ('69-'77, 6 WAR*)	3.5	115	23.4%*	8.9%*	1.49*	4.12*
Ed Head ('40-'46, 4 WAR*)	2.3	93	23.8%*	8.8%*	1.24*	4.32*
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Félix Peña ('21)	1.3	65	23.9%	8.5%	1.35	4.66
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11