Aaron Sanchez
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
Age 34
RHP
6'4" / 212 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141132vR 123
ERA6.01
FIP5.96
K%13.7%
BB%13.7%
K-BB%-0.0%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p1018.3%
K%
p1015.5%
xwOBA vs
p340.331
CH+1.3
FB-6.2
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 46 | 14 | 102 | 427 | 68 | 50 | 9 | 30% | 2.2 | 16.1% | 11.1% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 3.35 | 4.44 | +1.1 |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 46 | 14 | 102 | 427 | 68 | 50 | 9 | 30% | 2.2 | 15.9% | 11.7% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 3.35 | 4.38 | +1.2 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 30 | 30 | 192 | 790 | 161 | 63 | 15 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 12.4% | 1.9% | 3.00 | 3.43 | +4.4 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 30 | 30 | 192 | 790 | 161 | 63 | 15 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 12.4% | 1.9% | 3.00 | 3.42 | +4.4 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 10 | 44 | 203 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 4.4 | 14.4% | 12.0% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.91 | 5.38 | -0.4 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 10 | 44 | 203 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 4.4 | 15.3% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.91 | 5.17 | -0.3 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 23 | 23 | 116 | 530 | 97 | 66 | 11 | 100% | 5.0 | 18.1% | 11.8% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 5.04 | 4.34 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 23 | 23 | 116 | 530 | 97 | 66 | 11 | 100% | 5.0 | 18.3% | 12.5% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 5.04 | 4.37 | +1.4 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 27 | 27 | 131 | 605 | 115 | 66 | 20 | 100% | 4.9 | 19.0% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 5.89 | 4.59 | +1.2 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 27 | 27 | 131 | 605 | 115 | 66 | 20 | 100% | 4.9 | 19.0% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 5.89 | 4.84 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 14 | 57 | 259 | 39 | 25 | 7 | 88% | 3.6 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 4.74 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 14 | 57 | 259 | 39 | 25 | 7 | 88% | 3.6 | 15.1% | 9.7% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 4.74 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 23 | 122 | 528 | 84 | 34 | 17 | 82% | 4.4 | 14.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 5.15 | 4.85 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 23 | 122 | 528 | 84 | 34 | 17 | 82% | 4.4 | 15.9% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 5.15 | 4.37 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 31 | AAA | Reno Aces | 22 | 20 | 89 | 423 | 68 | 63 | 13 | 91% | 4.1 | 14.1% | 15.6% | -1.5% | 3.3% | 5.54 | 5.70 | — |
| 2023 | 31 | AAA | Reno Aces | 22 | 20 | 89 | 423 | 68 | 63 | 13 | 91% | 4.1 | 16.1% | 14.9% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 5.54 | 5.59 | — |
| 2024 | 32 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 14 | 14 | 61 | 292 | 41 | 39 | 13 | 100% | 4.4 | 12.4% | 14.0% | -1.7% | 5.0% | 7.92 | 6.58 | — |
| 2024 | 32 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 14 | 14 | 61 | 292 | 41 | 39 | 13 | 100% | 4.4 | 14.0% | 13.4% | 0.7% | 4.5% | 7.92 | 6.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 13 | 12 | 42 | 208 | 40 | 26 | 11 | 92% | 3.2 | 16.9% | 13.1% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 9.43 | 6.53 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 37 | 38 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 13.7% | 13.7% | -0.0% | 3.5% | 6.01 | 5.96 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | KC | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 13.7% | 13.7% | -0.0% | 3.5% | 6.01 | 5.96 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 34 | MLB | KC | — | — | 107 | 482 | 77 | 64 | 20 | — | — | 16.1% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 7.35 | 6.18 | -1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 34 | MLB | KC | — | — | 6 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 13.7% | 13.7% | -0.0% | 3.5% | 6.01 | 5.58 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 127 | 538 | 69 | 77 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 12.7% | 14.3% | -1.5% | 3.8% | 6.18 | 6.30 | -1.3 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 113 | 476 | 56 | 71 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 11.7% | 14.9% | -3.1% | 4.2% | 6.47 | 6.67 | -1.7 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 68 | 76 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 12.7% | 14.3% | -1.5% | 3.8% | 6.18 | 6.30 | -1.3 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 56 | 71 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 11.7% | 14.9% | -3.1% | 4.2% | 6.47 | 6.67 | -1.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 192 | 155 | 899 | 3878 | 642 | 427 | 112 | 81% | 4.7 | 16.6% | 11.0% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 4.87 | 4.69 | +7.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 34 | 200 | 863 | 143 | 95 | 25 | 81% | 4.7 | 16.6% | 11.0% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 4.87 | 4.69 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 229 | 187 | 957 | 4265 | 718 | 460 | 132 | 82% | 4.2 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 4.98 | 4.75 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 39 | 200 | 891 | 150 | 96 | 28 | 82% | 4.2 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 4.98 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Sanchez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.96 | 13.7% | 13.7% | 3.5% | — | 6.47 | 12.3% | -2.3% | 240 | +0.51 | — | — | — |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2025 · 5.65 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.65 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 73 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2028 · 5.42 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.42 | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | .309 | 5.00 | 11.6% | 3.0% | 87 | -0.42 | 5.00 | 235 | 66 |
| Matt Cain R 2024 · 4.83 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.83 | 13.2% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.83 | 294 | 63 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 61 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.97 | 8.9% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.71 | 160 | 59 |
| Sergio Valenzuela R 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.47 | 10.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 244 | 59 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 4.4% | .318 | 4.19 | 12.6% | 5.9% | 104 | -0.84 | 3.79 | 264 | 59 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.05 | 18.9% | 7.2% | 4.8% | .280 | 4.16 | 15.8% | 7.7% | 134 | -0.89 | 3.49 | 393 | 58 |
| James Shields R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.51 | 16.4% | 9.6% | 4.7% | .296 | 4.91 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 336 | -0.60 | 4.36 | 720 | 58 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | .309 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.55 | 4.98 | 211 | 58 |
| Francisco Cordova R 2024 · 4.78 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.78 | 7.1% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.78 | 115 | 57 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2027 · 6.28 FIP | 35 | SP | 6.28 | 10.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 155 | 56 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.91 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | .279 | 5.23 | 13.4% | 7.0% | 84 | +0.32 | 4.91 | 241 | 56 |
| Marco Carrillo R 2024 · 6.57 FIP | 32 | SP | 6.57 | 9.9% | 9.1% | 5.8% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.94 | 194 | 56 |
| Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.87 | 16.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .250 | 4.69 | 14.4% | 8.2% | 59 | -0.18 | 3.72 | 918 | 55 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.71 | 12.5% | 8.7% | 4.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 199 | 55 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2026 · 6.32 FIP | 34 | SP- | 6.32 | 16.6% | 8.9% | 6.4% | .326 | 4.35 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 43 | -1.97 | 4.35 | 138 | 54 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2025 · 5.69 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.69 | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | .285 | 4.91 | 14.4% | 7.8% | 85 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 257 | 54 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.98 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 4.6% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 425 | 53 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.91 | 12.0% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .320 | 6.50 | 11.0% | 1.8% | 66 | +1.59 | 4.23 | 325 | 51 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 127 | 12.8% | 14.2% | 1.47 | 6.20 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Chi Chi González ('22) | 4 | 64 | 13.3% | 9.0% | 1.41 | 5.44 |