Zach Davies
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
Age 33
RHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 74 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131121vR 112
ERA4.86
FIP4.73
K%18.3%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%8.6%
ROS IP74
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1089.4
Whiff%
p2722.0%
K%
p2919.1%
xwOBA vs
p140.355
SL-0.7
CH-4.6
FB-7.6
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 29 | 162 | 686 | 126 | 60 | 8 | 97% | 5.4 | 16.6% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 1.6% | 3.38 | 3.70 | +3.2 |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 29 | 162 | 686 | 126 | 60 | 8 | 97% | 5.4 | 18.4% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 1.2% | 3.38 | 3.30 | +4.0 |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 172 | 718 | 146 | 40 | 20 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.8% | 5.6% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 3.86 | 3.81 | +3.2 |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 172 | 718 | 146 | 40 | 20 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.3% | 5.6% | 14.8% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.61 | +3.6 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 33 | 33 | 191 | 817 | 124 | 52 | 20 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.2% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 3.90 | 4.02 | +3.1 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 33 | 33 | 191 | 817 | 124 | 52 | 20 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.2% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 3.90 | 3.98 | +3.2 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 24 | 24 | 113 | 472 | 93 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 4.7 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.62 | 3.92 | +2.0 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 24 | 24 | 113 | 472 | 93 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 4.7 | 19.7% | 7.2% | 12.5% | 2.3% | 4.62 | 3.62 | +2.3 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 31 | 31 | 160 | 672 | 102 | 51 | 20 | 100% | 5.2 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 3.55 | 4.48 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 31 | 31 | 160 | 672 | 102 | 51 | 20 | 100% | 5.2 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 3.55 | 4.41 | +1.9 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 12 | 12 | 69 | 276 | 63 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.8% | 6.9% | 15.9% | 3.5% | 2.73 | 3.97 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 12 | 12 | 69 | 276 | 63 | 19 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.8% | 6.9% | 15.9% | 3.3% | 2.73 | 3.79 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 32 | 148 | 668 | 114 | 73 | 25 | 100% | 4.6 | 17.1% | 10.9% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 5.78 | 5.05 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 32 | 148 | 668 | 114 | 73 | 25 | 100% | 4.6 | 17.1% | 10.9% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 5.78 | 5.24 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 27 | 27 | 134 | 570 | 102 | 52 | 21 | 100% | 5.0 | 17.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.09 | 4.68 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 27 | 27 | 134 | 570 | 102 | 52 | 21 | 100% | 5.0 | 17.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 4.09 | 4.77 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 22 | 100 | 460 | 85 | 47 | 11 | 100% | 4.6 | 17.5% | 10.5% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 6.91 | 4.27 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 22 | 100 | 460 | 85 | 47 | 11 | 100% | 4.6 | 18.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | 6.91 | 4.24 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 5 | 5 | 21 | 93 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 4.2 | 11.4% | 10.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 4.29 | 4.49 | — |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 5 | 5 | 21 | 93 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 4.2 | 12.9% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 4.29 | 4.48 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 69 | 291 | 53 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.86 | 4.73 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 63 | 265 | 46 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 4.96 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | KC | 9 | 9 | 56 | 238 | 39 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.4% | 10.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 5.20 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | KC | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 46 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 4.90 | 4.97 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | KC | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 39 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.4% | 10.8% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 5.14 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 220 | 220 | 1167 | 4983 | 870 | 410 | 151 | 100% | 5.3 | 17.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.33 | +14.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 38 | 200 | 854 | 149 | 70 | 26 | 100% | 5.3 | 17.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 246 | 245 | 1272 | 5432 | 934 | 441 | 153 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.22 | +17.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 39 | 200 | 854 | 147 | 69 | 24 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Davies (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.73 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 2.8% | — | 5.19 | 16.9% | 6.5% | 119 | +0.46 | — | — | — |
| Tim Lincecum R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.96 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 5.91 | 14.4% | -1.1% | 13 | +0.95 | 4.20 | 166 | 85 |
| Chris Smith R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.93 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .306 | 4.55 | 18.4% | 10.2% | 285 | +0.62 | 3.93 | 413 | 73 |
| Matt Garza R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 72 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 72 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 71 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 71 |
| Shaun Marcum R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 123 | 71 |
| Doug Fister R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.59 | 20.1% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .298 | 4.80 | 13.8% | 7.2% | 66 | +1.21 | 3.59 | 455 | 70 |
| Kris Medlen R 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.11 | 16.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.66 | 261 | 70 |
| Dylan Axelrod R 2024 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.43 | 13.7% | 6.3% | 3.1% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 251 | 69 |
| Jeff Samardzija R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.30 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 4.3% | .277 | 4.87 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 198 | -0.43 | 3.63 | 885 | 69 |
| Manuel Flores R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.08 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 515 | 69 |
| Corey Kluber R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.63 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .360 | 3.48 | 21.4% | 16.2% | 244 | -0.15 | 2.27 | 1,190 | 68 |
| Jake Peavy R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.09 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | .278 | 4.36 | 19.6% | 12.9% | 119 | +0.27 | 4.09 | 262 | 68 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2025 · 5.10 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.10 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 250 | 68 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.70 | 13.7% | 5.6% | 1.9% | .281 | 5.05 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 59 | +1.35 | 3.70 | 162 | 67 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.71 | 10.8% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .270 | 4.97 | 8.9% | 0.0% | 51 | +0.26 | 4.71 | 160 | 67 |
| Félix Hernández R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.62 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 5.5% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 682 | 66 |
| Tyson Ross R 2025 · 5.80 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.80 | 15.4% | 11.1% | 4.7% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 449 | 66 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 14.9% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 577 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 1.21 | 5.00 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |