Zach Davies — OGILVIE

Zach Davies P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 33 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.86

FIP4.73

K%18.2%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.4

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p2919.1%

xwOBA vs

p140.355

SL-0.7

CH-4.6

FB-7.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	162	686	126	60	8	97%	5.4	16.6%	9.1%	7.5%	1.4%	3.38	3.60	+2.6
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	29	162	686	126	60	8	97%	5.4	18.4%	8.7%	9.6%	1.2%	3.38	3.30	+3.2
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	172	718	146	40	20	100%	5.7	19.8%	5.6%	14.2%	2.8%	3.86	3.67	+2.6
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	172	718	146	40	20	100%	5.7	20.3%	5.6%	14.8%	2.8%	3.86	3.61	+2.7
2017	24	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	33	33	191	817	124	52	20	100%	5.8	15.2%	6.4%	8.8%	2.3%	3.90	3.90	+2.3
2017	24	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	33	33	191	817	124	52	20	100%	5.8	15.2%	6.4%	8.8%	2.4%	3.90	3.98	+2.1
2018	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	24	24	113	472	93	34	11	100%	4.7	17.4%	7.1%	10.2%	2.4%	4.62	3.84	+1.4
2018	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	24	24	113	472	93	34	11	100%	4.7	19.7%	7.2%	12.5%	2.3%	4.62	3.62	+1.7
2019	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	31	31	160	672	102	51	20	100%	5.2	15.2%	7.6%	7.6%	2.8%	3.55	4.34	+1.1
2019	26	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	31	31	160	672	102	51	20	100%	5.2	15.2%	7.6%	7.6%	3.0%	3.55	4.41	+0.9
2020	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	12	12	69	276	63	19	9	100%	5.8	22.8%	6.9%	15.9%	3.2%	2.73	3.79	+0.9
2020	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	12	12	69	276	63	19	9	100%	5.8	22.8%	6.9%	15.9%	3.3%	2.73	3.79	+0.9
2021	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	32	32	148	668	114	73	25	100%	4.6	17.1%	10.9%	6.1%	3.9%	5.78	5.18	-0.5
2021	28	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	32	32	148	668	114	73	25	100%	4.6	17.1%	10.9%	6.1%	3.7%	5.78	5.24	-0.6
2022	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	27	27	134	570	102	52	21	100%	5.0	17.9%	9.1%	8.8%	3.9%	4.09	4.88	+0.0
2022	29	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	27	27	134	570	102	52	21	100%	5.0	17.9%	9.1%	8.8%	3.7%	4.09	4.77	+0.2
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	100	460	85	47	11	100%	4.6	17.4%	10.2%	7.2%	2.6%	6.91	4.38	+0.6
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	100	460	85	47	11	100%	4.6	17.4%	10.2%	7.2%	2.6%	6.91	4.38	+0.6
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	100	460	85	47	11	100%	4.6	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	2.4%	6.91	4.24	+0.8
2024	31	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	5	5	21	93	12	9	2	100%	4.2	10.7%	8.7%	2.0%	2.1%	4.29	4.47	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	5	5	21	93	12	9	2	100%	4.2	10.7%	8.7%	2.0%	2.1%	4.29	4.47	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	5	5	21	93	12	9	2	100%	4.2	12.9%	9.7%	3.2%	2.2%	4.29	4.48	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			200	200	1048	4481	785	357	135	100%	5.2	17.5%	8.0%	9.6%	3.0%	4.36	4.30	+7.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	KC	1	1	6	25	5	2	1	100%	6.0	18.2%	9.5%	8.7%	2.9%	4.86	4.73	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	KC	10	10	63	265	46	26	8	100%	6.3	17.3%	10.0%	7.3%	3.2%	4.97	5.04	-0.1
2028	35	MLB MLE	KC	9	9	56	238	39	25	8	100%	6.3	16.3%	10.5%	5.8%	3.5%	5.21	5.37	-0.3
2027	34	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	63	266	46	26	8	100%	6.3	17.3%	10.0%	7.3%	3.0%	4.84	4.91	-0.1
2028	35	MLB CTX	KC	9	9	56	236	39	25	8	100%	6.2	16.3%	10.5%	5.8%	3.3%	5.06	5.22	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		220	220	1167	4983	870	408	151	100%	5.3	17.4%	8.2%	9.3%	3.0%	4.42	4.32	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	38	200	854	149	70	26	100%	5.3	17.4%	8.2%	9.3%	3.0%	4.42	4.32	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		246	245	1272	5432	933	438	150	100%	5.2	17.2%	8.1%	9.1%	2.8%	4.27	4.19	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	39	200	854	147	69	24	100%	5.2	17.2%	8.1%	9.1%	2.8%	4.27	4.19	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Davies (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	18.2%	9.5%	2.9%	—	5.20	16.8%	6.6%	119	+0.47	—	—	—
Tim Lincecum R 2016 · 4.88 FIP	32	SP	4.88	17.9%	10.4%	3.6%	.351	5.87	14.4%	-1.1%	13	+0.99	4.20	166	88
Chris Smith R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	34	SP	3.79	20.0%	8.1%	2.5%	.306	4.41	18.4%	10.2%	285	+0.62	3.79	413	73
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	72
Hector Ambriz R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	32	SP	3.63	16.0%	6.4%	2.0%	.273	6.40	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.77	3.63	155	72
Guillermo Moscoso R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	33	SP	3.77	14.5%	6.9%	1.8%	.270	4.64	14.9%	7.5%	176	+0.87	3.77	264	72
Jair Jurrjens R 2017 · 4.27 FIP	31	SP	4.27	16.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	125	71
Shaun Marcum R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	33	SP	4.04	17.8%	6.0%	3.1%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	123	71
Kris Medlen R 2018 · 5.20 FIP	32	SP	5.20	16.2%	10.0%	4.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	261	71
Dylan Axelrod R 2016 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP	4.28	13.7%	6.3%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	251	70
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	69
Matt Garza R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP	4.57	15.7%	8.1%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	365	69
Jake Peavy R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	34	SP	4.07	17.3%	5.7%	3.1%	.278	4.35	19.6%	12.9%	119	+0.28	4.07	262	68
Mitch Talbot R 2018 · 3.82 FIP	34	SP	3.82	13.7%	5.6%	2.1%	.281	5.01	13.2%	8.9%	59	+1.19	3.82	162	68
Tyler Cloyd R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	32	SP	5.21	18.9%	9.5%	4.6%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	250	68
Alfredo Aceves R 2016 · 4.78 FIP	33	SP	4.78	10.8%	7.1%	3.1%	.270	5.10	8.9%	0.0%	51	+0.32	4.78	160	67
Kameron Loe R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	34	SP	3.84	11.9%	5.3%	2.0%	.356	3.38	17.1%	9.1%	133	-0.46	3.38	201	67
Tyson Ross R 2019 · 5.68 FIP	32	SP	5.68	15.4%	11.1%	4.5%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	449	66
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	66
Jonathan Castellanos R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	33	SP	3.63	12.2%	6.5%	1.3%	.313	4.15	11.8%	3.5%	216	+0.52	3.40	394	66
Scott Carroll R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	32	SP	5.71	14.4%	8.6%	5.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	248	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	17.3%	9.9%	1.23	5.00
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38