James Marvel prospect projection, MLE, ETA

James Marvel P Round Rock Express

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%19.0%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.3

Whiff%

p1820.8%

p1010.7%

xwOBA vs

p100.365

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	119	502	91	34	10	100%	4.9	13.5%	8.0%	5.5%	2.6%	3.49	4.42	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	119	502	91	34	10	100%	4.9	18.1%	6.8%	11.4%	2.0%	3.49	3.52	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	167	681	122	40	11	96%	6.2	13.9%	6.7%	7.2%	1.9%	3.55	3.83	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	167	681	122	40	11	96%	6.2	17.9%	5.9%	12.0%	1.6%	3.55	3.21	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	32	180	741	145	49	14	100%	5.6	16.6%	7.1%	9.5%	2.4%	3.46	3.94	+2.1
2019	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	32	180	741	145	49	14	100%	5.6	19.6%	6.6%	13.0%	1.9%	3.46	3.32	+3.5
2021	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	25	22	132	582	98	51	21	88%	5.3	14.8%	9.2%	5.6%	3.6%	5.26	5.00	—
2021	27	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	25	22	132	582	98	51	21	88%	5.3	16.8%	8.8%	8.1%	3.6%	5.26	4.85	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	35	9	94	415	62	31	8	26%	2.7	13.1%	7.8%	5.3%	2.0%	6.05	4.10	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	35	9	94	415	62	31	8	26%	2.7	14.9%	7.5%	7.5%	1.9%	6.05	3.88	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	6	6	24	118	15	12	1	100%	4.0	10.9%	9.2%	1.8%	0.9%	7.88	3.83	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	6	6	24	118	15	12	1	100%	4.0	10.9%	9.2%	1.8%	0.9%	7.88	3.83	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	6	6	24	118	15	12	1	100%	4.0	12.7%	10.2%	2.5%	0.8%	7.88	3.89	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	4	17	84	9	6	4	100%	4.3	10.7%	7.1%	3.6%	4.8%	8.31	6.10	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.0%	9.2%	9.8%	2.9%	4.64	4.64	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	TEX	3	3	20	84	16	8	3	100%	6.7	18.6%	9.6%	8.9%	3.2%	4.78	4.89	+0.0
2027	33	MLB CTX	TEX	1	1	7	30	5	3	1	100%	7.0	18.6%	9.6%	8.9%	3.2%	4.78	4.89	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		5	5	25	115	15	9	5	100%	4.9	12.8%	7.8%	5.0%	4.3%	7.26	5.39	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	42	200	932	122	73	41	100%	4.7	12.8%	7.8%	5.0%	4.3%	7.26	5.39	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		149	119	715	3039	439	235	75	80%	4.8	14.5%	7.7%	6.7%	2.5%	4.30	4.22	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	33	200	850	123	66	21	80%	4.8	14.5%	7.7%	6.7%	2.5%	4.30	4.22	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
James Marvel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	19.0%	9.2%	2.9%	—	4.89	18.6%	8.9%	20	+0.25	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	76
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	69
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	32	SP	3.88	12.8%	6.0%	2.0%	.245	4.27	13.6%	7.2%	58	+0.39	2.23	173	67
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	66
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	66
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	65
Brandon Beachy R 2019 · 4.19 FIP	32	SP	4.19	17.4%	9.5%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	1.97	364	64
Diego Moreno R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	32	SP	4.08	12.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.376	4.75	18.6%	9.2%	30	+0.67	2.29	187	63
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	63
Koji Uehara R 2009 · 3.52 FIP	34	SP	3.52	17.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.300	2.55	33.5%	30.6%	145	-0.97	1.28	481	63
Bryan Evans R 2019 · 3.89 FIP	32	SP	3.89	18.7%	10.4%	1.9%	.450	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	231	62
Dennis O'Grady R 2019 · 3.62 FIP	30	SP	3.62	17.2%	8.1%	1.7%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	61
Tyler Cloyd R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	32	SP	5.21	18.9%	9.5%	4.6%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	343	60
Scott Carroll R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	32	SP	5.71	14.4%	8.6%	5.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	377	60
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	60
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	60
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	60
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	59
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	59
Aaron Brooks R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	32	SP	4.38	15.8%	7.0%	3.1%	.332	4.45	14.2%	7.5%	245	+0.07	3.71	879	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	15.8%	8.6%	1.44	5.96
Mike Lincoln ('10)	1.9	54	14.1%	8.9%	1.32	5.33
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Dave Borkowski ('08)	1.7	58	16.9%	9.5%	1.25	5.87
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24