Jakob Junis — OGILVIE

Jakob Junis P Texas Rangers

+0.8 WAR

Age 33 RHP 6'3" / 238 lbs MLB Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.8 · 2026

ERA3.57

FIP3.78

xFIP5.13

SIERA4.73

K%21.3%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%15.5%

IP62

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2026

K†5050

SL+1.9 (41%)

CH+1.5 (22%)

FB+0.8 (37%)

SI (21%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	22	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	27	27	160	646	126	30	11	15.2%	5.3%	2.6%	3.78	3.95	+2.4
2016	23	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	27	27	149	619	143	34	18	19.0%	6.0%	3.4%	4.05	4.14	+2.0
2017	24	MLB	Kansas City Royals	32	28	169	710	166	39	21	21.9%	5.6%	3.1%	3.72	3.68	+3.1
2018	25	MLB	Kansas City Royals	30	30	177	758	164	42	32	21.6%	5.5%	4.6%	4.37	4.52	+1.6
2019	26	MLB	Kansas City Royals	31	31	175	771	164	57	31	21.3%	7.4%	4.4%	5.24	4.67	+1.3
2020	27	MLB	Kansas City Royals	8	6	25	114	19	5	7	16.7%	4.4%	6.2%	6.39	5.65	-0.2
2021	28	MLB	Kansas City Royals	25	15	62	275	67	20	12	22.6%	8.1%	4.6%	5.34	4.73	+0.2
2022	29	MLB	San Francisco Giants	28	22	127	551	111	29	19	19.9%	5.5%	3.5%	4.74	4.01	+1.9
2023	30	MLB	San Francisco Giants	40	4	86	367	96	20	12	26.2%	5.4%	3.2%	3.87	3.33	+1.8
2024	31	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	26	8	71	269	55	10	8	20.2%	3.2%	2.8%	2.65	3.31	+1.4
2025	32	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	57	0	67	274	55	16	5	20.1%	5.8%	1.7%	2.97	3.10	+1.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	33	MLB	Texas Rangers	8	0	9	35	6	1	0	—	—	—	2.89	—	—
ROS	33	MLB	TEX	52	—	52	222	45	13	6	20.4%	5.9%	2.5%	3.54	3.88	+0.6
2026 Total	33	MLB	TEX	—	—	62	257	51	14	6	20.0%	5.5%	2.2%	3.44	3.29	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	34	MLB	TEX	59	—	59	248	48	14	6	19.3%	5.8%	2.4%	3.74	3.93	+0.7
2028	35	MLB	TEX	55	—	55	233	43	14	6	18.5%	6.0%	2.6%	3.94	4.08	+0.5
2029	36	MLB	TEX	52	—	52	218	39	14	6	17.7%	6.3%	2.7%	4.12	4.25	+0.4
2030	37	MLB	TEX	48	—	48	203	34	13	6	16.9%	6.6%	2.8%	4.30	4.42	+0.3
2031	38	MLB	TEX	44	—	44	187	30	13	5	16.1%	6.9%	2.9%	4.48	4.61	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			339	198	1279	5389	1101	313	192	20.4%	5.8%	3.6%	4.20	4.07	+17.8
/ 200 IP	—			53	31	200	843	172	49	30	20.4%	5.8%	3.6%	4.20	4.07	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jakob Junis (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.88	20.4%	5.9%	2.5%	—	4.08	18.5%	12.5%	166	+0.20	—	—	—
Tommy Hunter R 2025 · 3.29 FIP	32	SW	3.29	18.9%	5.2%	2.1%	.296	2.73	24.5%	18.6%	25	-0.56	2.73	316	74
Hector Ambriz R 2025 · 3.55 FIP	32	SW	3.55	16.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.273	6.40	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.85	3.55	155	71
Juan Sandoval R 2027 · 3.82 FIP	34	SW	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.34	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.48	3.21	225	71
Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	33	SW	3.82	19.5%	10.0%	2.0%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	272	71
Tyler Sturdevant R 2024 · 4.49 FIP	31	SW	4.49	13.5%	6.7%	3.1%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	149	69
Mark Melancon R 2026 · 3.15 FIP	33	SU	3.15	17.8%	6.9%	1.2%	.357	2.80	21.9%	15.5%	155	-0.35	2.22	428	69
Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	33	SW	4.63	16.3%	8.6%	3.3%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.39	4.11	186	69
Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP	35	SW	4.09	18.1%	9.1%	2.5%	.273	3.07	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.02	3.07	102	69
Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP	33	SW	3.61	22.6%	7.1%	2.8%	.335	2.56	25.0%	20.2%	26	-1.05	2.56	144	68
Blaine Boyer R 2027 · 3.78 FIP	34	SW	3.78	12.3%	5.6%	1.8%	.265	4.12	12.5%	5.9%	144	+0.34	3.32	209	68
Rafael Martín R 2026 · 3.40 FIP	33	SW	3.40	20.4%	5.1%	2.5%	.305	4.70	22.5%	16.5%	47	+1.30	2.89	227	68
Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.61 FIP	33	SU	3.61	17.6%	8.8%	1.6%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.55	2.72	172	67
Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	33	SU	3.57	18.4%	4.7%	2.6%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	283	67
George Kontos R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	33	SW	3.85	14.0%	3.4%	2.7%	.280	5.02	15.4%	6.4%	46	+1.17	3.57	290	67
Hector Navarro R 2028 · 4.37 FIP	35	SU	4.37	15.0%	5.4%	3.4%	.281	2.96	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.41	2.30	126	67
Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.68 FIP	32	SW	4.68	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	337	67
Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.37 FIP	33	SU	3.37	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.52	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.15	3.37	144	67
Jair Jurrjens R 2024 · 4.27 FIP	31	SW	4.27	16.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	125	67
Fernando Salas R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	33	SU	3.97	17.6%	5.3%	3.1%	.278	4.19	20.8%	15.5%	52	+0.22	2.65	288	66
Kameron Loe R 2027 · 3.88 FIP	34	SW	3.88	11.9%	5.3%	2.0%	.356	3.36	17.1%	9.1%	133	-0.52	3.36	201	66

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 8.012 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+0.8	$3M	-$0.8M
Totals		$4M		$3M	-$0.8M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$2027.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$5.0M / $1.2M buyout	DECLINE
2029	MUTUAL OPT	$2025.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	MUTUAL OPT	$8.0M / $3.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	MUTUAL OPT	$2025.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE