Dylan Bundy prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Dylan Bundy P Syracuse Mets

Age 33 RHP 6'1" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.49

FIP4.64

K%21.1%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP54

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.0

Whiff%

p2221.3%

p1015.8%

xwOBA vs

p380.326

FB-2.5

CH-5.2

SL-7.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2012	19	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	2	0	2	6	0	1	0	0%	0.8	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	0.0%	0.00	5.21	-0.0
2012	19	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	2	0	2	6	0	1	0	0%	0.8	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	0.0%	0.00	4.90	-0.0
2015	22	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	8	8	22	90	25	5	0	100%	2.8	22.5%	6.1%	16.4%	0.0%	3.68	1.97	—
2015	22	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	8	8	22	90	25	5	0	100%	2.8	27.8%	5.6%	22.2%	0.0%	3.68	1.51	—
2016	23	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	36	14	110	474	104	38	18	39%	3.0	21.9%	8.0%	13.9%	3.4%	4.02	4.14	+0.5
2016	23	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	36	14	110	474	104	38	18	39%	3.0	21.9%	8.0%	13.9%	3.8%	4.02	4.38	+0.2
2017	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	28	28	170	698	152	51	26	100%	6.1	21.8%	7.3%	14.5%	3.4%	4.24	4.03	+1.8
2017	24	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	28	28	170	698	152	51	26	100%	6.1	21.8%	7.3%	14.5%	3.7%	4.24	4.20	+1.4
2018	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	31	31	172	750	184	53	41	100%	5.5	24.5%	7.1%	17.5%	4.9%	5.45	4.63	+0.5
2018	25	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	31	31	172	750	184	53	41	100%	5.5	24.5%	7.1%	17.5%	5.5%	5.45	4.99	-0.2
2019	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	30	30	162	700	162	58	29	100%	5.4	23.1%	8.3%	14.9%	3.7%	4.79	4.25	+1.2
2019	26	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	30	30	162	700	162	58	29	100%	5.4	23.1%	8.3%	14.9%	4.1%	4.79	4.50	+0.7
2020	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	11	11	66	267	72	16	5	100%	6.0	27.0%	6.0%	21.0%	1.8%	3.29	2.59	+2.0
2020	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	11	11	66	267	72	16	5	100%	6.0	27.0%	6.0%	21.0%	1.9%	3.29	2.63	+1.9
2021	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	23	19	91	397	84	34	20	83%	3.9	21.2%	8.6%	12.6%	4.9%	6.06	5.11	-0.2
2021	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	23	19	91	397	84	34	20	83%	3.9	21.2%	8.6%	12.6%	5.0%	6.06	5.24	-0.4
2022	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	29	29	140	595	94	28	24	100%	4.8	15.8%	4.7%	11.1%	4.0%	4.89	4.56	+0.5
2022	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	29	29	140	595	94	28	24	100%	4.8	15.8%	4.7%	11.1%	4.0%	4.89	4.59	+0.5
2023	30	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	6	6	25	121	21	7	12	100%	4.2	14.9%	5.2%	9.7%	10.9%	10.08	8.47	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	6	6	25	121	21	7	12	100%	4.2	14.9%	5.2%	9.7%	10.9%	10.08	8.47	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	6	6	25	121	21	7	12	100%	4.2	17.4%	5.8%	11.6%	9.9%	10.08	8.50	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			190	162	911	3887	852	279	163	85%	4.8	21.9%	7.2%	14.7%	4.2%	4.74	4.47	+4.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.1%	8.8%	12.3%	3.3%	4.49	4.64	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	NYM	8	8	49	206	42	19	7	100%	6.1	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	3.6%	4.76	4.94	-0.0
2028	35	MLB MLE	NYM	7	7	44	185	35	18	7	100%	6.2	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	4.0%	5.07	5.28	-0.2
2027	34	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	49	207	42	19	7	100%	6.1	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	3.6%	4.76	4.94	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	NYM	7	7	44	186	36	18	7	100%	6.3	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	4.0%	5.07	5.28	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		205	177	1003	4277	929	316	178	86%	4.9	21.7%	7.4%	14.3%	4.2%	4.76	4.48	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	35	200	853	185	63	35	86%	4.9	21.7%	7.4%	14.3%	4.2%	4.76	4.48	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		204	176	958	4098	890	291	164	86%	4.7	21.7%	7.1%	14.6%	4.0%	4.86	4.37	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	37	200	856	186	61	34	86%	4.7	21.7%	7.1%	14.6%	4.0%	4.86	4.37	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Bundy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	21.1%	8.8%	3.3%	—	5.10	19.7%	10.1%	92	+0.46	—	—	—
Koji Uehara R 2009 · 3.52 FIP	34	SP	3.52	17.2%	3.9%	2.5%	.300	2.55	33.5%	30.6%	145	-0.97	1.28	481	68
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	67
Josh Lindblom R 2020 · 3.50 FIP	33	SP	3.50	27.2%	8.4%	3.0%	.308	4.46	21.7%	13.8%	255	+0.96	1.83	480	65
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	63
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	61
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	60
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	59
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	59
Hector Ambriz R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	32	SP	3.63	16.0%	6.4%	2.0%	.273	6.40	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.77	2.24	259	58
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	58
Jonathan Castellanos R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	33	SP	3.63	12.2%	6.5%	1.3%	.313	4.15	11.8%	3.5%	216	+0.52	3.40	394	57
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	57
Scott Carroll R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	32	SP	5.71	14.4%	8.6%	5.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	377	57
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	57
César Valdez R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	32	SP-	3.91	16.4%	5.3%	2.8%	.296	2.65	18.7%	15.4%	162	-1.26	1.91	902	57
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	57
Zach Neal R 2022 · 5.53 FIP	33	SP-	5.53	16.1%	5.7%	5.6%	.321	5.98	15.6%	9.6%	101	+0.45	4.24	732	57
Diego Moreno R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	32	SP	4.08	12.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.376	4.75	18.6%	9.2%	30	+0.67	2.29	187	57
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	57
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	106	21.7%	7.6%	1.59	4.75
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Chase Anderson ('24)	5.5	101	19.7%	8.1%	1.48	4.41
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Marco Estrada ('19)	6.3	139	21.0%	7.6%	1.43	4.29
Derek Holland ('21)	7.3	113	19.7%	8.4%	1.35	4.62