Germán Márquez
P
San Diego Padres
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 230 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION59 act + 55 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 116
ERA5.11
FIP4.87
K%15.1%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%6.1%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5294.7
Whiff%
p1320.1%
K%
p1015.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.362
SL+0.6 (11%)
CH (3%)
SI (12%)
CU (35%)
FB-4.2 (51%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | 26 | 23 | 139 | 596 | 104 | 29 | 6 | 88% | 5.3 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 3.56 | 3.75 | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | 26 | 23 | 139 | 596 | 104 | 29 | 6 | 88% | 5.3 | 17.4% | 4.9% | 12.6% | 1.0% | 3.56 | 2.79 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 29 | 187 | 775 | 170 | 44 | 16 | 91% | 5.9 | 18.4% | 6.1% | 12.3% | 1.9% | 3.36 | 3.35 | +4.5 |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 29 | 187 | 775 | 170 | 44 | 16 | 91% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 5.7% | 16.3% | 2.1% | 3.36 | 3.10 | +5.0 |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 31 | 172 | 738 | 165 | 46 | 27 | 97% | 5.4 | 21.0% | 6.6% | 14.4% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 3.66 | +3.5 |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 31 | 172 | 738 | 165 | 46 | 27 | 97% | 5.4 | 22.4% | 6.2% | 16.1% | 3.7% | 4.29 | 4.02 | +2.8 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 33 | 33 | 196 | 817 | 230 | 52 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 28.2% | 6.4% | 21.8% | 2.3% | 3.77 | 2.76 | +6.0 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 33 | 33 | 196 | 817 | 230 | 52 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 28.2% | 6.4% | 21.8% | 2.9% | 3.77 | 3.14 | +5.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 28 | 28 | 174 | 721 | 175 | 35 | 29 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.3% | 4.9% | 19.4% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 3.36 | +4.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 28 | 28 | 174 | 721 | 175 | 35 | 29 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.3% | 4.9% | 19.4% | 4.0% | 4.76 | 3.86 | +3.1 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 13 | 13 | 82 | 344 | 73 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 21.2% | 7.3% | 14.0% | 1.3% | 3.75 | 2.96 | +2.0 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 13 | 13 | 82 | 344 | 73 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 21.2% | 7.3% | 14.0% | 1.7% | 3.75 | 3.19 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 32 | 32 | 180 | 756 | 176 | 59 | 21 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.3% | 7.8% | 15.5% | 2.1% | 4.40 | 3.29 | +4.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 32 | 32 | 180 | 756 | 176 | 59 | 21 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.3% | 7.8% | 15.5% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 3.64 | +3.7 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 31 | 31 | 182 | 779 | 150 | 63 | 30 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.95 | 4.12 | +2.7 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 31 | 31 | 182 | 779 | 150 | 63 | 30 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 3.9% | 4.95 | 4.64 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 4 | 4 | 20 | 80 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 21.2% | 3.8% | 17.5% | 3.8% | 4.95 | 3.88 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 4 | 4 | 20 | 80 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 21.2% | 3.8% | 17.5% | 5.0% | 4.95 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 6 levels | 8 | 8 | 23 | 110 | 27 | 9 | 5 | 100% | 2.9 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 16.4% | 4.5% | 7.04 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 6 levels | 8 | 8 | 23 | 110 | 27 | 9 | 5 | 100% | 2.9 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 16.4% | 4.5% | 7.04 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 134 | 621 | 93 | 48 | 24 | 100% | 4.8 | 14.0% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 6.53 | 4.56 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 134 | 621 | 93 | 48 | 24 | 100% | 4.8 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 6.53 | 5.12 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 15 | 12 | 59 | 258 | 41 | 28 | 12 | 80% | 4.0 | 15.3% | 11.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.70 | 5.80 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 55 | 230 | 35 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.1% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 5.11 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 35 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.1% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 5.05 | 4.81 | -0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | SD | — | — | 114 | 488 | 76 | 49 | 20 | — | — | 15.5% | 10.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.90 | 5.36 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | SD | — | — | 96 | 406 | 76 | 49 | 20 | — | — | 18.7% | 12.0% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.76 | 5.71 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 54 | 36 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.62 | 5.63 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 82 | 345 | 47 | 34 | 15 | 100% | 5.8 | 13.5% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.79 | 5.91 | -0.9 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 74 | 314 | 46 | 30 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 14.6% | 9.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.88 | 5.94 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SD | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 54 | 36 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.54 | 5.55 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SD | 14 | 14 | 82 | 346 | 47 | 34 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 13.5% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.71 | 5.83 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 46 | 30 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 14.6% | 9.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.79 | 5.85 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 264 | 260 | 1488 | 6353 | 1278 | 481 | 225 | 98% | 5.6 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.30 | +19.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 854 | 172 | 65 | 30 | 98% | 5.6 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 282 | 272 | 1548 | 6595 | 1352 | 453 | 169 | 96% | 5.5 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 13.6% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 3.65 | +31.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 35 | 200 | 852 | 175 | 59 | 22 | 96% | 5.5 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 13.6% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 3.65 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Germán Márquez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.89 | 15.0% | 8.1% | 3.0% | — | 5.82 | 14.2% | 4.5% | 245 | +0.93 | — | — | — |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2027 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 75 |
| Nate Long R 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 74 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.78 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.45 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.33 | 4.12 | 365 | 74 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.92 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.71 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 142 | +0.79 | 3.92 | 277 | 73 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 73 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.34 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 2.1% | .307 | 4.41 | 12.6% | 2.6% | 145 | +0.07 | 4.23 | 325 | 73 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2027 · 5.12 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.12 | 10.9% | 7.0% | 3.8% | .353 | 3.44 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 160 | -1.68 | 3.29 | 283 | 73 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.90 | 14.5% | 9.1% | 3.4% | .307 | 4.44 | 17.0% | 7.9% | 150 | -0.46 | 3.77 | 786 | 72 |
| Miguel González R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.59 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.34 | 3.73 | 469 | 71 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.32 | 11.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | .293 | 3.59 | 10.8% | 5.2% | 216 | -0.73 | 3.18 | 450 | 71 |
| Kyle Davies R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 153 | 70 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 70 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 12.2% | 6.5% | 1.6% | .313 | 4.27 | 11.8% | 3.5% | 216 | +0.48 | 3.56 | 394 | 70 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.03 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 248 | 70 |
| Cory Riordan R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.19 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 154 | 70 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.99 | 13.3% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 500 | 69 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.70 | 13.7% | 5.6% | 1.9% | .281 | 5.05 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 59 | +1.35 | 3.70 | 162 | 69 |
| Thad Weber R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.55 | 10.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .316 | 4.86 | 13.2% | 8.8% | 55 | +0.31 | 4.55 | 363 | 69 |
| Nestor Molina R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.12 | 16.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 401 | 69 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.70 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .262 | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 114 | +0.64 | 3.70 | 240 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 85 | 14.4% | 9.2% | 1.50 | 5.58 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |
| Chi Chi González ('22) | 4 | 64 | 13.3% | 9.0% | 1.41 | 5.44 |
| Sal Romano ('21) | 3 | 86 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 1.29 | 5.10 |
| Drew Hutchison ('22) | 5 | 69 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 1.39 | 5.16 |