Ricardo Pinto

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 33 RHP 6'0" / 195 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	27	MIX2 levels	24	23	124	4.29	4.09	20.1%	8.8%	—	K 17.3% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.45
2022	28	AAADET	20	0	33	3.58	3.50	27.7%	9.2%	—	K 24.3% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.94
2024	30	MIX2 levels	22	6	67	6.18	5.09	15.1%	10.4%	-0.4	K 13.4% · BB 9.5% · FIP 5.04
2025	31	No MLB games played
2026	32	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	33	MLBPHI	15	0	16	4.53	4.55	21.4%	9.7%	0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBPHI	7	0	7	4.69	4.82	20.5%	10.0%	-0.0
2029PROJMLE	35	MLBPHI	1	0	1	4.93	5.12	19.7%	10.4%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo40

xwOBA vs30

K%10

CompsKenshin Kawakami (age 34) · Pete Walker (age 33) · Austin Bibens-Dirkx (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.55

K%21.4%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p3322.9%

p1013.6%

xwOBA vs

p300.335

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	145	583	105	37	10	100%	6.1	13.6%	7.4%	6.2%	2.2%	2.97	4.08	—
2015	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	145	583	105	37	10	100%	6.1	18.0%	6.3%	11.7%	1.7%	2.97	3.31	—
2016	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	27	25	156	665	101	49	20	93%	5.8	12.3%	8.1%	4.2%	2.8%	4.10	4.64	—
2016	22	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	27	25	156	665	101	49	20	93%	5.8	15.2%	7.4%	7.8%	3.0%	4.10	4.41	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	8	90	400	71	34	11	18%	2.1	16.4%	8.7%	7.6%	2.7%	5.18	4.30	+0.3
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	8	90	400	71	34	11	18%	2.1	17.8%	8.5%	9.2%	2.8%	5.18	4.24	+0.3
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	6	65	297	46	30	9	20%	2.2	13.3%	10.9%	2.5%	2.8%	5.95	4.89	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	6	65	297	46	30	9	20%	2.2	15.5%	10.1%	5.4%	3.0%	5.95	4.87	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	6	126	540	111	55	21	20%	4.2	18.3%	10.6%	7.7%	3.8%	4.44	5.00	-0.6
2019	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	6	126	540	111	55	21	20%	4.2	20.6%	10.2%	10.4%	3.9%	4.44	4.82	-0.4
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	124	533	107	47	15	96%	5.2	17.3%	9.3%	8.0%	3.0%	4.29	4.45	—
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	124	533	107	47	15	96%	5.2	20.1%	8.8%	11.3%	2.8%	4.29	4.09	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	20	0	33	141	39	13	4	0%	1.6	24.3%	9.7%	14.7%	3.0%	3.58	3.94	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	20	0	33	141	39	13	4	0%	1.6	27.7%	9.2%	18.4%	2.8%	3.58	3.50	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	6	67	317	48	33	10	27%	3.0	13.4%	9.5%	3.8%	3.4%	6.18	5.04	-0.4
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	6	67	317	48	33	10	27%	3.0	13.4%	9.5%	3.8%	3.4%	6.18	5.04	-0.4
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	6	67	317	48	33	10	27%	3.0	15.1%	10.4%	4.7%	3.2%	6.18	5.09	-0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			33	0	43	219	33	23	10	0%	1.3	15.1%	10.5%	4.6%	4.6%	9.07	6.22	-0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	PHI	15	0	16	68	14	7	2	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	3.0%	4.53	4.55	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	PHI	114	0	120	505	104	51	17	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.0%	10.5%	3.3%	4.69	4.82	-0.4
2029	35	MLB MLE	PHI	88	0	92	390	77	40	14	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.4%	9.3%	3.6%	4.93	5.12	-0.6
2028	34	MLB CTX	PHI	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.0%	10.5%	3.3%	4.69	4.82	-0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	PHI	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.4%	9.3%	3.6%	4.93	5.12	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	0	50	251	39	26	11	0%	1.3	15.7%	10.4%	5.3%	4.4%	8.42	5.51	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		160	0	200	999	155	104	44	0%	1.2	15.7%	10.4%	5.3%	4.4%	8.42	5.51	-2.2
Career	—	MLE		221	98	806	3476	534	315	102	44%	3.6	15.4%	9.1%	6.3%	2.9%	4.40	4.56	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	24	200	863	133	78	25	44%	3.6	15.4%	9.1%	6.3%	2.9%	4.40	4.56	-1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 56 IPFIP 4.87 → 5.10 (+0.24)K% 15.5% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.50%	—	×0.860	13.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.85%	—	×0.900	9.77%
HR / BF /BF	3.10%	÷0.989	×1.100	3.45%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 4.87 → 5.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 33 IPFIP 3.49 → 3.94 (+0.45)K% 27.7% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.66%	—	×0.880	24.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.22%	—	×1.050	9.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.84%	÷1.026	×1.100	3.04%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 95 IPFIP 4.35 → 4.69 (+0.34)K% 19.5% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.48%	—	×0.880	17.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.50%	—	×1.050	9.98%
HR / BF /BF	3.09%	÷1.052	×1.100	3.23%

Result: FIP 4.35 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAErie SeaWolves · 28 IPFIP 2.99 → 3.56 (+0.57)K% 22.3% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.32%	—	×0.810	18.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.100	6.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷1.055	×1.200	2.03%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 2.99 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAADurham Bulls · 105 IPFIP 4.77 → 5.00 (+0.23)K% 21.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.48%	—	×0.880	18.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.07%	—	×1.050	10.57%
HR / BF /BF	4.03%	÷1.128	×1.100	3.93%

Result: FIP 4.77 → 5.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 19 IPFIP 4.16 → 5.00 (+0.85)K% 18.8% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.75%	—	×0.810	15.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.100	11.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷0.920	×1.200	3.26%

Result: FIP 4.16 → 5.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAACharlotte Knights · 54 IPFIP 4.50 → 4.45 (−0.05)K% 15.5% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.51%	—	×0.880	13.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.98%	—	×1.050	9.43%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷1.319	×1.100	2.38%

Result: FIP 4.50 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 11 IPFIP 5.86 → 6.94 (+1.08)K% 15.4% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.38%	—	×0.770	11.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.38%	—	×1.150	17.69%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.014	×1.250	4.74%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 5.86 → 6.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ricardo Pinto (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.95	20.2%	10.0%	212	+0.40	—	—	—
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	64
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	62
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	58
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	57
Toru Murata R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	31	SW	3.63	12.9%	5.7%	1.6%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	267	56
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	53
Angel Castro R 2016 · 5.42 FIP	33	SW	5.42	12.3%	9.1%	4.0%	.304	3.51	14.5%	7.1%	139	-1.91	3.51	292	51
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	51
Zach Neal R 2022 · 5.53 FIP	33	SP-	5.53	16.1%	5.7%	5.6%	.321	5.98	15.6%	9.6%	101	+0.45	4.24	732	50
Casey Lawrence R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	33	SP-	4.08	20.0%	5.2%	3.7%	.284	4.99	15.9%	10.6%	440	+0.91	3.57	1,374	50
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	50
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	50
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	49
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	48
Junior Guerra R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	33	SP	3.99	22.3%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.12	21.2%	9.1%	173	+0.13	3.18	646	47
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	47
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	47
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	47
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	46
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	44

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	105	20.0%	10.1%	1.32	5.13
Felipe Paulino ('14)	2.0	101	20.7%	9.5%	1.14	5.22
Matt Kinney ('05)	1.9	97	16.8%	9.9%	1.39	5.29
Felix Doubront ('15)	2.6	103	19.5%	9.7%	1.10	4.89
Jackie Brown ('70-'77, 1 WAR*)	4.5	128	19.7%*	8.9%*	1.21*	4.93*
Dick Lange ('72-'75, -3 WAR*)	1.4	92	16.6%*	9.6%*	1.42*	5.49*
Bob Sebra ('85-'90, 1 WAR*)	1.8	92	21.9%*	8.8%*	1.13*	5.05*