Aaron Sanchez — OGILVIE

Aaron Sanchez P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 34 RHP 6'4" / 212 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.85

FIP5.79

K%13.1%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%1.1%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6565

CTRL5050

CMD4550

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p1018.3%

p1015.5%

xwOBA vs

p340.331

CH+1.3

FB-6.2

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	46	14	102	427	68	50	9	30%	2.2	16.1%	11.1%	5.0%	2.4%	3.35	4.44	+0.1
2015	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	46	14	102	427	68	50	9	30%	2.2	15.9%	11.7%	4.2%	2.1%	3.35	4.38	+0.2
2016	24	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	30	30	192	790	161	63	15	100%	6.4	20.4%	8.0%	12.4%	1.9%	3.00	3.43	+3.5
2016	24	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	30	30	192	790	161	63	15	100%	6.4	20.4%	8.0%	12.4%	1.9%	3.00	3.42	+3.5
2017	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	10	44	203	31	25	6	100%	4.4	14.4%	12.0%	2.4%	3.6%	4.91	5.38	-0.2
2017	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	10	44	203	31	25	6	100%	4.4	15.3%	12.3%	3.0%	3.0%	4.91	5.17	-0.1
2018	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	23	116	530	97	66	11	100%	5.0	18.1%	11.8%	6.3%	2.3%	5.04	4.34	+0.8
2018	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	23	23	116	530	97	66	11	100%	5.0	18.3%	12.5%	5.8%	2.1%	5.04	4.37	+0.7
2019	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	27	27	131	605	115	66	20	100%	4.9	19.0%	10.9%	8.1%	3.4%	5.89	4.74	+0.2
2019	27	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	27	27	131	605	115	66	20	100%	4.9	19.0%	10.9%	8.1%	3.3%	5.89	4.84	+0.1
2021	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	14	57	259	39	25	7	88%	3.6	14.8%	10.6%	4.2%	2.7%	4.74	4.69	+0.1
2021	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	14	57	259	39	25	7	88%	3.6	15.1%	9.7%	5.4%	2.7%	4.74	4.64	+0.2
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	23	122	528	84	34	17	82%	4.4	14.9%	6.6%	8.3%	3.6%	5.15	4.67	+0.3
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	23	122	528	84	34	17	82%	4.4	15.9%	6.4%	9.5%	3.2%	5.15	4.37	+0.8
2023	31	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	22	20	89	423	68	63	13	91%	4.1	13.3%	13.4%	-0.1%	3.3%	5.54	5.51	—
2023	31	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	22	20	89	423	68	63	13	91%	4.1	13.3%	13.4%	-0.1%	3.3%	5.54	5.51	—
2023	31	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	22	20	89	423	68	63	13	91%	4.1	16.1%	14.9%	1.2%	3.1%	5.54	5.59	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	14	14	61	292	41	39	13	100%	4.4	11.7%	12.0%	-0.4%	4.9%	7.92	6.35	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	14	14	61	292	41	39	13	100%	4.4	11.7%	12.0%	-0.4%	4.9%	7.92	6.35	—
2024	32	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	14	14	61	292	41	39	13	100%	4.4	14.0%	13.4%	0.7%	4.5%	7.92	6.43	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			150	113	652	2837	514	276	71	75%	4.3	18.1%	9.7%	8.4%	2.5%	4.32	4.21	+5.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	34	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	13	12	42	208	40	26	11	92%	3.2	16.0%	11.3%	4.7%	5.8%	9.43	6.37	—
YTD	34	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	13	12	42	208	40	26	11	92%	3.2	16.0%	11.3%	4.7%	5.8%	9.43	6.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	34	AAA RAW	KC	13	12	42	208	40	26	11	92%	3.2	19.2%	12.5%	6.7%	5.3%	9.43	5.96	—
ROS	34	MLB MLE	KC	2	2	12	50	7	6	2	100%	6.0	13.1%	12.0%	1.1%	3.5%	5.85	5.79	-0.1
ROS	34	MLB CTX	KC	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	13.1%	12.0%	1.1%	3.5%	5.85	5.79	-0.0
2026 TOT	34	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	54	258	47	32	13	—	—	18.0%	12.4%	5.6%	4.9%	8.64	6.24	-1.0
FULL	34	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	13.1%	12.0%	1.1%	3.5%	5.85	5.41	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	127	538	65	67	20	100%	6.1	12.1%	12.5%	-0.4%	3.8%	6.02	6.13	-1.7
2028	36	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	113	476	53	62	20	100%	5.9	11.1%	13.1%	-2.0%	4.2%	6.31	6.50	-1.9
2027	35	MLB CTX	KC	21	21	127	536	65	67	20	100%	6.0	12.1%	12.5%	-0.4%	3.8%	6.02	6.13	-1.7
2028	36	MLB CTX	KC	19	19	113	477	53	63	20	100%	5.9	11.1%	13.1%	-2.0%	4.2%	6.31	6.50	-1.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		190	153	893	3856	632	406	111	81%	4.7	16.4%	10.5%	5.9%	2.9%	4.82	4.64	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	34	200	863	141	91	25	81%	4.7	16.4%	10.5%	5.9%	2.9%	4.82	4.64	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		229	187	957	4265	711	441	132	82%	4.2	16.7%	10.3%	6.3%	3.1%	4.98	4.70	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	39	200	891	148	92	28	82%	4.2	16.7%	10.3%	6.3%	3.1%	4.98	4.70	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Sanchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.79	13.1%	12.0%	3.5%	—	6.30	11.6%	-1.2%	240	+0.51	—	—	—
Jeremy Guthrie R 2015 · 5.44 FIP	36	SP-	5.44	12.7%	6.5%	4.7%	.309	4.85	11.6%	3.0%	87	-0.59	4.85	235	70
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	67
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	66
Matt Cain R 2017 · 4.82 FIP	32	SP	4.82	13.2%	7.6%	3.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	4.82	294	62
Kyle Lohse R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	36	SP-	4.77	16.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.309	4.97	14.8%	8.8%	59	+0.20	4.77	211	62
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	62
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	62
Alfredo Aceves R 2017 · 5.10 FIP	34	SP	5.10	8.9%	8.9%	3.0%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	4.78	160	61
Mike Pelfrey R 2017 · 5.69 FIP	33	SP-	5.69	14.5%	10.6%	4.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	404	61
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.77	264	61
Daniel McCutchen R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	33	SP	4.74	10.8%	5.9%	3.3%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	287	61
Marco Carrillo R 2019 · 6.08 FIP	32	SP	6.08	9.9%	9.1%	4.9%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	5.33	194	60
Alfredo Simon R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	34	SP	4.61	14.3%	8.2%	3.1%	.289	5.55	12.3%	2.7%	74	+0.94	4.61	261	59
Chris Young R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	36	SP-	4.69	16.6%	8.6%	3.5%	.209	6.33	21.1%	11.4%	119	+1.64	4.69	242	58
Hector Ambriz R 2019 · 6.40 FIP	35	SP	6.40	10.4%	7.5%	5.9%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	155	58
Jesse Estrada R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	33	SP	5.39	8.3%	5.6%	4.2%	.285	4.34	14.4%	7.8%	85	-1.05	3.80	257	58
Esmil Rogers R 2019 · 5.64 FIP	33	SP	5.64	12.5%	8.7%	4.5%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	199	57
Logan Ondrusek R 2019 · 6.18 FIP	34	SP-	6.18	16.6%	8.9%	6.1%	.326	4.34	19.2%	11.9%	43	-1.84	4.34	138	56
James Shields R 2016 · 5.56 FIP	34	SP	5.56	16.4%	9.6%	4.8%	.296	4.96	18.6%	9.5%	336	-0.60	4.15	720	54
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	52

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	127	12.2%	12.5%	1.46	6.04
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10