Alex Young

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 33 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	29	MIX2 levels	65	0	56	3.72	4.57	22.3%	8.3%	-0.0	K 21.2% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.54
2024	30	MIX2 levels	48	0	48	2.83	3.52	21.9%	9.2%	0.6	K 19.9% · BB 8.6% · FIP 3.65
2026	32	MIX4 levels	18	3	17	4.86	4.00	22.9%	10.0%	—	K 22.9% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.00
2027PROJ	33	MLBWSH	150	0	158	4.28	4.37	22.1%	9.1%	0.3
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBWSH	8	0	8	4.51	4.67	21.2%	9.6%	-0.0
2029PROJ1% MLB	35	MLBWSH	1	0	1	4.81	5.01	20.2%	10.2%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

Whiff%90

K%50

xwOBA vs38

FB Velo10

CompsHisanori Takahashi (age 35) · Brandon Mann (age 33) · Luke Westphal (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.28

FIP4.37

K%22.1%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%13.0%

Proj IP158

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 158 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1088.7

Whiff%

p9031.7%

p5022.1%

xwOBA vs

p380.326

FB (39%)

SI (38%)

CU (14%)

CH (46%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	100%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	100%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	119	500	93	37	11	95%	5.7	14.1%	8.6%	5.5%	2.5%	3.56	4.36	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	119	500	93	37	11	95%	5.7	18.6%	7.4%	11.2%	2.2%	3.56	3.67	—
2017	23	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	27	24	137	594	103	58	12	89%	5.1	14.0%	10.7%	3.3%	2.5%	3.68	4.63	—
2017	23	AA RAW	Jackson Generals	27	24	137	594	103	58	12	89%	5.1	17.3%	9.8%	7.6%	2.0%	3.68	4.01	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	21	131	566	109	38	15	72%	4.5	16.4%	7.2%	9.2%	2.9%	5.17	4.22	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	21	131	566	109	38	15	72%	4.5	19.3%	6.7%	12.5%	2.7%	5.17	3.80	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	23	138	607	135	46	20	62%	3.7	21.0%	7.8%	13.2%	3.5%	4.57	4.21	+1.1
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	23	138	607	135	46	20	62%	3.7	22.2%	7.6%	14.7%	3.3%	4.57	4.03	+1.4
2020	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	15	7	46	204	39	14	11	47%	3.1	19.1%	6.9%	12.3%	5.7%	5.44	5.49	-0.5
2020	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	15	7	46	204	39	14	11	47%	3.1	19.1%	6.9%	12.3%	5.4%	5.44	5.41	-0.5
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	2	65	300	55	27	13	4%	1.3	17.9%	9.1%	8.8%	4.4%	6.23	5.14	-0.4
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	2	65	300	55	27	13	4%	1.3	18.3%	9.0%	9.3%	4.3%	6.23	5.25	-0.5
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	1	62	260	71	19	5	2%	1.1	25.0%	7.5%	17.5%	2.1%	2.92	3.11	+1.1
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	1	62	260	71	19	5	2%	1.1	27.3%	7.3%	20.0%	1.9%	2.92	2.78	+1.3
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	56	242	54	20	10	0%	0.9	21.2%	8.5%	12.7%	3.9%	3.72	4.54	+0.0
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	56	242	54	20	10	0%	0.9	22.3%	8.3%	14.0%	4.1%	3.72	4.57	-0.0
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	48	196	43	18	4	0%	1.0	19.9%	8.6%	11.3%	2.1%	2.83	3.65	+0.5
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	48	196	43	18	4	0%	1.0	19.9%	8.6%	11.3%	2.1%	2.83	3.65	+0.5
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	48	196	43	18	4	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.2%	12.8%	2.0%	2.83	3.52	+0.6
2026	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	3	17	70	16	7	2	17%	0.9	22.9%	10.0%	12.9%	2.9%	4.86	4.00	—
2026	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	3	17	70	16	7	2	17%	0.9	22.9%	10.0%	12.9%	2.9%	4.86	4.00	—
2026	32	MIX RAW	4 levels	18	3	17	70	16	7	2	17%	0.9	22.9%	10.0%	12.9%	2.9%	4.86	4.00	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			177	25	278	1219	239	98	49	14%	1.6	19.6%	8.0%	11.6%	4.0%	4.34	4.73	-0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	WSH	150	0	158	667	147	61	19	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.1%	13.0%	2.9%	4.28	4.37	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	WSH	137	0	144	607	129	59	19	0%	1.0	21.2%	9.6%	11.6%	3.2%	4.51	4.67	-0.2
2029	35	MLB MLE	WSH	123	0	129	545	110	56	19	0%	1.0	20.2%	10.2%	10.0%	3.5%	4.81	5.01	-0.7
2028	34	MLB CTX	WSH	8	0	8	34	7	3	1	0%	1.0	21.2%	9.6%	11.6%	3.2%	4.51	4.67	-0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	WSH	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	20.2%	10.2%	10.0%	3.5%	4.81	5.01	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		186	25	287	1258	247	102	50	13%	1.5	19.7%	8.1%	11.6%	4.0%	4.35	4.66	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		130	17	200	877	172	71	35	13%	1.5	19.7%	8.1%	11.6%	4.0%	4.35	4.66	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		369	102	818	3542	639	300	110	28%	2.2	18.0%	8.5%	9.6%	3.1%	4.27	4.36	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	25	200	866	156	73	27	28%	2.2	18.0%	8.5%	9.6%	3.1%	4.27	4.36	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Young (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	22.1%	9.1%	2.9%	—	4.83	20.7%	10.8%	273	+0.46	—	—	—
Hisanori Takahashi L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	22.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.292	3.81	21.1%	15.0%	118	+0.31	3.50	240	74
Brandon Mann L 2017 · 4.24 FIP	33	SU	4.24	19.8%	11.3%	2.5%	.286	3.59	17.8%	6.4%	52	-0.65	3.59	190	58
Luke Westphal L 2022 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	24.2%	13.4%	2.9%	.302	5.19	15.7%	-0.7%	26	+0.84	2.97	294	52
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	52
Chris Narveson L 2015 · 4.79 FIP	33	SW	4.79	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.59	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.20	4.00	625	50
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	50
Hideki Okajima L 2009 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	20.5%	7.0%	3.1%	.268	4.27	15.5%	8.5%	46	+0.32	3.05	238	50
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	169	49
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	47
Brian Moran L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	33	SU	4.20	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.304	3.72	21.5%	14.5%	152	-0.48	1.80	421	47
Doug Creek L 2002 · 4.99 FIP	33	SU	4.99	21.4%	12.6%	3.8%	.288	5.79	17.1%	7.9%	36	+0.80	4.48	277	47
Micah Bowie L 2007 · 4.60 FIP	32	SW	4.60	16.9%	10.9%	2.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	140	44
Brady Feigl L 2024 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	23.7%	4.7%	4.4%	.312	3.70	22.2%	14.9%	14	-0.42	2.69	212	43
Joey Eischen L 2003 · 4.00 FIP	33	SU	4.00	18.1%	5.4%	3.2%	.309	3.44	19.6%	10.3%	69	-0.56	2.13	294	42
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	42
Tim Byrdak L 2007 · 3.25 FIP	33	SU	3.25	24.6%	11.1%	1.5%	.280	4.96	20.1%	7.6%	155	+1.71	2.85	320	42
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	41
Tom Martin L 2003 · 3.82 FIP	33	SU	3.82	24.3%	9.5%	2.9%	.226	3.99	16.2%	8.6%	106	+0.17	3.40	303	41
Clay Rapada L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	34	SU	3.84	14.3%	8.0%	1.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	120	41
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	40

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	89	20.6%	9.3%	1.36	4.45
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Jerry Garvin ('77-'82, 4 WAR*)	3.0	101	19.3%*	8.4%*	1.44*	4.52*
Vicente Palacios ('87-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.9	62	21.0%*	10.0%*	1.41*	4.86*
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71