Austin Gomber

P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 33 LHP 6'5" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MLBCOL	30	30	165	4.75	4.75	16.7%	5.5%	0.3
2025	31	MIX3 levels	19	18	89	5.28	4.92	17.0%	6.2%	-0.0	K 15.7% · BB 6.2% · FIP 4.78
2026	32	AAADET	30	23	114	5.43	4.62	17.2%	7.4%	—	K 14.8% · BB 6.7% · FIP 4.92
2027PROJ	33	MLBDET	12	12	71	5.11	5.19	14.2%	6.4%	-0.2
2028PROJ	34	MLBDET	11	11	64	5.34	5.49	13.3%	6.9%	-0.4
2029PROJ	35	MLBDET	10	10	58	5.63	5.83	12.3%	7.5%	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo10

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsTomas Solis (age 33) · Jorge Castillo (age 33) · Arturo Lopez (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120129vR 137

ERA5.11

FIP5.19

K%14.2%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%7.7%

Proj IP71

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.4

Whiff%

p1015.9%

p1012.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.372

CH+1.8 (16%)

CU (25%)

SL-3.0 (20%)

FB-15.1 (34%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	22	22	135	538	140	34	10	100%	6.1	19.3%	7.5%	11.8%	2.4%	2.67	3.76	—
2015	21	A RAW	Peoria Chiefs	22	22	135	538	140	34	10	100%	6.1	26.0%	6.3%	19.7%	1.9%	2.67	2.74	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	127	510	116	33	5	100%	6.0	17.6%	7.4%	10.3%	1.3%	2.69	3.23	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	127	510	116	33	5	100%	6.0	22.7%	6.5%	16.3%	1.0%	2.69	2.56	—
2017	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	26	26	143	590	140	51	17	100%	5.5	19.2%	9.5%	9.7%	2.6%	3.34	4.12	—
2017	23	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	26	26	143	590	140	51	17	100%	5.5	23.7%	8.6%	15.1%	2.9%	3.34	3.76	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	22	143	620	143	47	16	54%	3.5	21.6%	7.7%	13.9%	3.0%	3.96	3.89	+1.7
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	22	143	620	143	47	16	54%	3.5	23.1%	7.6%	15.5%	2.6%	3.96	3.54	+2.3
2019	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	11	50	203	54	19	5	92%	4.1	24.7%	9.1%	15.7%	3.0%	3.26	3.82	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	11	50	203	54	19	5	92%	4.1	26.6%	9.4%	17.2%	2.5%	3.26	3.38	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	14	4	29	119	27	15	1	29%	2.1	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	0.9%	1.86	3.28	+0.4
2020	26	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	14	4	29	119	27	15	1	29%	2.1	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	0.8%	1.86	3.24	+0.5
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	119	505	117	39	21	100%	5.0	23.2%	8.0%	15.2%	3.6%	4.60	4.15	+1.1
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	119	505	117	39	21	100%	5.0	23.2%	7.7%	15.4%	4.2%	4.60	4.41	+0.7
2022	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	33	17	125	529	95	33	20	52%	3.8	18.0%	6.2%	11.7%	3.4%	5.56	4.21	+1.0
2022	28	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	33	17	125	529	95	33	20	52%	3.8	18.0%	6.2%	11.7%	3.8%	5.56	4.46	+0.6
2023	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	27	27	139	603	87	42	26	100%	5.1	14.4%	7.0%	7.5%	3.8%	5.50	4.86	+0.1
2023	29	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	27	27	139	603	87	42	26	100%	5.1	14.4%	7.0%	7.5%	4.3%	5.50	5.19	-0.4
2024	30	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	30	30	165	696	116	38	30	100%	5.5	16.7%	5.5%	11.2%	3.8%	4.75	4.48	+0.8
2024	30	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	30	30	165	696	116	38	30	100%	5.5	16.7%	5.5%	11.2%	3.8%	4.75	4.48	+0.8
2024	30	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	30	30	165	696	116	38	30	100%	5.5	16.7%	5.5%	11.2%	4.3%	4.75	4.75	+0.3
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	89	389	66	24	17	95%	4.7	15.7%	6.2%	9.5%	4.0%	5.28	4.78	+0.1
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	18	89	389	66	24	17	95%	4.7	15.7%	6.2%	9.5%	4.0%	5.28	4.78	+0.1
2025	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	18	89	389	66	24	17	95%	4.7	17.0%	6.2%	10.8%	4.4%	5.28	4.92	-0.0
2026	32	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	30	23	114	487	84	36	18	77%	3.8	14.8%	6.7%	8.2%	4.1%	5.43	4.92	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	30	23	114	487	84	36	18	77%	3.8	14.8%	6.7%	8.2%	4.1%	5.43	4.92	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	30	23	114	487	84	36	18	77%	3.8	17.2%	7.4%	9.9%	3.7%	5.43	4.62	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			168	124	706	3041	539	212	120	74%	4.2	17.7%	7.0%	10.8%	3.9%	5.08	4.68	+1.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	DET	12	12	71	300	42	19	11	100%	5.9	14.2%	6.4%	7.7%	3.8%	5.11	5.19	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	64	271	36	19	11	100%	5.8	13.3%	6.9%	6.3%	4.1%	5.34	5.49	-0.4
2029	35	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	58	244	30	18	11	100%	5.8	12.3%	7.5%	4.8%	4.4%	5.63	5.83	-0.6
2028	34	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	64	270	36	19	11	100%	5.8	13.3%	6.9%	6.3%	4.1%	5.34	5.49	-0.4
2029	35	MLB CTX	DET	10	10	58	245	30	18	11	100%	5.8	12.3%	7.5%	4.8%	4.4%	5.63	5.83	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		188	144	828	3556	605	249	142	77%	4.4	17.0%	7.0%	10.0%	4.0%	5.14	4.74	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	35	200	859	146	60	34	77%	4.4	17.0%	7.0%	10.0%	4.0%	5.14	4.74	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		299	245	1378	5789	1066	425	182	82%	4.6	18.4%	7.3%	11.1%	3.1%	4.24	4.20	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	36	200	840	155	62	26	82%	4.6	18.4%	7.3%	11.1%	3.1%	4.24	4.20	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Gomber (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	14.2%	6.4%	3.8%	—	5.65	12.8%	5.6%	122	+0.46	—	—	—
Tomas Solis L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	33	SP	4.86	12.4%	8.5%	3.1%	.273	5.95	10.1%	2.4%	117	+1.09	4.20	327	61
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	61
Arturo Lopez L 2016 · 5.26 FIP	33	SP	5.26	11.5%	7.9%	3.9%	.341	4.92	11.3%	5.2%	224	-0.34	4.34	445	60
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	60
Orlando Lara L 2017 · 4.39 FIP	32	SP	4.39	14.7%	6.5%	3.1%	.346	4.09	22.0%	14.2%	104	-0.30	3.85	426	59
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	59
Sean Nolin L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	33	SP	5.87	19.3%	6.4%	6.5%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	309	52
Paul Oseguera L 2016 · 5.62 FIP	32	SP	5.62	5.6%	12.5%	2.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	162	48
Yohan Flande L 2019 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	10.0%	11.9%	0.8%	.386	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	394	40
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	36
Carlos Teller L 2019 · 4.90 FIP	32	SP-	4.90	13.1%	14.2%	2.0%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	333	35
Darrell May L 2005 · 5.59 FIP	33	SW	5.59	11.6%	7.3%	4.6%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	657	34
Luke Westphal L 2022 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	24.2%	13.4%	2.9%	.302	5.19	15.7%	-0.7%	26	+0.84	2.97	294	33
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	32
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	32
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	32
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	31
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	31
Zach Neal R 2022 · 5.53 FIP	33	SP-	5.53	16.1%	5.7%	5.6%	.321	5.98	15.6%	9.6%	101	+0.45	4.24	732	31
Scott Carroll R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	32	SP	5.71	14.4%	8.6%	5.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	377	31

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	90	16.8%	7.2%	1.54	5.13
Amaury Telemaco ('05)	2.8	70	15.0%	8.0%	1.48	4.94
John Wasdin ('07)	4.0	88	15.2%	7.3%	1.53	5.28
Scott Bailes ('86-'98, -3 WAR*)	3.4	76	15.4%*	8.2%*	1.35*	5.02*
Ross Ohlendorf ('16)	2.9	84	17.2%	8.6%	1.38	4.82
Mark Grant ('84-'93, 0 WAR*)	3.2	91	18.0%*	8.5%*	1.41*	4.84*
Willie Fraser ('86-'95, 0 WAR*)	3.3	110	15.2%*	8.2%*	1.47*	4.73*