Erick Mejia
P
Harrisburg Senators
Age 31
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
AA
Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 55 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 115
ERA5.06
FIP5.06
K%23.0%
BB%15.8%
K-BB%7.2%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.94 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 4.10 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 49 | 214 | 58 | 34 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 17.4% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 4.59 | 4.72 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 49 | 214 | 58 | 34 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.1% | 15.9% | 11.2% | 1.9% | 4.59 | 3.88 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 25 | 0 | 28 | 121 | 36 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 13.4% | 10.9% | 2.2% | 1.29 | 3.98 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | WSH | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 54 | 37 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 15.8% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 5.06 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | WSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 15.8% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 5.06 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 83 | 354 | 90 | 51 | 8 | — | — | 25.3% | 14.3% | 11.0% | 2.4% | 3.79 | 4.70 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 23.0% | 15.8% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 5.06 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 49 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 15.5% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 5.12 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 44 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 15.5% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 5.26 | 5.39 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 39 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 15.7% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 5.45 | 5.62 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 15.5% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 5.12 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 22 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 15.5% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 5.26 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 15.7% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 5.45 | 5.62 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 58 | 0 | 61 | 259 | 57 | 40 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 5.28 | 5.03 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 130 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 5.28 | 5.03 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 71 | 0 | 78 | 340 | 77 | 54 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 16.0% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 3.35 | 4.44 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 182 | 0 | 200 | 872 | 197 | 140 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 16.0% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 3.35 | 4.44 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Erick Mejia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.06 | 23.0% | 15.8% | 2.8% | — | 5.39 | 22.2% | 6.6% | 141 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 81 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.22 | 25.9% | 15.2% | 2.5% | .296 | 2.55 | 33.3% | 22.0% | 162 | -1.67 | 1.99 | 488 | 78 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 78 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.89 | 22.2% | 13.5% | 3.5% | .302 | 2.69 | 27.3% | 19.4% | 98 | -2.20 | 1.51 | 544 | 77 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 77 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 76 |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.66 | 21.1% | 15.3% | 2.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 24.4% | 10.4% | 46 | -1.03 | 2.40 | 231 | 76 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2028 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 75 |
| Cody Hall R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.95 | 25.9% | 17.5% | 1.5% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 134 | 74 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.44 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 2.6% | .293 | 3.55 | 27.6% | 18.2% | 147 | -0.89 | 3.07 | 363 | 74 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 73 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 73 |
| Noah Song R 2024 · 4.96 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.96 | 16.6% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 106 | 72 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.42 | 17.2% | 13.7% | 1.9% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 241 | 72 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 72 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.26 | 19.3% | 14.7% | 3.5% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 254 | 71 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.38 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 104 | 71 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 71 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 108 | 70 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 22.4% | 15.6% | 1.22 | 5.21 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |