José Castillo
P
Baltimore Orioles
+0.2
WAR
Age 30
LHP
6'6" / 252 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.05
FIP4.12
xFIP4.06
SIERA3.85
K%23.0%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.7%
IP32
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4545
CMD4040
K†5555
FB Velo
p3393.3
Whiff%
p3122.6%
K%
p3620.1%
xwOBA vs
p470.315
CH (3%)
SI (39%)
SL-2.3 (44%)
FB-3.5 (54%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 6 | 6 | 27 | 116 | 16 | 16 | 2 | 10.2% | 16.3% | 2.3% | 4.00 | 5.54 | -0.2 |
| 2016 | 20 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 16 | 0 | 35 | 151 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 0.9% | 2.06 | 2.73 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 21 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 47 | 0 | 56 | 242 | 59 | 26 | 1 | 18.6% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 2.88 | 3.11 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 22 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 59 | 0 | 65 | 259 | 91 | 21 | 4 | 33.8% | 9.2% | 1.4% | 2.78 | 2.16 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 23 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 10 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 20 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 4.15 | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 49 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 66 | 22 | 3 | 27.7% | 11.4% | 1.6% | 2.72 | 3.10 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 37 | 0 | 38 | 184 | 48 | 26 | 6 | 23.7% | 14.2% | 3.6% | 8.53 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | 24 | 2 | 24 | 100 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 21.5% | 8.5% | 1.1% | 3.75 | 2.99 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 44 | 0 | 48 | 213 | 53 | 19 | 4 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 1.7% | 3.19 | 3.21 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 30 | 14 | 3 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 2.6% | 4.10 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 29 | 13 | 3 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 27 | 13 | 3 | 21.4% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.50 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 292 | 10 | 351 | 1512 | 370 | 164 | 24 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 1.6% | 3.59 | 3.30 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 166 | 6 | 200 | 861 | 211 | 93 | 14 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 1.6% | 3.59 | 3.30 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| José Castillo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.44 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 61 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 3.03 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.70 | 2.38 | 306 | 83 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 81 |
| Zack Britton L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.88 | 20.1% | 12.4% | 1.7% | .234 | 3.60 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 99 | -0.28 | 1.60 | 309 | 79 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 79 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 77 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2025 · 3.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.42 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.24 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.18 | 3.24 | 163 | 77 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.42 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.68 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.26 | 3.42 | 152 | 76 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 76 |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 76 |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 76 |
| Jake Diekman L 2025 · 3.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.23 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.7% | .241 | 3.08 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 76 |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 75 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 75 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.08 | 16.3% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .303 | 3.62 | 29.2% | 20.0% | 43 | -0.46 | 3.62 | 113 | 75 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.03 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.25 | 3.78 | 127 | 75 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.33 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.48 | 3.06 | 244 | 74 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.54 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 4.2% | .268 | 7.97 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.43 | 2.98 | 145 | 74 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.34 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 3.8% | .202 | 4.17 | 25.3% | 15.6% | 85 | -0.17 | 2.37 | 296 | 73 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.39 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 2.98 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.41 | 1.81 | 421 | 73 |
| Aaron Loup L 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.15 | 24.0% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .364 | 2.52 | 25.1% | 18.8% | 82 | -0.63 | 2.07 | 363 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.