A.J. Minter
P
St. Lucie Mets
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)
Age 32
LHP
6'0" / 215 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA3.83
FIP4.14
xFIP3.21
SIERA3.15
K%25.7%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%17.3%
IP33
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF6060
CTRL5050
CMD6060
K†6060
SL+3.9 (48%)
FB+0.9 (43%)
CH-0.7 (10%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 31 | 0 | 35 | 134 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 33.0% | 8.7% | 0.0% | 1.30 | 1.41 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 42 | 0 | 39 | 163 | 56 | 14 | 3 | 31.3% | 9.5% | 1.7% | 3.20 | 2.57 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 65 | 0 | 61 | 260 | 69 | 21 | 3 | 26.5% | 8.1% | 1.3% | 3.23 | 2.58 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 56 | 0 | 52 | 241 | 65 | 21 | 7 | 25.5% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 5.54 | 3.88 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 22 | 0 | 22 | 85 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 28.2% | 8.2% | 1.1% | 0.83 | 2.38 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 68 | 0 | 60 | 246 | 67 | 23 | 2 | 25.8% | 9.0% | 0.9% | 3.32 | 2.57 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 75 | 0 | 70 | 271 | 94 | 15 | 5 | 34.7% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 2.06 | 1.77 | +2.6 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 72 | 0 | 67 | 268 | 84 | 20 | 6 | 31.5% | 7.3% | 2.2% | 3.64 | 2.58 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 42 | 1 | 37 | 146 | 38 | 12 | 6 | 26.1% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 2.65 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 13 | 0 | 11 | 44 | 14 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.64 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | NYM | 16 | — | 16 | 69 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 3.71 | 4.04 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 19 | 79 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 27.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 3.13 | 3.41 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 26.1% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 3.98 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 25.4% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 4.17 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 489 | 1 | 457 | 1868 | 547 | 149 | 35 | 29.3% | 8.0% | 1.9% | 3.02 | 2.66 | +13.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 214 | 0 | 200 | 818 | 240 | 65 | 15 | 29.3% | 8.0% | 1.9% | 3.02 | 2.66 | +6.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| A.J. Minter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.04 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.23 | 25.7% | 17.2% | 61 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Josh Edgin L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.62 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 113 | 75 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.07 | 30.8% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .346 | 5.22 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 11 | +2.15 | 2.64 | 113 | 72 |
| Fernando Abad L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 2.5% | .281 | 2.38 | 23.3% | 21.0% | 44 | -1.30 | 2.38 | 306 | 71 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.70 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 223 | 70 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.13 | 21.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 130 | 69 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.67 | 25.3% | 10.6% | 4.3% | .286 | 5.02 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 32 | +0.35 | 2.37 | 296 | 69 |
| Jeremy Bleich L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.42 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | .360 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 241 | 69 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.28 | 25.9% | 12.7% | 3.2% | .276 | 5.11 | 17.3% | 2.6% | 35 | +0.83 | 3.70 | 181 | 68 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2027 · 2.97 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.97 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 1.0% | .352 | 3.57 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 89 | +0.60 | 2.97 | 117 | 67 |
| Phil Coke L 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 67 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.67 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 202 | 66 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 66 |
| David Huff L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.07 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 158 | 65 |
| Anthony Gose L 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.02 | 30.4% | 14.1% | 4.9% | .234 | 4.80 | 24.4% | 10.8% | 82 | -0.22 | 3.98 | 173 | 65 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 65 |
| Luke Westphal L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 64 |
| Brooks Raley L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.28 | 32.1% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .208 | 2.78 | 28.4% | 20.4% | 157 | -0.50 | 1.74 | 203 | 64 |
| Neal Cotts L 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 64 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 2.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.89 | 20.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 101 | 64 |
| Chris Narveson L 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 63 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.