Domingo Tapia prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Domingo Tapia P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 34 RHP 6'3" / 263 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.70

K%23.3%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP50

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.4

Whiff%

p5826.6%

p2618.7%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

FB+2.0

CH+0.8

SL-1.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	3	0	2	21	0	8	0	0%	0.6	0.0%	38.1%	-38.1%	0.0%	43.20	7.93	—
2015	23	AA RAW	Binghamton Mets	3	0	2	21	0	8	0	0%	0.6	0.0%	38.1%	-38.1%	0.0%	43.20	17.50	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	30	138	25	13	3	0%	1.5	14.3%	10.7%	3.6%	2.1%	3.56	4.37	—
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	30	138	25	13	3	0%	1.5	18.1%	9.4%	8.7%	2.2%	3.56	4.02	—
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	10	88	389	85	26	9	26%	2.3	18.2%	7.6%	10.6%	1.9%	4.08	3.57	—
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	10	88	389	85	26	9	26%	2.3	21.9%	6.7%	15.2%	2.3%	4.08	3.38	—
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	4	65	278	45	29	4	8%	1.4	14.8%	10.2%	4.6%	1.7%	3.60	4.06	—
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	4	65	278	45	29	4	8%	1.4	16.2%	10.4%	5.8%	1.4%	3.60	3.85	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	44	1	66	302	52	32	8	2%	1.5	15.2%	11.1%	4.0%	2.8%	5.18	4.77	—
2019	27	AAA RAW	Pawtucket Red Sox	44	1	66	302	52	32	8	2%	1.5	17.2%	10.6%	6.6%	2.6%	5.18	4.55	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	5	0	4	19	4	2	1	0%	0.9	21.1%	10.5%	10.5%	5.3%	2.08	5.54	-0.1
2020	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	5	0	4	19	4	2	1	0%	0.9	21.1%	10.5%	10.5%	5.3%	2.08	5.64	-0.1
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	62	259	54	29	5	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.5%	8.0%	2.1%	3.19	4.04	+0.4
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	62	259	54	29	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.2%	9.7%	1.9%	3.19	3.81	+0.5
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	53	241	43	28	2	0%	1.2	16.3%	11.9%	4.4%	0.9%	4.10	3.72	+0.5
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	53	241	43	28	2	0%	1.2	17.8%	11.6%	6.2%	0.8%	4.10	3.56	+0.6
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	41	192	37	32	7	0%	1.0	17.6%	15.6%	2.0%	3.7%	6.20	5.64	-0.5
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	41	192	37	32	7	0%	1.0	17.6%	15.6%	2.0%	3.7%	6.20	5.64	-0.5
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	41	192	37	32	7	0%	1.0	19.3%	16.7%	2.6%	3.6%	6.20	5.88	-0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			65	0	73	319	56	39	5	0%	1.1	17.6%	12.2%	5.3%	1.6%	4.21	4.06	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.3%	12.5%	10.8%	2.9%	4.67	4.70	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	SD	43	0	45	190	43	24	6	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.7%	9.6%	3.3%	4.85	4.99	-0.2
2028	36	MLB MLE	SD	38	0	40	168	36	22	6	0%	1.1	21.4%	13.0%	8.4%	3.6%	5.11	5.31	-0.3
2027	35	MLB CTX	SD	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.7%	9.6%	3.3%	4.85	4.99	-0.0
2028	36	MLB CTX	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.4%	13.0%	8.4%	3.6%	5.11	5.31	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	0	75	329	58	40	5	0%	1.1	17.7%	12.2%	5.5%	1.6%	4.23	4.05	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		179	0	200	877	154	106	13	0%	1.1	17.7%	12.2%	5.5%	1.6%	4.23	4.05	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		298	15	411	1839	305	205	39	5%	1.4	16.6%	11.1%	5.5%	2.1%	4.36	4.27	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	7	200	895	148	100	19	5%	1.4	16.6%	11.1%	5.5%	2.1%	4.36	4.27	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Domingo Tapia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	23.3%	12.5%	2.9%	—	5.14	21.9%	9.0%	85	+0.44	—	—	—
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	78
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	78
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	76
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	74
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	73
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	71
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	70
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	69
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	69
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	68
Matt Bush R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	32	SU	4.72	17.6%	13.0%	2.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	67
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	66
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	335	66
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	65
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	65
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	65
Rafael Dolis R 2022 · 3.61 FIP	34	SU	3.61	19.9%	11.9%	1.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	200	64
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	64
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	63
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	52	20.7%	13.0%	1.02	4.63
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Rich Loiselle ('01)	1.1	56	17.2%	12.0%	0.88	4.38
Jose Paniagua ('03)	1.8	60	17.3%	11.8%	1.01	4.49
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44