Josh Bell — OGILVIE

Josh Bell1B Minnesota Twins

Age 33 S/R 6'3" / 261 lbs MLB BB +3% Svc 10.000 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.9 · 2026

wRC+†vL 78119vR 116

AVG/OBP/SLG.249 / .331 / .435

PA489

HR20

K%19

BB%10

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

50→50

SPD

35→35

EYE

55↘50

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.3peak

2026

Contract

CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 10.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$20M	+0.9	$4M	-$16M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$20M	—	—	—
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$20M	—	—	—
Totals		$58M		$0.2M	-$58M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$58M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2012	19	A	West Virginia Power	66	63	14	4	0	1	1	26	0	1	0	.222	.234	.333	.568	.111	.342	39	2	.228	33	-5	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.4
2013	20	A	West Virginia Power	519	482	106	29	1	11	29	120	3	1	2	.220	.268	.353	.621	.133	.267	23	6	.272	66	-20	-1	+0	-9	+15	-1.5
2014	21	A+	3 teams	562	527	153	24	5	7	27	95	3	11	6	.290	.329	.395	.723	.104	.343	17	5	.312	97	-2	-0	+0	-10	+16	0.4
2015	22	AA	2 teams	572	515	157	23	8	7	40	82	3	9	4	.305	.358	.421	.780	.117	.343	14	7	.341	119	+12	+0	+0	-10	+16	1.9
2016	23	AAA	2 teams	636	574	155	28	5	17	53	107	4	3	8	.270	.336	.425	.761	.155	.303	17	8	.333	113	+9	-3	-5	-11	+18	0.8
2017	24	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	620	549	139	26	6	28	66	117	1	2	4	.253	.334	.475	.810	.222	.272	19	11	.343	120	+14	-1	-11	-11	+18	0.8
2018	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	583	501	131	31	4	12	77	104	0	2	5	.261	.360	.411	.771	.150	.305	18	13	.342	120	+13	-2	-6	-10	+17	1.2
2019	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	613	527	149	34	3	40	74	118	5	0	1	.283	.376	.586	.963	.304	.290	19	12	.389	156	+38	-0	-8	-11	+17	3.7
2020	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	223	195	44	3	0	9	22	59	2	0	0	.226	.311	.379	.690	.154	.267	26	10	.291	81	-5	+0	-3	-4	+6	-0.6
2021	28	MLB	Washington Nationals	568	498	129	22	1	29	65	101	2	0	0	.259	.347	.482	.829	.223	.270	18	11	.359	133	+21	+0	-3	-10	+16	2.4
2022	29	MLB	San Diego Padres	647	555	147	31	3	15	81	102	5	0	1	.265	.363	.413	.776	.148	.297	16	13	.339	117	+13	-0	-8	-12	+18	1.1
2023	30	MLB	Miami Marlins	617	549	129	27	0	22	63	134	2	0	1	.235	.316	.404	.720	.169	.270	22	10	.318	102	+1	-0	-4	-11	+17	0.3
2024	31	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	603	543	130	21	2	19	51	120	6	0	1	.239	.312	.390	.702	.151	.273	20	8	.307	93	-5	-0	-11	-11	+17	-1.0
2025	32	MLB	Washington Nationals	533	468	113	17	1	24	57	88	5	0	3	.241	.330	.436	.766	.194	.248	17	11	.336	115	+9	-1	-4	-10	+15	1.0
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	33	MLB	Minnesota Twins	101	87	22	5	0	3	12	18	1	0	0	.253	.350	.414	.764	.161	.284	18	12	.337	116	+2	+0	-0	-2	+3	0.3
ROS	33	MLB	MIN	388	342	86	16	1	15	40	71	3	1	0	.251	.335	.436	.771	.184	.274	18	10	.342	120	+9	+0	-7	-7	+11	0.6
TOT	33	MLB	MIN	489	429	108	21	1	18	52	89	4	1	0	.252	.338	.431	.769	.179	.277	18	11	.341	119	+10	+0	-7	-9	+14	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	34	MLB	MIN	442	389	96	17	1	17	46	69	4	0	0	.247	.333	.427	.759	.180	.258	16	10	.335	114	+7	+0	-13	-8	+13	-0.1
2028	35	MLB	MIN	387	341	83	15	1	14	40	65	3	0	0	.243	.328	.416	.745	.173	.256	17	10	.326	108	+3	+0	-13	-7	+11	-0.5
2029	36	MLB	MIN	327	288	68	12	1	11	33	58	3	0	0	.236	.321	.399	.720	.163	.253	18	10	.317	100	+0	+0	-12	-6	+9	-0.9
2030	37	MLB	MIN	263	233	52	9	0	8	26	49	2	0	0	.223	.307	.365	.671	.142	.249	19	10	.306	92	-2	+0	-12	-5	+7	-1.2
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			9169	8139	2081	389	43	306	891	1685	56	30	36	.256	.333	.427	.760	.171	.285	18	10	.330	111	+113	-8	-121	-164	+260	8.1
/ 162G	—			650	577	148	28	3	22	63	119	4	2	3	.256	.334	.430	.764	.173	.286	18	10	.330	111	+8	-1	-9	-12	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2012	19	A	West Virginia Power	66	62	17	5	0	1	2	21	0	1	0	.274	.297	.403	.700	.129	.381	32	3	.301	88	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2013	20	A	West Virginia Power	519	459	128	37	2	13	52	90	3	1	2	.279	.356	.453	.809	.174	.319	17	10	.357	131	+18	-1	—	—	+15	3.3
2014	21	AA	Altoona Curve	102	94	27	2	0	0	8	12	0	4	1	.287	.343	.309	.652	.021	.329	12	8	.302	89	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.2
2014	21	A+	Bradenton Marauders	363	331	111	20	4	9	25	43	2	5	4	.335	.385	.502	.887	.166	.364	12	7	.387	154	+22	-1	—	—	+10	3.3
2014	21	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	97	84	18	8	0	0	12	13	1	2	1	.214	.320	.310	.629	.095	.254	13	12	.293	82	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
2015	22	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	145	121	42	7	3	2	21	15	1	2	0	.347	.448	.504	.952	.157	.377	10	14	.417	178	+13	+0	—	—	+4	1.8
2015	22	AA	Altoona Curve	427	368	113	17	6	5	44	50	2	7	4	.307	.383	.427	.810	.120	.335	12	10	.354	129	+14	-0	—	—	+12	2.6
2016	23	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	152	128	35	8	0	3	21	19	0	0	1	.273	.376	.406	.782	.133	.294	12	14	.348	124	+4	-0	-5	-11	+4	-0.9
2016	23	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	484	421	124	23	4	14	57	74	4	3	7	.295	.384	.468	.852	.173	.328	15	12	.378	147	+26	-2	—	—	+14	3.8
2017	24	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	620	549	140	26	6	26	66	117	1	2	4	.255	.336	.466	.802	.211	.278	19	11	.352	127	+19	-1	-11	-11	+18	1.4
2018	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	583	501	131	31	4	12	77	104	0	2	5	.261	.360	.411	.771	.150	.305	18	13	.345	122	+14	-2	-6	-10	+17	1.3
2019	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	613	527	146	37	3	37	74	118	5	0	1	.277	.371	.569	.941	.292	.288	19	12	.403	167	+46	-0	-8	-11	+17	4.5
2020	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	223	195	44	3	0	8	22	59	2	0	0	.226	.311	.364	.675	.138	.273	26	10	.301	89	-3	+0	-3	-4	+6	-0.4
2021	28	MLB	Washington Nationals	568	498	130	24	1	27	65	101	2	0	0	.261	.349	.476	.825	.215	.276	18	11	.363	136	+23	+0	-3	-10	+16	2.6
2022	29	MLB	San Diego Padres	647	552	147	29	3	17	81	102	5	0	1	.266	.363	.422	.786	.156	.296	16	13	.350	126	+19	-0	-8	-12	+18	1.8
2023	30	MLB	Miami Marlins	617	547	135	28	0	22	63	134	2	0	1	.247	.326	.419	.744	.172	.287	22	10	.331	111	+8	-0	-4	-11	+17	1.0
2024	31	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	603	538	134	23	2	19	51	120	6	0	1	.249	.318	.405	.724	.156	.286	20	8	.321	104	+3	-0	-11	-11	+17	-0.2
2025	32	MLB	Washington Nationals	533	468	111	16	1	22	57	88	5	0	3	.237	.326	.417	.743	.179	.247	17	11	.331	112	+7	-1	-4	-10	+15	0.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			5159	4503	1153	225	20	193	577	962	28	4	17	.256	.343	.443	.787	.187	.283	19	11	.348	124	+141	-6	-65	-101	+146	11.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josh Bell (OGILVIE)	33	50	50	35	50	.249/.334/.431	.182	.260	19	1	15%	10%	120	+2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Daryle Ward 2007 · MLB	32	51→56	54→60	38→30	53	.261/.325/.443	.182	.276	21	3	15%	8%	118	+3.0	.260/.341/.431	.171	.298	18	4	18%	11%	121	+3.2	.238/.320/.387	.149	.278	17	2	20%	10%	91	+0.4
✕Jesús Aguilar 2022 · MLB	32	48→50	56→60	42→40	54	.253/.329/.443	.190	.278	25	2	19%	10%	120	+3.1	.239/.299/.395	.156	.282	21	3	23%	7%	95	+1.4	.227/.285/.359	.132	.276	18	1	24%	7%	76	+0.0
●Rondell White 2005 · MLB	33	52→62	54→60	37→40	49	.267/.325/.443	.177	.286	22	3	16%	7%	118	+3.0	.269/.315/.427	.158	.292	18	3	14%	5%	109	+2.4	.263/.300/.404	.141	.285	15	1	14%	4%	94	+0.7
✕Justin Smoak 2020 · MLB	33	45→52	59→65	39→30	61	.241/.347/.455	.215	.271	27	1	23%	14%	131	+3.9	.224/.320/.406	.182	.275	22	5	26%	11%	107	+2.2	.175/.250/.349	.174	.225	20	0	32%	8%	58	-0.3
✕Juan Rivera 2011 · MLB	33	51→61	55→60	40	51	.264/.316/.442	.178	.264	23	3	12%	7%	114	+2.7	.253/.308/.391	.138	.269	16	5	13%	7%	97	+1.5	.248/.300/.364	.116	.266	13	4	12%	6%	84	+0.4
✕Ty Wigginton 2011 · MLB	33	50→55	52→60	37→50	50	.258/.317/.424	.166	.279	20	3	16%	7%	110	+2.4	.238/.308/.385	.147	.275	17	6	20%	9%	96	+1.5	.231/.310/.377	.146	.268	18	7	20%	9%	89	+0.6
✕Matt Joyce 2018 · MLB	33	44→54	56→60	42→50	60	.232/.338/.430	.198	.264	24	4	22%	13%	120	+3.1	.247/.348/.416	.169	.293	20	4	21%	13%	121	+3.2	.251/.359/.382	.131	.309	15	1	22%	14%	111	+0.9
✕Neil Walker 2019 · MLB	33	50→57	51→55	42→45	56	.252/.335/.412	.160	.286	19	3	19%	10%	114	+2.7	.248/.327/.385	.137	.302	14	5	21%	10%	104	+2.0	.261/.344/.390	.129	.317	12	5	20%	11%	104	+1.3
●Mitch Moreland 2018 · MLB	32	46→56	57→60	43→40	49	.243/.314/.440	.196	.273	25	2	22%	8%	113	+2.6	.241/.319/.444	.203	.275	25	3	22%	10%	115	+2.8	.238/.319/.448	.210	.267	27	2	22%	10%	113	+1.4
✕Shelley Duncan 2013 · MLB	33	42→43	54→60	40→45	51	.223/.301/.401	.178	.257	23	4	24%	9%	98	+1.6	.197/.264/.333	.136	.240	16	4	25%	8%	64	-0.8	.164/.225/.275	.111	.202	12	0	26%	7%	30	-2.3
●Aubrey Huff 2010 · MLB	33	53→60	53→60	38→45	53	.271/.333/.454	.183	.288	20	3	14%	8%	124	+3.4	.257/.336/.426	.169	.278	19	5	15%	10%	118	+3.0	.251/.338/.411	.160	.271	18	5	15%	11%	109	+1.8
✕Nick Swisher 2014 · MLB	33	51→55	52→60	41→40	59	.256/.353/.432	.176	.303	19	3	22%	13%	127	+3.6	.230/.312/.370	.140	.288	15	2	24%	10%	93	+1.3	.211/.287/.325	.114	.270	13	0	25%	9%	67	-0.3
●Adam Lind 2017 · MLB	34	52→61	55→60	41→40	52	.268/.332/.452	.184	.297	22	2	19%	9%	123	+3.3	.252/.308/.431	.179	.281	23	3	19%	8%	108	+2.3	.247/.300/.413	.166	.274	22	1	19%	7%	94	+0.6
●Aaron Guiel 2006 · MLB	33	45→53	54→60	43→45	48	.235/.309/.420	.185	.266	22	6	21%	7%	106	+2.2	.232/.318/.424	.192	.268	23	6	22%	9%	111	+2.5	.222/.327/.430	.209	.249	25	3	22%	10%	115	+2.0
✕Eduardo Escobar 2023 · MLB	34	47→56	55→60	43→50	48	.248/.306/.441	.192	.284	23	2	22%	8%	109	+2.4	.241/.295/.397	.156	.297	17	5	24%	7%	92	+1.2	.231/.276/.341	.110	.296	11	4	25%	6%	67	-0.3
●Marty Cordova 2002 · MLB	33	54→58	54→55	39→40	47	.277/.333/.452	.174	.307	22	5	18%	6%	124	+3.4	.261/.331/.440	.179	.301	21	4	20%	9%	120	+3.1	.250/.324/.430	.179	.293	21	1	22%	9%	109	+2.0
●Dan Johnson 2012 · MLB	32	43→53	54→60	43→30	56	.228/.317/.406	.178	.249	23	3	20%	11%	105	+2.1	.227/.314/.408	.181	.247	24	2	19%	11%	105	+2.1	.216/.310/.392	.176	.233	24	1	20%	11%	99	+1.6
✕John Mabry 2005 · MLB	34	51	56→60	41→30	52	.266/.336/.459	.193	.300	25	4	21%	9%	127	+3.6	.237/.306/.396	.159	.286	18	3	23%	9%	98	+1.6	.218/.286/.360	.141	.266	15	0	23%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Eric Karros 2001 · MLB	33	46→55	58→55	42→40	54	.249/.322/.451	.202	.265	27	5	19%	9%	119	+3.1	.254/.317/.415	.161	.282	20	5	17%	8%	108	+2.3	.261/.320/.404	.144	.287	17	3	16%	7%	102	+1.5
●Dmitri Young 2007 · MLB	33	51→61	55→60	44→45	47	.266/.322/.451	.186	.296	23	3	19%	7%	119	+3.1	.287/.353/.447	.160	.327	16	3	17%	9%	130	+3.8	.308/.382/.466	.158	.348	15	0	15%	10%	136	+2.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)