Daniel Ponce de Leon prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Daniel Ponce de Leon P Charlotte Knights

Age 34 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 165 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.68

FIP4.70

K%22.4%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP165

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2993.0

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p1015.1%

xwOBA vs

p110.358

CH+1.2

CT-2.1

FB-6.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	119	485	87	30	5	95%	6.0	13.4%	7.2%	6.2%	1.3%	2.12	3.62	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	119	485	87	30	5	95%	6.0	17.9%	6.2%	11.8%	1.0%	2.12	2.94	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	27	27	151	642	122	55	10	100%	5.6	15.4%	9.4%	6.0%	1.6%	3.52	3.88	—
2016	24	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	27	27	151	642	122	55	10	100%	5.6	19.0%	8.6%	10.4%	1.6%	3.52	3.44	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	6	6	29	119	25	13	2	100%	4.8	18.5%	11.5%	7.0%	1.9%	2.17	4.03	—
2017	25	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	6	6	29	119	25	13	2	100%	4.8	21.0%	10.9%	10.1%	1.7%	2.17	3.62	—
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	22	129	541	141	63	6	73%	4.3	23.6%	12.1%	11.5%	1.3%	2.37	3.35	+2.4
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	22	129	541	141	63	6	73%	4.3	26.1%	11.6%	14.4%	1.1%	2.37	2.98	+3.1
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	24	133	561	138	65	13	83%	4.6	22.8%	12.0%	10.8%	2.5%	3.18	4.09	+1.3
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	24	133	561	138	65	13	83%	4.6	24.6%	11.6%	13.0%	2.3%	3.18	3.76	+1.8
2020	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	9	8	33	143	45	20	8	89%	3.6	31.5%	14.0%	17.5%	6.0%	4.96	5.52	-0.2
2020	28	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	9	8	33	143	45	20	8	89%	3.6	31.5%	14.0%	17.5%	5.6%	4.96	5.37	-0.2
2021	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	7	44	202	34	30	6	23%	1.5	15.2%	13.3%	1.9%	3.4%	5.32	5.37	-0.4
2021	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	7	44	202	34	30	6	23%	1.5	16.8%	14.9%	2.0%	3.0%	5.32	5.37	-0.4
2022	30	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	26	26	116	518	131	59	19	100%	4.5	22.3%	12.0%	10.3%	3.9%	6.52	4.89	—
2022	30	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	26	26	116	518	131	59	19	100%	4.5	25.3%	11.4%	13.9%	3.7%	6.52	4.50	—
2023	31	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	8	7	24	131	19	24	8	88%	3.0	12.5%	16.5%	-4.0%	5.8%	9.99	7.33	—
2023	31	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	8	7	24	131	19	24	8	88%	3.0	12.5%	16.5%	-4.0%	5.8%	9.99	7.33	—
2023	31	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	8	7	24	131	19	24	8	88%	3.0	14.5%	18.3%	-3.8%	6.1%	9.99	8.77	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			57	22	148	636	152	77	21	39%	2.6	23.9%	12.1%	11.8%	3.3%	4.33	4.45	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.4%	11.0%	11.4%	3.1%	4.68	4.70	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	CWS	25	25	148	625	134	72	22	100%	5.9	21.4%	11.5%	9.9%	3.5%	4.89	5.03	-0.2
2028	36	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	131	554	113	67	21	100%	6.0	20.4%	12.1%	8.3%	3.8%	5.20	5.40	-0.7
2027	35	MLB CTX	CWS	1	1	8	34	7	4	1	100%	8.0	21.4%	11.5%	9.9%	3.5%	4.89	5.03	-0.0
2028	36	MLB CTX	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.4%	12.1%	8.3%	3.8%	5.20	5.40	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	23	156	670	159	81	22	40%	2.7	23.8%	12.1%	11.7%	3.3%	4.36	4.44	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		75	30	200	861	204	104	28	40%	2.7	23.8%	12.1%	11.7%	3.3%	4.36	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		185	146	778	3342	649	372	84	79%	4.2	19.4%	11.1%	8.3%	2.5%	3.82	4.25	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	38	200	859	167	96	22	79%	4.2	19.4%	11.1%	8.3%	2.5%	3.82	4.25	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Ponce de Leon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	22.4%	11.0%	3.1%	—	5.20	20.9%	9.1%	279	+0.50	—	—	—
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	75
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	72
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	65
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	59
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	59
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.56	486	56
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	56
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	54
Paolo Espino R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	34	SP-	4.32	20.2%	5.1%	4.2%	.277	4.81	16.6%	10.9%	260	+0.49	3.42	933	54
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	53
Josh Lindblom R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	34	SP-	3.79	22.7%	6.9%	3.2%	.319	5.07	20.8%	12.0%	133	+1.28	1.83	480	53
Ryan Vogelsong R 2011 · 3.65 FIP	34	SP	3.65	18.5%	7.3%	2.2%	.274	3.90	18.6%	11.3%	478	+0.25	3.14	1,184	52
Hiroki Kuroda R 2009 · 3.54 FIP	34	SP	3.54	17.9%	4.7%	2.5%	.270	3.43	19.1%	14.2%	618	-0.11	2.96	1,319	52
Chris Smith R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	34	SP	3.79	20.0%	8.1%	2.5%	.306	4.41	18.4%	10.2%	285	+0.62	3.79	477	50
Logan Duran R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	15.3%	8.9%	1.5%	.299	3.66	15.5%	6.6%	29	-0.11	3.42	187	49
Angel Castro R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	34	SP	3.51	14.5%	7.4%	1.3%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	292	48
Casey Lawrence R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	34	SP-	4.55	18.6%	3.9%	4.6%	.237	4.99	13.4%	8.1%	414	+0.44	3.57	1,374	48
Orlando Hernandez R 2004 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	23.4%	10.0%	2.5%	.278	4.34	20.5%	11.7%	438	+0.57	3.35	1,315	48
Francisco Rodriguez R 2017 · 4.43 FIP	34	SP	4.43	11.4%	8.2%	2.3%	.305	5.18	10.7%	1.4%	83	+0.75	3.16	334	48
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	47

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 465 starter careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	85	22.1%	11.8%	1.32	4.76
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.3	87	20.5%	12.0%	1.48	4.11
Alan Benes ('03)	2.5	99	18.6%	10.2%	1.07	4.59
Felix Doubront ('15)	2.6	103	19.5%	9.7%	1.10	4.89