José Castillo — OGILVIE

José Castillo P Baltimore Orioles

Age 30 LHP 6'6" / 252 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.23

FIP4.30

K%21.8%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p3122.6%

p3620.1%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

CH (3%)

SI (39%)

SL-2.3 (44%)

FB-3.5 (54%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	6	6	27	116	16	16	2	100%	4.5	10.2%	16.3%	-6.1%	2.3%	4.00	5.54	—
2015	19	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	6	6	27	116	16	16	2	100%	4.5	13.8%	13.8%	0.0%	1.7%	4.00	4.66	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	35	151	42	9	1	0%	2.2	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	0.9%	2.06	2.72	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	0	35	151	42	9	1	0%	2.2	27.8%	6.0%	21.9%	0.7%	2.06	1.84	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	56	242	59	26	1	0%	1.2	18.6%	12.5%	6.1%	0.0%	2.88	3.11	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	56	242	59	26	1	0%	1.2	24.4%	10.7%	13.6%	0.4%	2.88	2.62	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	59	0	65	259	91	21	4	0%	1.1	33.8%	9.2%	24.7%	1.4%	2.78	2.15	+1.9
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	59	0	65	259	91	21	4	0%	1.1	35.1%	8.1%	27.0%	1.5%	2.78	2.06	+1.9
2019	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	2	9	36	20	3	2	20%	0.9	55.6%	8.3%	47.2%	5.6%	4.15	2.51	+0.2
2019	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	10	2	9	36	20	3	2	20%	0.9	55.6%	8.3%	47.2%	5.6%	4.15	2.52	+0.2
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	0	50	211	66	22	3	0%	1.0	27.7%	11.4%	16.3%	1.6%	2.72	3.07	+0.9
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	49	0	50	211	66	22	3	0%	1.0	31.3%	10.4%	20.9%	1.4%	2.72	2.56	+1.2
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	38	184	48	26	6	0%	1.0	22.4%	12.1%	10.2%	3.6%	8.53	4.72	-0.1
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	38	184	48	26	6	0%	1.0	22.4%	12.1%	10.2%	3.6%	8.53	4.72	-0.1
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	38	184	48	26	6	0%	1.0	26.1%	14.1%	12.0%	3.3%	8.53	4.68	-0.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	2	24	100	29	9	1	8%	1.0	20.3%	7.3%	12.9%	1.1%	3.75	2.94	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	2	24	100	29	9	1	8%	1.0	20.3%	7.3%	12.9%	1.1%	3.75	2.94	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	2	24	100	29	9	1	8%	1.0	29.0%	9.0%	20.0%	1.0%	3.75	2.35	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	48	213	53	19	4	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	1.8%	3.19	3.23	+0.8
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	48	213	53	19	4	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	1.8%	3.19	3.23	+0.8
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	48	213	53	19	4	0%	1.1	24.9%	8.9%	16.0%	1.9%	3.19	3.16	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			69	0	72	314	85	28	7	0%	1.0	27.1%	8.9%	18.2%	2.2%	4.11	3.17	+1.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	BAL	4	0	4	17	4	2	0	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.8%	12.0%	2.6%	4.23	4.30	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	BAL	47	0	50	209	44	21	6	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.1%	11.1%	2.9%	4.41	4.53	+0.0
2028	32	MLB MLE	BAL	44	0	46	193	40	20	6	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.4%	10.1%	3.1%	4.62	4.77	-0.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	BAL	40	0	42	177	35	19	6	0%	1.1	19.8%	10.8%	9.0%	3.4%	4.86	5.03	-0.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	BAL	45	0	47	198	42	20	6	0%	1.0	21.2%	10.1%	11.1%	2.9%	4.41	4.53	+0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	BAL	42	0	44	186	38	19	6	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.4%	10.1%	3.1%	4.62	4.77	-0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	BAL	38	0	40	169	33	18	6	0%	1.1	19.8%	10.8%	9.0%	3.4%	4.86	5.03	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		193	0	203	865	198	85	24	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.9%	13.1%	2.8%	4.44	3.94	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	853	195	84	24	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.9%	13.1%	2.8%	4.44	3.94	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		292	10	351	1512	365	158	24	3%	1.2	24.1%	10.5%	13.7%	1.6%	3.59	3.27	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		166	6	200	861	208	90	14	3%	1.2	24.1%	10.5%	13.7%	1.6%	3.59	3.27	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
José Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	21.8%	9.8%	2.6%	—	4.76	20.5%	10.1%	137	+0.46	—	—	—
Fernando Abad L 2016 · 3.77 FIP	30	SU	3.77	20.7%	10.1%	2.1%	.271	2.95	21.8%	17.1%	88	-0.82	2.37	306	83
Phil Coke L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	33	SU	3.89	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.85	3.04	101	82
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	79
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	78
Colt Hynes L 2015 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	16.2%	8.4%	1.1%	.290	3.66	17.9%	13.2%	105	+0.24	3.42	152	78
Antonio Bastardo L 2016 · 4.43 FIP	30	SU	4.43	24.9%	9.8%	4.0%	.268	8.05	15.0%	-1.4%	20	+3.62	3.10	145	77
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	77
Jake Diekman L 2016 · 3.23 FIP	29	SU	3.23	26.7%	11.3%	1.7%	.241	3.09	28.6%	15.8%	115	-0.14	2.36	455	77
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	76
Tommy Layne L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	30	SU	3.61	21.7%	12.1%	1.5%	.284	3.34	20.2%	11.0%	97	-0.27	1.32	182	76
Dan Jennings L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	30	SU	4.32	19.1%	9.0%	3.1%	.245	3.88	16.6%	8.5%	64	-0.44	3.11	244	76
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	76
Buddy Boshers L 2018 · 3.22 FIP	30	SU	3.22	22.9%	6.6%	2.2%	.314	3.73	25.3%	14.9%	55	+0.51	2.80	223	76
Josh Edgin L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SU	4.02	16.3%	10.2%	1.8%	.303	3.63	29.2%	20.0%	43	-0.39	3.63	113	75
Ryan Buchter L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	30	SU	4.45	24.3%	9.3%	4.0%	.202	4.19	25.3%	15.6%	85	-0.26	2.37	296	75
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	75
Dan Runzler L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	19.0%	13.1%	1.2%	.383	4.07	16.5%	4.0%	63	+0.29	3.78	127	74
Zack Britton L 2018 · 3.89 FIP	30	SU	3.89	20.1%	12.4%	1.7%	.234	3.57	21.1%	8.3%	99	-0.32	1.58	309	74
Franklin Morales L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	29	SU	3.37	15.9%	5.4%	1.7%	.271	4.02	15.0%	7.0%	39	+0.65	3.37	101	73
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	20.9%	10.2%	1.14	4.51
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68