A.J. Minter — OGILVIE

A.J. Minter P Minnesota Twins

Age 32 LHP 6'0" / 215 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7987vR 96

ERA3.44

FIP3.50

K%25.6%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%19.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p4023.8%

p5222.5%

xwOBA vs

p770.286

SL+3.9 (48%)

FB+0.9 (43%)

CH-0.7 (10%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	35	134	47	11	0	0%	1.1	33.0%	8.7%	24.4%	0.0%	1.30	1.41	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	0	35	134	47	11	0	0%	1.1	35.1%	8.2%	26.9%	0.0%	1.30	1.34	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	5 levels	42	0	39	163	56	14	3	0%	0.9	31.3%	9.5%	21.7%	1.6%	3.20	2.56	+0.9
2017	23	MIX RAW	5 levels	42	0	39	163	56	14	3	0%	0.9	34.4%	8.6%	25.8%	1.8%	3.20	2.31	+1.1
2018	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	65	0	61	260	69	21	3	0%	0.9	26.5%	8.1%	18.5%	1.2%	3.23	2.52	+1.5
2018	24	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	65	0	61	260	69	21	3	0%	0.9	26.5%	8.1%	18.5%	1.2%	3.23	2.51	+1.5
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	52	241	65	21	7	0%	0.9	25.5%	8.8%	16.7%	3.3%	5.54	3.86	+0.4
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	52	241	65	21	7	0%	0.9	27.0%	8.7%	18.3%	2.9%	5.54	3.56	+0.6
2020	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	22	0	22	85	24	7	1	0%	1.0	28.2%	8.2%	20.0%	1.2%	0.83	2.40	+0.6
2020	26	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	22	0	22	85	24	7	1	0%	1.0	28.2%	8.2%	20.0%	1.2%	0.83	2.45	+0.5
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	60	246	67	23	2	0%	0.9	25.8%	9.0%	16.7%	0.9%	3.32	2.57	+1.4
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	60	246	67	23	2	0%	0.9	27.2%	9.3%	17.9%	0.8%	3.32	2.45	+1.5
2022	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	75	0	70	271	94	15	5	0%	0.9	34.7%	5.5%	29.2%	1.8%	2.06	1.88	+2.2
2022	28	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	75	0	70	271	94	15	5	0%	0.9	34.7%	5.5%	29.2%	1.8%	2.06	1.99	+2.2
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	72	0	67	268	84	20	6	0%	0.9	31.5%	7.3%	24.2%	2.3%	3.64	2.63	+1.5
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	72	0	67	268	84	20	6	0%	0.9	31.5%	7.3%	24.2%	2.3%	3.64	2.63	+1.5
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	72	0	67	268	84	20	6	0%	0.9	31.3%	7.5%	23.9%	2.2%	3.64	2.65	+1.5
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	37	146	38	12	6	2%	0.9	26.1%	7.5%	18.7%	4.5%	2.65	4.30	+0.1
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	37	146	38	12	6	2%	0.9	26.1%	7.5%	18.7%	4.5%	2.65	4.30	+0.1
2024	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	1	37	146	38	12	6	2%	0.9	26.0%	8.2%	17.8%	4.1%	2.65	4.12	+0.2
2025	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	13	0	11	44	14	5	0	0%	0.8	31.8%	11.4%	20.5%	0.0%	1.64	1.85	+0.4
2025	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	13	0	11	44	14	5	0	0%	0.8	31.8%	11.4%	20.5%	0.0%	1.64	1.85	+0.4
2025	31	MLB RAW	New York Mets	13	0	11	44	14	5	0	0%	0.8	31.8%	11.4%	20.5%	0.0%	1.64	1.92	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			438	0	400	1642	472	123	33	0%	0.9	28.7%	7.5%	21.3%	2.0%	3.10	2.74	+8.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	53	2	52	203	43	7	6	4%	1.0	22.5%	3.8%	18.8%	3.7%	1.92	3.72	+0.5
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	53	2	52	203	43	7	6	4%	1.0	22.5%	3.8%	18.8%	3.7%	1.92	3.72	+0.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	A RAW	MIN	2	0	2	6	2	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2026	32	A+ RAW	MIN	2	1	2	7	1	0	0	50%	0.8	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.89	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	MIN	8	1	8	30	4	1	0	12%	1.0	13.3%	3.3%	10.0%	0.0%	2.35	2.40	—
2026	32	MLB RAW	MIN	41	0	40	160	36	6	6	0%	1.0	22.5%	3.8%	18.8%	3.8%	2.01	3.73	+0.4
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	MIN	41	0	40	160	36	6	6	0%	1.0	22.5%	3.8%	18.8%	3.8%	2.01	3.73	+0.4
ROS	32	MLB MLE	MIN	5	0	5	22	6	1	1	0%	1.1	25.6%	6.3%	19.3%	3.2%	3.44	3.50	+0.1
ROS	32	MLB CTX	MIN	5	0	5	21	5	1	1	0%	1.0	25.6%	6.3%	19.3%	3.2%	3.44	3.50	+0.1
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	57	225	49	8	7	—	—	21.6%	3.7%	17.9%	3.0%	2.06	3.70	+0.6
FULL	32	MLB A+C	MIN	—	—	46	193	49	8	7	—	—	25.3%	4.4%	20.9%	3.5%	2.57	3.43	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	MIN	51	0	54	227	58	16	8	0%	1.1	25.4%	6.9%	18.5%	3.6%	4.03	4.17	+0.2
2028	34	MLB MLE	MIN	47	0	49	206	51	15	8	0%	1.0	24.5%	7.3%	17.1%	3.9%	4.30	4.47	+0.0
2029	35	MLB MLE	MIN	42	0	44	185	44	15	8	0%	1.0	23.5%	7.9%	15.6%	4.2%	4.61	4.81	-0.1
2027	33	MLB CTX	MIN	51	0	54	228	58	16	8	0%	1.1	25.4%	6.9%	18.5%	3.6%	4.03	4.17	+0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	MIN	47	0	49	207	51	15	8	0%	1.0	24.5%	7.3%	17.1%	3.9%	4.30	4.47	+0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	MIN	42	0	44	186	44	15	8	0%	1.0	23.5%	7.9%	15.6%	4.2%	4.61	4.81	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		583	0	552	2283	629	170	58	0%	0.9	27.6%	7.4%	20.1%	2.5%	3.42	3.10	+9.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		211	0	200	827	228	62	21	0%	0.9	27.6%	7.4%	20.1%	2.5%	3.42	3.10	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		539	3	505	2061	589	157	42	1%	0.9	28.6%	7.6%	21.0%	2.0%	2.92	2.77	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		213	1	200	816	233	62	17	1%	0.9	28.6%	7.6%	21.0%	2.0%	2.92	2.77	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
A.J. Minter (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.80	28.2%	7.6%	3.2%	—	4.46	24.5%	17.2%	146	+0.66	—	—	—
Josh Edgin L 2018 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	29.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	113	77
Fernando Abad L 2017 · 3.53 FIP	31	SU	3.53	20.3%	7.1%	2.2%	.281	2.37	23.3%	21.0%	44	-1.16	2.37	306	76
Tony Sipp L 2015 · 2.80 FIP	32	SU	2.80	28.7%	6.5%	2.4%	.267	4.45	23.8%	15.0%	120	+1.65	2.22	195	75
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	223	73
Aaron Loup L 2020 · 3.46 FIP	32	SU	3.46	22.9%	4.2%	3.2%	.209	2.95	22.0%	14.8%	164	-0.51	2.07	363	71
Boone Logan L 2017 · 2.96 FIP	32	SU	2.96	30.8%	9.9%	2.2%	.346	5.29	24.1%	12.0%	11	+2.33	2.58	113	71
Jerry Blevins L 2016 · 2.72 FIP	32	SU	2.72	29.2%	6.7%	2.2%	.291	3.66	26.9%	16.5%	124	+0.94	2.71	166	70
Tony Watson L 2017 · 3.76 FIP	32	SU	3.76	18.2%	4.5%	3.0%	.292	3.39	22.8%	18.4%	138	-0.37	2.21	405	70
Jeff Ibarra L 2019 · 2.85 FIP	31	SU	2.85	20.6%	3.4%	1.9%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.85	101	70
Mike Dunn L 2017 · 4.29 FIP	32	SU	4.29	25.9%	12.7%	3.2%	.276	5.11	17.3%	2.6%	35	+0.82	3.71	181	69
Ryan Buchter L 2019 · 4.75 FIP	32	SU	4.75	25.3%	10.6%	4.4%	.286	5.24	22.9%	9.7%	32	+0.49	2.37	296	69
Neal Cotts L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	35	SU	4.66	21.6%	7.4%	4.4%	.257	3.77	21.9%	14.5%	93	-0.89	3.21	156	69
Justin Wilson L 2020 · 2.66 FIP	32	SU	2.66	26.7%	9.3%	1.2%	.315	4.86	19.5%	8.8%	34	+2.20	2.49	420	68
Brooks Raley L 2020 · 3.31 FIP	32	SU	3.31	32.1%	7.1%	3.7%	.208	2.82	28.4%	20.4%	157	-0.49	1.74	255	68
Manny Parra L 2015 · 2.88 FIP	32	SU	2.88	17.7%	3.8%	1.4%	.300	3.33	18.4%	8.1%	55	+0.45	2.43	114	68
Sean Doolittle L 2019 · 3.91 FIP	32	SU	3.91	25.4%	5.0%	4.2%	.306	4.00	23.8%	14.8%	50	+0.09	1.39	259	67
Oliver Pérez L 2015 · 2.88 FIP	33	SU	2.88	27.9%	7.1%	2.2%	.304	2.63	28.3%	21.7%	119	-0.25	1.58	219	67
Heriberto Ruelas L 2015 · 2.95 FIP	33	SU	2.95	19.1%	7.3%	1.0%	.352	3.57	16.2%	8.5%	89	+0.62	2.95	117	67
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	67
Jeremy Bleich L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	32	SW	4.41	20.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	241	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	51	25.6%	7.4%	1.42	4.14
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Erik Swanson ('24)	1.3	51	26.2%	6.5%	1.57	3.70
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63