José Castillo
P
Baltimore Orioles
Age 30
LHP
6'6" / 252 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99108vR 117
ERA4.23
FIP4.32
K%22.2%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP53
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3393.3
Whiff%
p3122.6%
K%
p3620.1%
xwOBA vs
p470.315
CH (3%)
SI (39%)
SL-2.3 (44%)
FB-3.5 (54%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 6 | 6 | 27 | 116 | 16 | 16 | 2 | 100% | 4.5 | 10.2% | 16.3% | -6.1% | 2.3% | 4.00 | 5.54 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 6 | 6 | 27 | 116 | 16 | 16 | 2 | 100% | 4.5 | 13.8% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 4.00 | 4.66 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 35 | 151 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 2.2 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 13.8% | 1.0% | 2.06 | 2.76 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 0 | 35 | 151 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 2.2 | 27.8% | 6.0% | 21.9% | 0.7% | 2.06 | 1.84 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 56 | 242 | 59 | 26 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.6% | 12.5% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 2.88 | 3.11 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 56 | 242 | 59 | 26 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.4% | 10.7% | 13.6% | 0.4% | 2.88 | 2.62 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 59 | 0 | 65 | 259 | 91 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.8% | 9.2% | 24.7% | 1.5% | 2.78 | 2.22 | +1.8 |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 59 | 0 | 65 | 259 | 91 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 35.1% | 8.1% | 27.0% | 1.5% | 2.78 | 2.06 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 10 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 20% | 0.9 | 55.6% | 8.3% | 47.2% | 5.6% | 4.15 | 2.51 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 10 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 20% | 0.9 | 55.6% | 8.3% | 47.2% | 5.6% | 4.15 | 2.52 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 66 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 11.4% | 16.3% | 1.4% | 2.72 | 2.98 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 49 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 66 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.3% | 10.4% | 20.9% | 1.4% | 2.72 | 2.56 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 38 | 184 | 48 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 14.2% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 8.53 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 38 | 184 | 48 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 8.53 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 2 | 24 | 100 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 8% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 8.5% | 12.9% | 1.0% | 3.75 | 2.93 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 2 | 24 | 100 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 8% | 1.0 | 29.0% | 9.0% | 20.0% | 1.0% | 3.75 | 2.35 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 48 | 213 | 53 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 1.7% | 3.19 | 3.21 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 48 | 213 | 53 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 8.9% | 16.0% | 1.9% | 3.19 | 3.16 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 51 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 50 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 4.23 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 47 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 45 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 40 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 36 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 43 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 39 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 34 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 193 | 0 | 203 | 865 | 200 | 88 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 0 | 200 | 853 | 197 | 87 | 24 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 292 | 10 | 351 | 1512 | 370 | 164 | 24 | 3% | 1.2 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 13.6% | 1.6% | 3.59 | 3.29 | +8.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 166 | 6 | 200 | 861 | 210 | 93 | 14 | 3% | 1.2 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 13.6% | 1.6% | 3.59 | 3.29 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| José Castillo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 22.2% | 10.3% | 2.6% | — | 4.78 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 137 | +0.46 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 2.91 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.82 | 2.35 | 306 | 82 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 81 |
| Zack Britton L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.88 | 20.1% | 12.4% | 1.7% | .234 | 3.56 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 99 | -0.32 | 1.59 | 309 | 79 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 78 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 78 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.29 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .268 | 8.16 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.87 | 3.04 | 145 | 78 |
| Jake Diekman L 2025 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .241 | 3.03 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.22 | 2.33 | 455 | 77 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.44 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .290 | 3.67 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.23 | 3.44 | 152 | 77 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.45 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.17 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.28 | 3.17 | 163 | 77 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.37 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.38 | 3.09 | 244 | 77 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 76 |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 75 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.29 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .269 | 3.00 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.29 | 1.67 | 421 | 75 |
| Dan Runzler L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.77 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.24 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.47 | 3.77 | 127 | 75 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.02 | 16.3% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .303 | 3.36 | 29.2% | 20.0% | 43 | -0.66 | 3.36 | 113 | 75 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.42 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 4.0% | .202 | 4.09 | 25.3% | 15.6% | 85 | -0.33 | 2.37 | 296 | 75 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.17 | 22.9% | 6.6% | 2.1% | .314 | 3.73 | 25.3% | 14.9% | 55 | +0.56 | 2.81 | 223 | 75 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 75 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 73 |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.48 | 29.2% | 13.6% | 2.1% | .308 | 3.86 | 24.0% | 13.5% | 93 | +0.38 | 2.48 | 420 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 1.14 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |