Erick Mejia — OGILVIE

Erick Mejia P Harrisburg Senators

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AA Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%22.9%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP55

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL5050

CMD4550

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$0.1M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.1M		$-0.0M	-$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.94	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.94	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	1	0	1	5	1	1	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.10	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	49	214	58	34	4	0%	1.1	21.5%	16.8%	4.7%	2.3%	4.59	4.66	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	49	214	58	34	4	0%	1.1	21.5%	16.8%	4.7%	2.3%	4.59	4.66	—
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	0	49	214	58	34	4	0%	1.1	27.1%	15.9%	11.2%	1.9%	4.59	3.88	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	28	0	31	130	38	14	2	0%	1.1	24.2%	13.4%	10.9%	2.2%	1.16	3.98	—
YTD	31	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	28	0	31	130	38	14	2	0%	1.1	24.2%	13.4%	10.9%	2.2%	1.16	3.98	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	A+ RAW	WSH	2	0	2	6	2	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2026	31	AA RAW	WSH	22	0	24	107	32	13	2	0%	1.1	29.9%	12.1%	17.8%	1.9%	1.50	3.14	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	WSH	4	0	5	17	4	1	0	0%	1.2	23.5%	5.9%	17.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.86	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	WSH	49	0	51	216	49	33	7	0%	1.0	22.4%	15.3%	7.1%	3.0%	5.11	5.20	-0.4
2028	33	MLB MLE	WSH	45	0	47	198	44	30	7	0%	1.0	22.0%	15.3%	6.7%	3.3%	5.25	5.38	-0.4
2029	34	MLB MLE	WSH	41	0	43	181	39	28	7	0%	1.0	21.5%	15.5%	6.0%	3.6%	5.44	5.60	-0.5
2027	32	MLB CTX	WSH	15	0	16	68	15	10	2	0%	1.1	22.4%	15.3%	7.1%	3.0%	5.11	5.20	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	WSH	23	0	24	101	22	16	3	0%	1.0	22.0%	15.3%	6.7%	3.3%	5.25	5.38	-0.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	WSH	19	0	20	84	18	13	3	0%	1.1	21.5%	15.5%	6.0%	3.6%	5.44	5.60	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	0	60	254	56	39	8	0%	1.1	22.0%	15.4%	6.6%	3.3%	5.28	5.03	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	130	27	0%	1.1	22.0%	15.4%	6.6%	3.3%	5.28	5.03	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		74	0	81	349	79	54	8	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.6%	6.9%	2.2%	3.22	4.40	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		183	0	200	862	194	134	19	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.6%	6.9%	2.2%	3.22	4.40	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erick Mejia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	22.9%	15.6%	2.8%	—	5.38	22.0%	6.6%	141	+0.33	—	—	—
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	81
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	79
Adam Ottavino R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	25.9%	15.2%	2.9%	.296	2.60	33.3%	22.0%	162	-1.84	2.10	488	78
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	77
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	76
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	75
Dan Winkler R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	31	SU	4.76	21.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.233	3.87	24.4%	10.4%	46	-0.89	2.40	231	74
Cody Hall R 2018 · 3.92 FIP	30	SU	3.92	25.9%	17.5%	1.5%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	134	74
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	73
Fredy Quintero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	31	SU	4.62	17.2%	13.7%	2.2%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	241	73
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	73
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	72
Antonio Guzman R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	31	SU	4.96	19.3%	14.7%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	254	72
Brad Boxberger R 2019 · 4.46 FIP	31	SU	4.46	22.1%	13.9%	2.7%	.293	3.44	27.6%	18.2%	147	-1.02	3.01	363	72
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	72
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	71
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	71
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	71
Parker Markel R 2022 · 4.47 FIP	31	SU	4.47	25.5%	15.5%	2.9%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	266	70
Jeff Manship R 2016 · 4.87 FIP	31	SU	4.87	19.0%	10.6%	3.7%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	114	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	22.3%	15.4%	1.22	5.20
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41