Josh Bell

1B Minnesota Twins

Age 34 S/R 6'3" / 261 lbs MLB Svc 10.308 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	31	MLBARI	603	.249/.318/.405	19	0	101	-0.8
2025	32	MLBWSH	533	.237/.326/.417	22	0	109	0.3
2026	33	MLBMIN	631	.255/.322/.419	21	2	107	0.8
2027PROJ	34	MLBMIN	481	.251/.325/.427	18	2	111	0.7
2028PROJ	35	MLBMIN	399	.238/.311/.400	14	1	100	-0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractCONFIRMED

Control thru2028Service10.308First FA2029

2027Ext$20M2028Ext$20M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA72

Barrel%60

Avg EV59

Bat Spd52

Speed20

Form.256/.329/.419 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .250/.322/.426

CompsMorgan Burkhart (age 34) · Greg Norton (age 35) · Shelley Duncan (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 111111vR 111

AVG/OBP/SLG.251 / .325 / .427

PA481

HR18

K%19

BB%9

BABIP276

ISO174

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$33M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

460.248

POWER

Barrel%

609.6

Avg EV

5989.7

Bat Spd

5271.5

SPEED

Sprint

2026.0

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%17%▲16% over 106 PA (60d) · proj 19%

BB%9%·9% over 106 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.163▼.140 over 93 AB (60d) · proj .176

HR/BB5.2%·5.1% over 79 BBE (60d) · proj 5.3%

BABIP.276·.280 over 75 BIP (60d) · proj .276

SLASH.256/.329/.419·proj .250/.322/.426

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1241 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

368

873

—

wRC+

114

▶▶R

wOBA

297

336

▶R

ISO

150

173

▶R

BABIP

243

278

▶R

19.0%

18.0%

▶R

BB%

9.8%

9.5%

—

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 10.308 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$20M	+0.7	$3M	-$17M
2028	Ext	$20M	—	—	—
Totals		$39M		$0.9M	-$36M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	19	A	West Virginia Power	—	66	62	17	5	0	1	2	21	0	1	0	274	297	403	700	129	381	32	3	301	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A	West Virginia Power	—	519	459	128	37	2	13	52	90	3	1	2	279	356	453	809	174	319	17	10	357	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA	Altoona Curve	—	102	94	27	2	0	0	8	12	0	4	1	287	343	309	652	21	329	12	8	302	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+	Bradenton Marauders	—	363	331	111	20	4	9	25	43	2	5	4	335	385	502	887	166	364	12	7	387	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	97	84	18	8	0	0	12	13	1	2	1	214	320	310	629	95	254	13	12	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	145	121	42	7	3	2	21	15	1	2	0	347	448	504	952	157	377	10	14	417	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA	Altoona Curve	—	427	368	113	17	6	5	44	50	2	7	4	307	383	427	810	120	335	12	10	354	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	152	128	35	8	0	3	21	19	0	0	1	273	376	406	782	133	294	12	14	348	122	+4	-0	-5	-11	+3	-1.0
2016	23	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	484	421	124	23	4	14	57	74	4	3	7	295	384	468	852	173	328	15	12	378	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	620	549	140	26	6	26	66	117	1	2	4	255	336	466	802	211	278	19	11	352	125	+18	-1	-11	-11	+13	0.8
2018	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	583	501	131	31	4	12	77	104	0	2	5	261	360	411	771	150	305	18	13	345	119	+13	-2	-6	-10	+13	0.8
2019	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	613	527	146	37	3	37	74	118	5	0	1	277	371	569	941	292	288	19	12	403	154	+39	-0	-8	-11	+13	3.4
2020	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	223	195	44	3	0	8	22	59	2	0	0	226	311	364	675	138	273	26	10	301	86	-4	+0	-3	-4	+5	-0.7
2021	28	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	568	498	130	24	1	27	65	101	2	0	0	261	349	476	825	215	276	18	11	363	130	+20	+0	-3	-10	+12	1.9
2022	29	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	647	552	147	29	3	17	81	102	5	0	1	266	363	422	786	156	296	16	13	350	123	+17	-0	-8	-12	+14	1.2
2023	30	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	617	547	135	28	0	22	63	134	2	0	1	247	326	419	744	172	287	22	10	331	116	+12	-0	-4	-11	+13	1.0
2024	31	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	603	538	134	23	2	19	51	120	6	0	1	249	318	405	724	156	286	20	8	321	101	+0	-0	-11	-11	+13	-0.8
2025	32	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	533	468	111	16	1	22	57	88	5	0	3	237	326	417	743	179	247	17	11	331	109	+6	-1	-4	-10	+12	0.3
2026	33	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	631	568	145	28	1	21	52	124	4	2	0	255	322	419	741	164	289	20	8	327	107	+5	+0	-0	-11	+14	0.8
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	5790	5071	1298	253	21	214	629	1086	32	6	17	256	341	441	782	185	284	19	11	345	120	+137	-6	-65	-112	+125	8.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	19	A MLE	West Virginia Power	—	66	63	14	4	0	1	1	27	0	1	0	222	234	333	568	111	335	41	2	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A MLE	West Virginia Power	—	519	479	113	31	2	11	32	123	3	1	2	236	288	378	666	142	285	24	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	102	97	28	2	0	0	5	15	0	4	1	289	324	309	633	21	334	15	5	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+ MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	363	339	101	18	4	6	17	62	2	5	4	298	335	428	763	130	343	17	5	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	145	129	41	6	3	2	13	18	1	2	0	318	385	457	842	140	350	12	9	376	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	427	384	121	17	6	5	29	61	2	7	4	315	366	430	796	115	342	14	7	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	152	128	35	8	0	3	21	19	0	0	1	273	376	406	782	133	294	12	14	349	122	+4	-0	-5	-11	+3	-1.0
2016	23	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	484	445	125	21	5	14	33	88	4	3	7	281	336	445	781	164	318	18	7	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	620	553	141	25	6	28	62	117	1	2	4	255	331	474	805	219	278	19	10	353	125	+18	-1	-11	-11	+13	0.8
2018	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	583	503	131	30	4	13	75	104	0	2	5	260	356	414	770	153	305	18	13	344	119	+13	-2	-6	-10	+13	0.8
2019	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	613	540	147	35	3	40	61	118	5	0	1	272	351	570	922	298	288	19	10	396	154	+39	-0	-8	-11	+13	3.4
2020	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	223	199	45	3	0	9	18	59	2	0	0	226	297	377	674	151	273	26	8	295	86	-4	+0	-3	-4	+5	-0.7
2021	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	568	500	130	24	1	27	63	101	2	0	0	260	345	474	819	214	276	18	11	360	130	+20	+0	-3	-10	+12	1.9
2022	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	647	559	150	31	3	17	77	102	5	0	1	268	362	426	788	157	296	16	12	349	123	+17	-0	-8	-12	+14	1.2
2023	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	617	551	140	31	0	23	61	134	2	0	1	254	331	436	766	181	287	22	10	340	116	+12	-0	-4	-11	+13	1.0
2024	31	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	603	544	132	20	2	20	50	120	6	0	1	243	313	397	710	154	286	20	8	317	101	+0	-0	-11	-11	+13	-0.8
2025	32	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	533	469	111	16	1	22	56	88	5	0	3	237	325	416	740	179	247	17	11	330	109	+6	-1	-4	-10	+12	0.3
2026	33	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	631	569	145	28	1	21	52	124	4	2	0	255	322	418	740	163	289	20	8	327	107	+5	+0	-0	-11	+14	0.8
2012	19	A MLE	West Virginia Power	—	66	63	14	4	0	1	1	27	0	1	0	222	234	333	568	111	351	41	2	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A RAW	West Virginia Power	—	66	62	17	5	0	1	2	21	0	1	0	274	297	403	700	129	381	32	3	301	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A MLE	West Virginia Power	—	519	479	113	31	2	11	32	123	3	1	2	236	288	378	666	142	291	24	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A RAW	West Virginia Power	—	519	459	128	37	2	13	52	90	3	1	2	279	356	453	809	174	319	17	10	357	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	562	527	154	24	4	7	27	93	3	11	6	292	330	393	723	101	343	17	5	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	562	509	156	30	4	9	45	68	3	11	6	306	366	434	800	128	339	12	8	355	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	572	514	163	24	9	7	41	79	3	9	4	317	371	440	811	123	355	14	7	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	572	489	155	24	9	7	65	65	3	9	4	317	400	446	845	129	346	11	11	370	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	636	573	159	28	5	17	54	107	4	3	8	277	344	433	777	155	313	17	8	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	636	549	159	31	4	17	78	93	4	3	8	290	382	454	835	164	320	15	12	371	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	620	553	141	25	6	28	62	117	1	2	4	255	331	474	805	219	274	19	10	353	125	+18	-1	-11	-11	+13	0.8
2017	24	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	620	549	140	26	6	26	66	117	1	2	4	255	336	466	802	211	278	19	11	352	125	+18	-1	-11	-11	+13	0.8
2018	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	583	503	131	30	4	13	75	104	0	2	5	260	356	414	770	153	302	18	13	344	119	+13	-2	-6	-10	+13	0.8
2018	25	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	583	501	131	31	4	12	77	104	0	2	5	261	360	411	771	150	305	18	13	345	119	+13	-2	-6	-10	+13	0.8
2019	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	613	540	147	35	3	40	61	118	5	0	1	272	351	570	922	298	275	19	10	396	154	+39	-0	-8	-11	+13	3.4
2019	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	613	527	146	37	3	37	74	118	5	0	1	277	371	569	941	292	288	19	12	403	154	+39	-0	-8	-11	+13	3.4
2020	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	223	199	45	3	0	9	18	59	2	0	0	226	297	377	674	151	267	26	8	295	86	-4	+0	-3	-4	+5	-0.7
2020	27	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	223	195	44	3	0	8	22	59	2	0	0	226	311	364	675	138	273	26	10	301	86	-4	+0	-3	-4	+5	-0.7
2021	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	568	500	130	24	1	27	63	101	2	0	0	260	345	474	819	214	275	18	11	360	130	+20	+0	-3	-10	+12	1.9
2021	28	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	568	498	130	24	1	27	65	101	2	0	0	261	349	476	825	215	276	18	11	363	130	+20	+0	-3	-10	+12	1.9
2022	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	647	559	150	31	3	17	77	102	5	0	1	268	362	426	788	157	298	16	12	349	123	+17	-0	-8	-12	+14	1.2
2022	29	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	647	552	147	29	3	17	81	102	5	0	1	266	363	422	786	156	296	16	13	350	123	+17	-0	-8	-12	+14	1.2
2023	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	617	551	140	31	0	23	61	134	2	0	1	254	331	436	766	181	295	22	10	340	116	+12	-0	-4	-11	+13	1.0
2023	30	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	617	547	135	28	0	22	63	134	2	0	1	247	326	419	744	172	287	22	10	331	116	+12	-0	-4	-11	+13	1.0
2024	31	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	603	544	132	20	2	20	50	120	6	0	1	243	313	397	710	154	275	20	8	317	101	+0	-0	-11	-11	+13	-0.8
2024	31	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	603	538	134	23	2	19	51	120	6	0	1	249	318	405	724	156	286	20	8	321	101	+0	-0	-11	-11	+13	-0.8
2025	32	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	533	469	111	16	1	22	56	88	5	0	3	237	325	416	740	179	246	17	11	330	109	+6	-1	-4	-10	+12	0.3
2025	32	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	533	468	111	16	1	22	57	88	5	0	3	237	326	417	743	179	247	17	11	331	109	+6	-1	-4	-10	+12	0.3
2026	33	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	631	569	145	28	1	21	52	124	4	2	0	255	322	418	740	163	288	20	8	327	107	+5	+0	-0	-11	+14	0.8
2026	33	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	631	568	145	28	1	21	52	124	4	2	0	255	322	419	741	164	289	20	8	327	107	+5	+0	-0	-11	+14	0.8
2012	19	A MLE	West Virginia Power	—	66	65	14	4	0	1	1	27	0	1	0	215	234	323	557	108	335	41	2	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A MLE	West Virginia Power	—	519	479	113	31	2	11	32	123	3	1	2	236	288	378	666	142	285	24	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	562	527	154	24	4	7	27	93	3	11	6	292	330	393	723	101	341	17	5	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	572	523	163	24	9	7	41	79	3	9	4	312	371	432	803	120	344	14	7	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	636	573	159	28	5	17	54	107	4	3	8	277	344	433	777	155	312	17	8	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	620	552	141	25	6	28	62	117	1	2	4	255	331	475	806	219	278	19	10	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	583	503	131	30	4	13	75	104	0	2	5	260	356	414	770	153	305	18	13	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	613	542	147	35	3	40	61	118	5	0	1	271	351	568	920	297	288	19	10	396	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	223	201	45	3	0	9	18	59	2	0	0	224	297	373	670	149	273	26	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	568	498	130	24	1	27	63	101	2	0	0	261	345	476	821	215	276	18	11	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	647	560	150	31	3	17	77	102	5	0	1	268	362	425	787	157	296	16	12	349	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	617	549	140	31	0	23	61	134	2	0	1	255	331	437	768	182	287	22	10	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	603	542	132	20	2	20	50	120	6	0	1	244	313	399	712	155	286	20	8	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	533	467	111	16	1	22	56	88	5	0	3	238	325	418	742	180	247	17	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	631	570	145	28	1	21	52	124	4	2	0	254	322	418	739	163	289	20	8	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	603	542	132	20	2	20	50	120	6	0	1	244	313	399	712	155	286	20	8	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	533	467	111	16	1	22	56	88	5	0	3	238	325	418	742	180	247	17	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	631	570	145	28	1	21	52	124	4	2	0	254	322	418	739	163	289	20	8	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	551	492	123	22	1	21	50	104	4	2	1	250	324	426	751	176	276	19	9	332	111	+7	+0	-2	-10	+12	0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	481	431	107	19	1	18	43	91	4	2	1	251	325	427	752	177	276	19	9	333	111	+6	+0	-1	-9	+10	0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	399	358	85	14	1	14	35	79	3	1	0	238	311	400	710	162	265	20	9	316	100	-0	+0	-7	-7	+9	-0.5
2028	35	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	399	358	85	14	1	14	35	79	3	1	0	238	311	400	711	162	265	20	9	316	100	-0	+0	-7	-7	+9	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	6189	5429	1383	267	22	228	664	1165	35	7	17	255	339	438	777	183	283	19	11	343	114	+137	-5	-72	-119	+134	7.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	145	28	2	24	70	122	4	1	2	254	340	437	776	182	282	19	11	343	114	+14	-1	-8	-13	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	8873	7932	2067	387	43	295	808	1666	52	34	37	261	333	432	765	171	293	19	9	337	114	+143	-5	-73	-128	+145	8.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	151	28	3	22	59	122	4	2	3	260	332	432	764	172	292	19	9	337	114	+14	-1	-7	-12	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2016 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 484 PAwOBA .364 → .341 (−24)K% 15.3% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.29%	÷1.015	×1.200	—	—	18.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.12%	÷1.054	×0.690	—	×1.048	6.95%
HBP% /PA	0.83%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.81%
Singles /BIP	23.92%	÷0.998	×0.930	×1.014	×1.048	23.69%
Doubles /BIP	6.63%	÷1.010	×0.830	×1.014	×1.048	5.79%
Triples /BIP	1.15%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.014	×1.048	1.32%
Home runs /BIP	4.03%	÷0.933	×0.840	—	×1.048	3.81%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 100, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .364 → .341; ISO .173 → .169; BABIP .328 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAltoona Curve · 427 PAwOBA .349 → .345 (−4)K% 11.7% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.71%	÷1.005	×1.220	—	—	14.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.37%	÷1.004	×0.700	—	×1.027	6.71%
HBP% /PA	0.47%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.41%
Singles /BIP	26.73%	÷0.997	×0.970	×1.041	×1.027	27.82%
Doubles /BIP	5.35%	÷0.953	×0.860	×1.041	×1.027	5.16%
Triples /BIP	1.89%	÷1.150	×0.950	×1.041	×1.027	1.67%
Home runs /BIP	1.57%	÷0.912	×0.780	—	×1.027	1.38%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.

Result: wOBA .349 → .345; ISO .120 → .115; BABIP .335 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 145 PAwOBA .409 → .376 (−32)K% 10.3% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.34%	÷0.977	×1.200	—	—	12.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.10%	÷1.077	×0.690	—	×1.050	8.81%
HBP% /PA	0.69%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.68%
Singles /BIP	28.30%	÷1.044	×0.930	×1.006	×1.050	26.63%
Doubles /BIP	6.60%	÷1.050	×0.830	×1.006	×1.050	5.51%
Triples /BIP	2.83%	÷1.041	×0.970	×1.006	×1.050	2.79%
Home runs /BIP	1.89%	÷0.847	×0.840	—	×1.050	1.97%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 109, 2B 110, 3B 108, K 95, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .409 → .376; ISO .157 → .158; BABIP .377 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 A+Bradenton Marauders · 363 PAwOBA .376 → .326 (−51)K% 11.8% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.85%	÷0.975	×1.420	—	—	17.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.61%	÷1.059	×0.750	—	×1.012	4.74%
HBP% /PA	0.55%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	0.52%
Singles /BIP	27.08%	÷1.004	×0.920	×1.033	×1.012	25.92%
Doubles /BIP	6.94%	÷1.078	×0.960	×1.033	×1.012	6.46%
Triples /BIP	1.39%	÷0.900	×0.810	×1.033	×1.012	1.31%
Home runs /BIP	3.12%	÷1.337	×0.880	—	×1.012	2.08%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 167, 1B 101, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 95, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.

Result: wOBA .376 → .326; ISO .166 → .130; BABIP .364 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAltoona Curve · 102 PAwOBA .294 → .279 (−16)K% 11.8% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.76%	÷0.986	×1.220	—	—	14.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.84%	÷1.078	×0.700	—	×1.042	5.31%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.49%	÷1.017	×0.970	×1.030	×1.042	31.20%
Doubles /BIP	2.44%	÷1.020	×0.860	×1.030	×1.042	2.21%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.950	×1.030	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.833	×0.780	—	×1.042	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 103, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 97, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .294 → .279; ISO .021 → .019; BABIP .329 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AWest Virginia Power · 519 PAwOBA .350 → .286 (−64)K% 17.3% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.34%	÷0.980	×1.340	—	—	23.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.83%	÷1.058	×0.660	—	×1.015	6.22%
HBP% /PA	0.58%	—	×0.770	—	×1.015	0.45%
Singles /BIP	20.60%	÷1.045	×0.920	×1.037	×1.015	19.10%
Doubles /BIP	10.03%	÷1.020	×0.820	×1.037	×1.015	8.48%
Triples /BIP	0.54%	÷1.150	×0.940	×1.037	×1.015	0.47%
Home runs /BIP	3.52%	÷1.003	×0.820	—	×1.015	2.92%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 109, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 96, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .350 → .286; ISO .174 → .143; BABIP .319 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AWest Virginia Power · 66 PAwOBA .301 → .240 (−61)K% 31.8% → 41.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.82%	÷1.040	×1.340	—	—	41.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.03%	÷0.933	×0.660	—	×1.030	2.21%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.770	—	×1.030	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.83%	÷1.035	×0.920	—	×1.030	24.57%
Doubles /BIP	12.20%	÷1.031	×0.820	—	×1.030	9.99%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.040	×0.940	—	×1.030	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.44%	÷0.960	×0.820	—	×1.030	2.15%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 107, 2B 106, 3B 108, K 108, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .301 → .240; ISO .129 → .099; BABIP .381 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Mayberry'68-'82 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,446 PA	9.7	6,446	255	20	252*	362*	481*	-118	-39	23.5	23.6
/162	664	26	2	-12.1	-4.0	2.4	pk7: 24
#2Jeff Burroughs'70-'85 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,449 PA	9.7	6,449	240	16	258*	356*	478*	-85	-77	20.8	20.5
/162	664	25	2	-8.8	-7.9	2.1	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	10.0	6,670	246	9	255	335	438	-119	-106	19.4	17.8
/162	664	24	1	-11.9	-10.5	1.9	pk7: 16
#3Carlos Penalast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,856 PA	8.8	5,856	285	29	231	346	462	-98	-110	14.3	15.3
/162	664	32	3	-11.2	-12.5	1.6	pk7: 16
#4Adam LaRochelast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,329 PA	9.5	6,329	255	13	260	336	462	-113	-125	10.8	12.1
/162	664	27	1	-11.9	-13.1	1.1	pk7: 13
#5Lyle Overbaylast yr '14 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,790 PA	8.7	5,790	151	19	266	348	429	-103	-102	8.8	10.3
/162	664	17	2	-11.9	-11.7	1.0	pk7: 12
#6Sean Casey'97-'08 * career totals — 11 seasons, 5,644 PA	8.5	5,644	130	18	290*	352*	433*	-102	-82	8.5	9.4
/162	664	15	2	-12.0	-9.6	1.0	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josh Bell (OGILVIE)	34	—	—	—	—	248/322/422	174	276	18	2	19%	9%	111	+1.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Morgan Burkhart 2006 · MLB	34	47→46	55	39→30	57	246/355/428	182	273	23	4	19%	11%	124	+3.1	238/327/371	133	280	14	5	19%	9%	101	+1.4	233/321/333	100	277	9	1	18%	9%	88	+0.3
✕Greg Norton 2007 · MLB	35	49	56→60	33→40	51	258/327/448	189	291	25	3	21%	9%	118	+2.6	250/339/395	145	302	16	5	21%	12%	110	+2.1	236/342/350	113	292	11	2	21%	14%	102	+0.5
✕Shelley Duncan 2013 · MLB	33	41→44	54→60	40→45	51	221/297/399	178	253	23	4	23%	9%	96	+1.0	192/258/324	132	234	15	4	25%	8%	64	-1.3	155/214/261	106	191	12	0	26%	6%	32	-2.7
✕Stephen Drew 2017 · MLB	34	41→51	54→55	38→45	52	217/288/399	182	233	22	3	19%	9%	93	+0.8	241/309/398	157	280	17	6	20%	8%	99	+1.3	244/301/345	101	301	6	0	20%	8%	84	+0.0
●Robin Ventura 2002 · MLB	35	44→47	55	35→40	61	233/331/420	186	247	24	4	18%	13%	113	+2.3	241/338/419	178	265	23	3	18%	13%	116	+2.5	239/340/412	172	262	23	2	18%	13%	115	+1.6
●Vinny Castilla 2002 · MLB	35	47→53	53→60	35→40	45	246/289/416	170	264	21	3	17%	5%	97	+1.1	252/292/425	173	268	21	3	15%	5%	99	+1.3	262/312/460	198	279	23	2	16%	6%	116	+2.5
●Ruben Mateo 2013 · AAA	35	47→50	57→60	39→45	41	251/292/445	194	270	26	5	19%	4%	105	+1.7	244/304/428	184	272	24	3	20%	5%	105	+1.7	233/299/406	173	260	24	1	21%	5%	97	+0.7
✕John Mabry 2005 · MLB	34	50	56→60	41→30	49	263/326/453	190	298	25	3	21%	8%	118	+2.7	233/299/388	155	282	18	3	23%	8%	93	+0.8	218/284/359	141	266	15	0	23%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Izzy Alcantara 2007 · AAA	34	46	50→55	40→45	52	238/316/391	153	273	19	8	21%	9%	101	+1.4	229/295/386	157	278	19	8	24%	8%	92	+0.7	206/271/371	165	245	20	2	25%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Matt Joyce 2019 · MLB	34	44→52	56→60	41→50	59	236/334/434	198	264	24	4	21%	13%	118	+2.6	249/349/395	146	305	17	4	22%	13%	114	+2.3	249/363/371	122	311	14	1	22%	15%	115	+0.7
✕Eduardo Escobar 2023 · MLB	34	47→57	55→60	43→50	47	246/301/439	193	282	23	2	22%	7%	106	+1.8	237/290/391	154	292	17	6	24%	7%	91	+0.6	224/269/341	117	286	11	4	25%	6%	71	-0.4
●Scott Brosius 2001 · MLB	34	46→56	50	35→40	54	234/301/384	150	246	19	3	15%	8%	93	+0.8	260/320/414	154	292	17	5	17%	7%	107	+1.8	279/335/433	154	319	16	4	17%	7%	118	+2.1
✕Aaron Guiel 2005 · MLB	32	46→53	52→60	37→45	50	235/313/404	169	268	19	6	20%	8%	103	+1.5	226/306/410	184	258	22	6	22%	8%	102	+1.5	218/301/405	187	246	23	4	22%	8%	99	+1.2
✕Daryle Ward 2007 · MLB	32	51→55	53→60	37→30	50	260/316/438	178	275	21	3	15%	7%	111	+2.1	250/318/415	165	286	18	4	19%	9%	107	+1.8	226/293/367	141	261	16	2	20%	8%	86	+0.1
●Steve Pearce 2018 · MLB	35	48→58	54→60	38→50	51	248/318/428	181	275	22	3	20%	8%	110	+2.1	244/325/413	169	287	20	4	21%	9%	109	+2.0	237/331/406	169	278	20	0	22%	10%	111	+0.7
✕Melvin Nieves 2006 · AAA	34	46	55	43→40	52	234/329/418	184	312	23	7	31%	12%	112	+2.2	217/306/371	154	338	19	6	37%	11%	93	+0.8	191/292/335	144	302	19	0	40%	12%	80	-0.1
✕Ryan Ludwick 2013 · MLB	35	49→55	55→65	37→45	50	253/322/439	186	290	23	2	21%	8%	114	+2.4	240/302/387	147	290	17	3	22%	8%	95	+0.9	227/287/337	110	283	11	0	23%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Edgard Clemente 2010 · AAA	34	46	50	39→40	49	236/302/386	150	279	18	6	22%	8%	95	+0.9	246/305/399	153	301	17	8	23%	7%	99	+1.2	225/287/381	156	284	20	9	28%	6%	84	+0.0
✕Todd Frazier 2020 · MLB	34	44→52	55→60	42→50	52	235/322/420	185	268	24	6	22%	10%	110	+2.1	235/309/391	156	280	18	6	22%	8%	99	+1.2	243/309/394	151	308	14	3	24%	6%	99	+0.4
●Jeromy Burnitz 2003 · MLB	34	43→51	57→65	41→45	54	230/321/426	196	259	25	7	23%	11%	111	+2.1	250/314/471	221	273	30	7	21%	8%	119	+2.7	256/317/483	227	273	31	5	19%	7%	124	+3.0

Josh Bell

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps