José Castillo P Baltimore Orioles
+0.2 WAR
Age 30 LHP 6'6" / 252 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.05
FIP4.12
xFIP4.06
SIERA3.85
K%23.0%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.7%
IP32
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4545
CMD4040
K†5555
FB Velo
p3393.3
Whiff%
p3122.6%
K%
p3620.1%
xwOBA vs
p470.315
CH (3%)
SI (39%)
SL-2.3 (44%)
FB-3.5 (54%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR K%BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
201519AFort Wayne TinCaps66271161616210.2%16.3%2.3%4.005.54-0.2
201620A+Lake Elsinore Storm16035151429120.7%6.9%0.9%2.062.73+0.9
201721AASan Antonio Missions470562425926118.6%12.5%0.0%2.883.11+1.2
201822MLBSan Diego Padres590652599121433.8%9.2%1.4%2.782.16+2.1
201923MLBSan Diego Padres10293620324.15
202226MLBSan Diego Padres490502116622327.7%11.4%1.6%2.723.10+1.0
202327MLBSan Diego Padres370381844826623.7%14.2%3.6%8.534.86+0.0
202428AAAReno Aces24224100299121.5%8.5%1.1%3.752.99+0.5
202529MLBBaltimore Orioles440482135319423.6%9.1%1.7%3.193.21+0.9
▸ 2026 Season
202630MLBBAL32321353014322.5%10.2%2.6%4.104.28+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
202731MLBBAL31311302913322.0%10.2%2.7%4.274.39+0.2
202832MLBBAL30301252713321.4%10.3%2.8%4.404.50+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career2921035115123701642424.4%10.9%1.6%3.593.30+8.0
/ 200 IP1666200861211931424.4%10.9%1.6%3.593.30+4.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
José Castillo (OGILVIE) 4.28 22.5%10.2%2.6% 4.44 21.7%11.5%61 +0.16
Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP 30 SU 3.73 20.7%10.1%2.0%.271 3.03 21.8%17.1%88 -0.70 2.38 306 83
Phil Coke L 2029 · 3.85 FIP 33 SU 3.85 18.8%9.1%2.1%.373 3.04 18.0%11.3%70 -0.81 3.04 101 81
Zack Britton L 2026 · 3.88 FIP 30 SU 3.88 20.1%12.4%1.7%.234 3.60 21.1%8.3%99 -0.28 1.60 309 79
Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.66 FIP 29 SU 3.66 18.1%7.0%2.2%.342 2.89 20.6%17.2%29 -0.77 2.89 101 79
Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.64 FIP 30 SU 3.64 21.7%12.1%1.6%.284 3.27 20.2%11.0%97 -0.37 1.32 182 77
Arturo Barradas L 2025 · 3.42 FIP 29 SU 3.42 18.1%7.0%1.8%.288 3.24 16.1%9.5%34 -0.18 3.24 163 77
Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.42 FIP 30 SU 3.42 16.2%8.4%1.1%.290 3.68 17.9%13.2%105 +0.26 3.42 152 76
Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.77 FIP 30 SW 3.77 27.7%11.9%2.7%.294 4.21 22.5%10.9%110 +0.44 3.70 181 76
Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.68 FIP 32 SU 4.68 22.7%13.1%3.4%.321 4.72 22.0%7.0%95 +0.04 2.97 294 76
Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP 32 SW 4.73 19.4%7.9%4.1%.320 3.99 19.0%7.6%128 -0.74 3.59 190 76
Jake Diekman L 2025 · 3.23 FIP 29 SW 3.23 26.7%11.3%1.7%.241 3.08 28.6%15.8%115 -0.15 2.32 455 76
Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.31 FIP 29 SU 4.31 16.4%10.3%2.4%.282 3.80 10.5%-2.0%30 -0.51 3.70 110 75
Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.68 FIP 29 SW 4.68 20.2%9.6%3.8%.301 2.70 175 75
Josh Edgin L 2026 · 4.08 FIP 30 SU 4.08 16.3%10.2%1.9%.303 3.62 29.2%20.0%43 -0.46 3.62 113 75
Dan Runzler L 2026 · 3.78 FIP 30 SU 3.78 19.0%13.1%1.1%.383 4.03 16.5%4.0%63 +0.25 3.78 127 75
Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP 30 SW 4.33 19.1%9.0%3.1%.245 3.85 16.6%8.5%64 -0.48 3.06 244 74
Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.54 FIP 30 SW 4.54 24.9%9.8%4.2%.268 7.97 15.0%-1.4%20 +3.43 2.98 145 74
Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.34 FIP 30 SW 4.34 24.3%9.3%3.8%.202 4.17 25.3%15.6%85 -0.17 2.37 296 73
Brian Moran L 2026 · 3.39 FIP 30 SW 3.39 26.9%10.0%2.4%.269 2.98 25.5%18.5%99 -0.41 1.81 421 73
Aaron Loup L 2026 · 3.15 FIP 30 SU 3.15 24.0%7.7%2.0%.364 2.52 25.1%18.8%82 -0.63 2.07 363 73

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.