Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 67 | 274 | 64 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 1.7% | 2.55 | 3.68 | — |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 67 | 274 | 64 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 14.6% | 1.5% | 2.55 | 3.04 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 22 | 0 | 27 | 117 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 9.2% | 2.1% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 5.00 | 2.59 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 22 | 0 | 27 | 117 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 0.9% | 5.00 | 3.29 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 41 | 0 | 51 | 243 | 40 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 13.3% | 16.3% | -3.0% | 3.7% | 6.84 | 6.06 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 41 | 0 | 51 | 243 | 40 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.5% | 14.8% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 6.84 | 5.42 | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 65 | 300 | 65 | 30 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 0.7% | 3.05 | 3.12 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 65 | 300 | 65 | 30 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 0.7% | 3.05 | 2.88 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 58 | 0 | 72 | 295 | 65 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 13.0% | 2.1% | 2.89 | 3.51 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 58 | 0 | 72 | 295 | 65 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.0% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 2.4% | 2.89 | 3.64 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 30 | 0 | 27 | 124 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 17.7% | 5.6% | 12.1% | 1.6% | 6.07 | 3.17 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 30 | 0 | 27 | 124 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 17.7% | 5.6% | 12.1% | 1.6% | 6.07 | 3.21 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 30 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 32 | 0 | 39 | 157 | 50 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.0% | 8.7% | 19.3% | 1.4% | 2.09 | 2.59 | — |
| 2022 | 30 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 32 | 0 | 39 | 157 | 50 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.8% | 8.3% | 23.6% | 1.3% | 2.09 | 2.19 | — |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 31 | 1 | 33 | 132 | 34 | 10 | 2 | 3% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 7.6% | 18.2% | 1.4% | 3.86 | 2.66 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 31 | 1 | 33 | 132 | 34 | 10 | 2 | 3% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 7.6% | 18.2% | 1.5% | 3.86 | 2.73 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 46 | 0 | 48 | 204 | 52 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 8.9% | 16.5% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 4.00 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 41 | 0 | 43 | 183 | 45 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 153 | 1 | 157 | 670 | 141 | 54 | 15 | 1% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 8.1% | 13.0% | 2.3% | 4.32 | 3.61 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 195 | 1 | 200 | 854 | 180 | 69 | 19 | 1% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 8.1% | 13.0% | 2.3% | 4.32 | 3.61 | +4.2 | ||
| Career | — | 322 | 1 | 380 | 1642 | 314 | 153 | 28 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 1.7% | 3.77 | 3.60 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 169 | 1 | 200 | 864 | 165 | 81 | 15 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 1.7% | 3.77 | 3.60 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jimmy Cordero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.00 | 25.4% | 8.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.34 | 24.4% | 15.0% | 43 | +0.34 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 83 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.83 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.59 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.83 | 208 | 80 |
| Bud Norris R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 316 | 80 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.82 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.82 | 23.2% | 10.4% | 0.7% | .296 | 2.96 | 25.0% | 17.3% | 56 | +0.14 | 2.82 | 284 | 79 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.89 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 4.58 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.69 | 2.51 | 251 | 78 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 77 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.93 | 27.5% | 10.7% | 3.3% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 277 | 76 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 75 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.41 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.36 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +0.95 | 3.41 | 144 | 75 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.08 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 0.9% | .259 | 3.58 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 122 | +0.50 | 3.08 | 349 | 73 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 26.8% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .380 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 268 | 73 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.49 | 18.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .262 | 3.63 | 14.0% | 8.2% | 40 | +0.14 | 2.35 | 140 | 72 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.15 | 27.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .197 | 4.85 | 21.5% | 12.7% | 94 | +1.70 | 3.15 | 244 | 72 |
| Josh Lueke R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 71 |
| Luis Ayala R 2029 · 3.02 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.02 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.22 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.20 | 2.99 | 119 | 71 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 71 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.22 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .282 | 3.92 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.30 | 3.92 | 186 | 71 |
| Jason Motte R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.37 | 22.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .306 | 5.16 | 16.3% | 4.9% | 41 | +0.79 | 3.11 | 113 | 71 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.82 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.22 | 187 | 71 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.03 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 533 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 46 | 24.9% | 9.1% | 1.15 | 4.13 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |