Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | A | Lexington Legends | 18 | 11 | 66 | 322 | 60 | 38 | 4 | 61% | 3.6 | 13.8% | 13.9% | -0.1% | 1.3% | 6.44 | 4.43 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A | Lexington Legends | 18 | 11 | 66 | 322 | 60 | 38 | 4 | 61% | 3.6 | 18.6% | 11.8% | 6.8% | 1.2% | 6.44 | 3.80 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Lexington Legends | 26 | 7 | 107 | 467 | 103 | 55 | 9 | 27% | 4.1 | 16.3% | 13.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 4.21 | 4.32 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Lexington Legends | 26 | 7 | 107 | 467 | 103 | 55 | 9 | 27% | 4.1 | 22.1% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | 4.21 | 3.81 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 1 | 72 | 319 | 80 | 43 | 5 | 3% | 2.0 | 19.8% | 15.1% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 3.98 | 4.18 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 1 | 72 | 319 | 80 | 43 | 5 | 3% | 2.0 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 11.6% | 1.6% | 3.98 | 3.57 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 43 | 0 | 80 | 343 | 80 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.9 | 18.9% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 2.4% | 2.91 | 3.88 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 43 | 0 | 80 | 343 | 80 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.9 | 23.3% | 7.6% | 15.7% | 2.0% | 2.91 | 3.21 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 60 | 262 | 72 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.2% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | 3.58 | 3.73 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 60 | 262 | 72 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.5% | 10.3% | 17.2% | 1.9% | 3.58 | 3.13 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 43 | 1 | 57 | 252 | 62 | 21 | 4 | 2% | 1.3 | 21.7% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 1.8% | 3.49 | 3.35 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 43 | 1 | 57 | 252 | 62 | 21 | 4 | 2% | 1.3 | 24.6% | 8.3% | 16.3% | 1.6% | 3.49 | 2.94 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 74 | 308 | 79 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.3% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.11 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 74 | 308 | 79 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.6% | 10.1% | 15.6% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 3.81 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 0 | 59 | 261 | 62 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 3.94 | 3.91 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 0 | 59 | 261 | 62 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 43 | 207 | 37 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 12.3% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 6.91 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 43 | 207 | 37 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.9% | 12.1% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 6.91 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 46 | 0 | 46 | 231 | 63 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 13.5% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 6.11 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | CIN | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 50 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 13.1% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 5.08 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | CIN | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 50 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 13.1% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 5.08 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 102 | 467 | 113 | 60 | 13 | — | — | 24.2% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 5.54 | 4.71 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 56 | 237 | 113 | 60 | 13 | — | — | 47.5% | 25.2% | 22.3% | 5.5% | 10.01 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 45 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 13.5% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 5.17 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 39 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 5.37 | 5.51 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 41 | 0 | 43 | 183 | 34 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 14.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.64 | 5.82 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 42 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 13.5% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 5.17 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 37 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 5.37 | 5.51 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 31 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 14.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.64 | 5.82 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 284 | 0 | 304 | 1331 | 266 | 164 | 43 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 12.3% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 5.53 | 4.72 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 187 | 0 | 200 | 877 | 175 | 108 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 12.3% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 5.53 | 4.72 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 420 | 20 | 664 | 2972 | 589 | 352 | 64 | 5% | 1.6 | 19.8% | 11.9% | 8.0% | 2.2% | 4.46 | 4.11 | +10.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 127 | 6 | 200 | 895 | 177 | 106 | 19 | 5% | 1.6 | 19.8% | 11.9% | 8.0% | 2.2% | 4.46 | 4.11 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yunior Marte (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.98 | 21.1% | 13.1% | 3.0% | — | 5.50 | 19.5% | 5.6% | 143 | +0.52 | — | — | — |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 80 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 79 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 76 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 75 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 173 | 75 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 74 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 73 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.89 | 22.2% | 13.5% | 3.5% | .302 | 2.69 | 27.3% | 19.4% | 98 | -2.20 | 1.51 | 544 | 73 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 3.76 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.32 | 1.74 | 468 | 72 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 72 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 71 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 71 |
| Austin Adams R 2027 · 6.16 FIP | 32 | SU | 6.16 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 6.3% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 162 | 70 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 70 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 70 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 108 | 70 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 70 |
| Noah Song R 2024 · 4.96 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.96 | 16.6% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 106 | 70 |
| Grant Black R 2024 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 69 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .268 | 4.46 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 136 | +0.17 | 2.78 | 596 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 50 | 20.0% | 13.7% | 1.29 | 5.29 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |