Zach Davies
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
+0.1
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA5.54
FIP4.58
xFIP4.79
SIERA5.00
K%20.1%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%10.3%
IP74
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†4040
FB Velo
p1089.4
Whiff%
p2722.0%
K%
p2919.1%
xwOBA vs
p140.355
SL-0.7
CH-4.6
FB-7.6
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 30 | 29 | 162 | 686 | 126 | 60 | 8 | 16.6% | 9.1% | 1.4% | 3.38 | 3.63 | +3.1 |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 30 | 30 | 172 | 718 | 146 | 40 | 20 | 19.8% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 3.86 | 3.71 | +3.1 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 33 | 33 | 191 | 817 | 124 | 52 | 20 | 15.2% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 3.90 | 3.90 | +3.0 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 24 | 24 | 113 | 472 | 93 | 34 | 11 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 4.62 | 3.81 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 31 | 31 | 160 | 672 | 102 | 51 | 20 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 3.55 | 4.39 | +1.7 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 12 | 12 | 69 | 276 | 63 | 19 | 9 | 22.8% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 2.73 | 3.46 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 32 | 148 | 668 | 114 | 73 | 25 | 17.1% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 5.78 | 5.04 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 27 | 27 | 134 | 570 | 102 | 52 | 21 | 17.9% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 4.09 | 4.92 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 22 | 22 | 100 | 460 | 85 | 47 | 11 | 17.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 6.91 | 4.30 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 5 | 5 | 21 | 93 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 11.4% | 10.2% | 2.1% | 4.29 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 48 | 28 | 8 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 5.63 | 4.88 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 41 | 25 | 8 | 15.8% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 5.27 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 34 | 23 | 7 | 15.1% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 5.21 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 28 | 20 | 6 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 5.29 | 5.34 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 246 | 245 | 1272 | 5432 | 934 | 441 | 147 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.16 | +16.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 39 | 200 | 854 | 147 | 69 | 23 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.16 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Davies (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 2.9% | — | 5.17 | 15.2% | 5.0% | 161 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Tim Lincecum R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.86 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 3.5% | .351 | 5.87 | 14.4% | -1.1% | 13 | +1.01 | 4.19 | 166 | 86 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.16 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .234 | 3.75 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 155 | -0.41 | 2.89 | 453 | 80 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2024 · 4.49 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.49 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 149 | 79 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 79 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.82 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 272 | 78 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 76 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 76 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.63 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 5.47 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.84 | 4.63 | 172 | 74 |
| Kazuhisa Makita R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.95 | 21.6% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .270 | 2.74 | 18.9% | 15.2% | 70 | -1.21 | 2.74 | 132 | 73 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.78 | 12.3% | 5.6% | 1.8% | .265 | 4.12 | 12.5% | 5.9% | 144 | +0.34 | 3.32 | 209 | 73 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.34 | 12.7% | 7.6% | 4.3% | .318 | 4.07 | 23.7% | 15.5% | 155 | -1.27 | 3.13 | 244 | 73 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 72 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 125 | 72 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 72 |
| Jeff Samardzija R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.29 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 4.3% | .277 | 4.81 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 198 | -0.48 | 3.88 | 885 | 71 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2025 · 5.20 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.20 | 13.6% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 300 | 71 |
| Fernando Villalobos R 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.70 | 10.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 152 | 71 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.78 | 10.8% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .270 | 5.04 | 8.9% | 0.0% | 51 | +0.26 | 4.78 | 160 | 71 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 70 |
| Jhoulys Chacín R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.34 | 17.5% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .242 | 4.16 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 47 | -0.18 | 3.68 | 887 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.