Erick Mejia
P
Harrisburg Senators
+0.1
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'0" / 195 lbs
AA
Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.74
FIP4.74
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.7%
BB%13.1%
K-BB%9.6%
IP39
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 45 | 0 | 49 | 214 | 58 | 34 | 4 | 21.8% | 17.4% | 2.3% | 4.59 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | WSH | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 37 | 21 | 5 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.74 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 42 | 177 | 40 | 25 | 6 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 35 | 20 | 5 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 33 | 19 | 4 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 31 | 18 | 4 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 29 | 17 | 4 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 27 | 16 | 4 | 21.2% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 5.08 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 0 | 53 | 233 | 51 | 42 | 6 | 21.8% | 18.1% | 2.5% | 4.42 | 4.95 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 185 | 0 | 200 | 879 | 192 | 158 | 23 | 21.8% | 18.1% | 2.5% | 4.42 | 4.95 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Erick Mejia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.85 | 22.2% | 9.5% | 106 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 89 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 83 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 82 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 81 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 79 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 78 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 78 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 78 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 76 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.48 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 2.7% | .293 | 3.45 | 27.6% | 18.2% | 147 | -1.03 | 3.02 | 363 | 76 |
| Leonel Campos R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.71 | 25.7% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.63 | 168 | 75 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 75 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.43 | 25.9% | 15.2% | 2.9% | .296 | 2.61 | 33.3% | 22.0% | 162 | -1.82 | 2.15 | 488 | 75 |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.66 | 21.1% | 15.3% | 2.6% | .233 | 3.85 | 24.4% | 10.4% | 46 | -0.81 | 2.47 | 231 | 75 |
| Jeff Manship R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 114 | 74 |
| Cody Hall R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.92 | 25.9% | 17.5% | 1.4% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 134 | 74 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 74 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 74 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.31 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 104 | 74 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 74 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2019
Service 7.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.1 | $0.4M | -$0.6M |
| Totals | $1M | $0.4M | -$0.6M | ||