A.J. Minter
P
New York Mets
Age 32
LHP
6'0" / 215 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 40 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7887vR 96
ERA3.29
FIP3.35
K%26.9%
BB%6.4%
K-BB%20.5%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2792.9
Whiff%
p5526.0%
K%
p5623.3%
xwOBA vs
p900.263
SL+3.9 (48%)
FB+0.9 (43%)
CH-0.7 (10%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 0 | 35 | 134 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.0% | 8.7% | 24.4% | 0.0% | 1.30 | 1.41 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 0 | 35 | 134 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 35.1% | 8.2% | 26.9% | 0.0% | 1.30 | 1.34 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 5 levels | 42 | 0 | 39 | 163 | 56 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.3% | 9.5% | 21.7% | 1.7% | 3.20 | 2.58 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 5 levels | 42 | 0 | 39 | 163 | 56 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 34.4% | 8.6% | 25.8% | 1.8% | 3.20 | 2.31 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 65 | 0 | 61 | 260 | 69 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.5% | 8.1% | 18.5% | 1.2% | 3.23 | 2.52 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 65 | 0 | 61 | 260 | 69 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.5% | 8.1% | 18.5% | 1.2% | 3.23 | 2.51 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 52 | 241 | 65 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.5% | 8.8% | 16.7% | 3.5% | 5.54 | 4.00 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 52 | 241 | 65 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.0% | 8.7% | 18.3% | 2.9% | 5.54 | 3.56 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 22 | 0 | 22 | 85 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 8.2% | 20.0% | 1.2% | 0.83 | 2.40 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 22 | 0 | 22 | 85 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 8.2% | 20.0% | 1.2% | 0.83 | 2.45 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 60 | 246 | 67 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.8% | 9.0% | 16.7% | 0.9% | 3.32 | 2.57 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 60 | 246 | 67 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.2% | 9.3% | 17.9% | 0.8% | 3.32 | 2.45 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 75 | 0 | 70 | 271 | 94 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 34.7% | 5.5% | 29.2% | 1.8% | 2.06 | 1.88 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 75 | 0 | 70 | 271 | 94 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 34.7% | 5.5% | 29.2% | 1.8% | 2.06 | 1.99 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 72 | 0 | 67 | 268 | 84 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.5% | 7.3% | 24.2% | 2.3% | 3.64 | 2.63 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 72 | 0 | 67 | 268 | 84 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.3% | 7.5% | 23.9% | 2.2% | 3.64 | 2.65 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 1 | 37 | 146 | 38 | 12 | 6 | 2% | 0.9 | 26.1% | 7.5% | 18.7% | 4.5% | 2.65 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 1 | 37 | 146 | 38 | 12 | 6 | 2% | 0.9 | 26.0% | 8.2% | 17.8% | 4.1% | 2.65 | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 13 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 31.8% | 11.4% | 20.5% | 0.0% | 1.64 | 1.85 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 13 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 31.8% | 11.4% | 20.5% | 0.0% | 1.64 | 1.92 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | New York Mets | 31 | 2 | 30 | 116 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 6% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 1.4% | 21.9% | 2.7% | 1.48 | 2.81 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | NYM | 38 | 0 | 40 | 167 | 45 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.9% | 6.4% | 20.5% | 3.1% | 3.29 | 3.35 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | NYM | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 45 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 6.4% | 20.5% | 3.1% | 3.29 | 3.35 | +0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 70 | 283 | 69 | 13 | 7 | — | — | 24.3% | 4.5% | 19.8% | 2.5% | 2.50 | 3.12 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 58 | 247 | 69 | 13 | 7 | — | — | 27.9% | 5.1% | 22.7% | 2.9% | 2.99 | 2.99 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 60 | 16 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 6.9% | 19.5% | 3.4% | 3.85 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 47 | 0 | 49 | 206 | 53 | 15 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.6% | 7.4% | 18.1% | 3.7% | 4.11 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 46 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 8.0% | 16.6% | 4.0% | 4.42 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 60 | 16 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 6.9% | 19.5% | 3.4% | 3.85 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 53 | 15 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.6% | 7.4% | 18.1% | 3.7% | 4.11 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 46 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 8.0% | 16.6% | 4.0% | 4.42 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 593 | 0 | 565 | 2340 | 656 | 175 | 57 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.0% | 7.5% | 20.6% | 2.4% | 3.40 | 3.01 | +15.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 210 | 0 | 200 | 829 | 232 | 62 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.0% | 7.5% | 20.6% | 2.4% | 3.40 | 3.01 | +5.6 | ||
| Career | — | 517 | 3 | 484 | 1974 | 571 | 151 | 38 | 1% | 0.9 | 28.9% | 7.6% | 21.3% | 1.9% | 2.94 | 2.69 | +15.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 214 | 1 | 200 | 816 | 236 | 62 | 16 | 1% | 0.9 | 28.9% | 7.6% | 21.3% | 1.9% | 2.94 | 2.69 | +6.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| A.J. Minter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.79 | 28.3% | 7.6% | 3.2% | — | 4.28 | 25.6% | 18.2% | 146 | +0.49 | — | — | — |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 2.70 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.70 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 4.25 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 120 | +1.55 | 2.18 | 195 | 76 |
| Josh Edgin L 2025 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 113 | 75 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2026 · 2.73 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.73 | 29.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .291 | 3.67 | 26.9% | 16.5% | 124 | +0.94 | 2.72 | 166 | 71 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.97 | 30.8% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .346 | 5.55 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 11 | +2.58 | 2.44 | 113 | 70 |
| Fernando Abad L 2025 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.48 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.2% | .281 | 2.35 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.13 | 2.35 | 306 | 70 |
| Brooks Raley L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.14 | 32.1% | 7.1% | 3.4% | .208 | 2.79 | 28.4% | 20.4% | 157 | -0.35 | 1.74 | 238 | 70 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.73 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 223 | 70 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 2.95 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.95 | 20.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 101 | 69 |
| Aaron Loup L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.51 | 22.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | .209 | 2.99 | 22.0% | 14.8% | 164 | -0.52 | 2.07 | 363 | 69 |
| Oliver Pérez L 2027 · 2.78 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.78 | 27.9% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .304 | 2.62 | 28.3% | 21.7% | 119 | -0.16 | 1.56 | 219 | 67 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 2.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.66 | 26.7% | 9.3% | 1.2% | .315 | 4.91 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 34 | +2.25 | 2.48 | 420 | 67 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.63 | 25.3% | 10.6% | 4.2% | .286 | 5.07 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 32 | +0.44 | 2.37 | 296 | 66 |
| Neal Cotts L 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.64 | 3.24 | 156 | 66 |
| Manny Parra L 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.89 | 17.7% | 3.8% | 1.5% | .300 | 3.34 | 18.4% | 8.1% | 55 | +0.45 | 2.43 | 114 | 66 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.05 | 25.9% | 12.7% | 2.8% | .276 | 4.90 | 17.3% | 2.6% | 35 | +0.85 | 3.72 | 181 | 65 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.05 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 1.2% | .352 | 3.71 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 89 | +0.66 | 3.05 | 117 | 65 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.91 | 25.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | .306 | 4.04 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 50 | +0.13 | 1.39 | 259 | 65 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.92 | 18.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | .292 | 3.40 | 22.8% | 18.4% | 138 | -0.52 | 2.22 | 405 | 65 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 64 |
| Caleb Thielbar L 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.24 | 25.9% | 5.3% | 3.0% | .337 | 2.70 | 30.2% | 22.6% | 143 | -0.54 | 2.22 | 487 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 51 | 26.4% | 7.5% | 1.37 | 4.00 |
| Blake Parker ('21) | 4 | 60 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 3.36 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Erik Swanson ('24) | 5 | 51 | 26.2% | 6.5% | 1.57 | 3.70 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |