Drew VerHagen projections, WAR, contract

Drew VerHagen P St. Louis Cardinals

Age 35 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 111 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.32

FIP4.41

K%23.3%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%13.9%

ROS IP112

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p8430.6%

p5122.4%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

SL+8.6

CH+2.6

CT-4.9

FB-5.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2014	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	1	1	5	20	4	3	0	100%	5.0	20.0%	15.0%	5.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.31	+0.1
2014	23	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	1	1	5	20	4	3	0	100%	5.0	20.0%	15.0%	5.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.30	+0.1
2015	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	61	248	39	25	2	0%	1.5	14.1%	10.6%	3.6%	0.5%	2.82	3.50	+0.8
2015	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	61	248	39	25	2	0%	1.5	15.7%	10.1%	5.6%	0.8%	2.82	3.48	+0.8
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	20	93	11	6	4	0%	1.0	11.1%	6.7%	4.4%	3.5%	7.32	4.92	-0.1
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	20	93	11	6	4	0%	1.0	11.8%	6.5%	5.4%	4.3%	7.32	5.54	-0.2
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	21	132	575	94	50	17	49%	3.1	14.9%	9.1%	5.8%	3.1%	5.13	4.69	-0.2
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	21	132	575	94	50	17	49%	3.1	16.3%	8.7%	7.7%	3.0%	5.13	4.49	+0.1
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	7	89	360	104	29	6	14%	1.7	27.2%	8.2%	19.0%	1.7%	3.54	2.80	+1.9
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	7	89	360	104	29	6	14%	1.7	28.9%	8.1%	20.8%	1.7%	3.54	2.62	+2.1
2019	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	15	112	494	102	35	14	44%	3.3	19.5%	7.3%	12.3%	3.2%	5.14	4.11	+0.6
2019	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	15	112	494	102	35	14	44%	3.3	20.6%	7.1%	13.6%	2.8%	5.14	3.84	+0.9
2022	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	24	4	29	137	26	16	5	17%	1.2	17.0%	12.3%	4.7%	5.1%	5.22	6.00	-0.5
2022	31	MIX RAW	4 levels	24	4	29	137	26	16	5	17%	1.2	19.0%	11.7%	7.3%	3.6%	5.22	5.18	-0.2
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	62	272	61	24	9	0%	1.0	22.4%	9.0%	13.4%	3.6%	4.06	4.33	+0.2
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	62	272	61	24	9	0%	1.0	22.4%	9.0%	13.4%	3.6%	4.06	4.33	+0.2
2023	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	62	272	61	24	9	0%	1.0	22.4%	8.8%	13.6%	3.3%	4.06	4.18	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			206	8	282	1226	234	107	43	4%	1.4	19.1%	8.7%	10.4%	3.5%	4.98	4.56	-0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	3.1%	4.32	4.41	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	STL	136	0	143	604	134	60	21	0%	1.1	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	3.5%	4.60	4.78	-0.4
2028	37	MLB MLE	STL	119	0	125	527	111	56	21	0%	1.0	21.1%	10.7%	10.5%	3.9%	4.95	5.18	-0.9
2027	36	MLB CTX	STL	124	0	130	549	122	55	19	0%	1.0	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	3.5%	4.60	4.78	-0.3
2028	37	MLB CTX	STL	97	0	102	431	91	46	17	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.7%	10.5%	3.9%	4.95	5.18	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		428	8	514	2208	448	208	79	2%	1.2	20.3%	9.4%	10.8%	3.6%	4.88	4.55	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		166	3	200	859	174	81	31	2%	1.2	20.3%	9.4%	10.8%	3.6%	4.88	4.55	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		274	48	509	2199	414	194	61	18%	1.9	18.8%	8.8%	10.0%	2.8%	4.54	4.15	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	19	200	863	162	76	24	18%	1.9	18.8%	8.8%	10.0%	2.8%	4.54	4.15	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew VerHagen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	23.3%	9.4%	3.1%	—	4.97	21.7%	11.4%	268	+0.56	—	—	—
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	62
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	58
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	56
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	56
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	53
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	53
Juan Sandoval R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	35	SU	3.24	18.2%	10.2%	0.7%	.288	4.40	16.3%	9.1%	116	+1.16	3.24	225	52
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	35	SU	4.33	18.9%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	51
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	50
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	300	49
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	49
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	49
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	49
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	48
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	47
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	46
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	46
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	45
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2019 · 3.72 FIP	35	SU	3.72	26.2%	8.6%	3.2%	.303	5.02	17.5%	4.8%	12	+1.30	3.45	132	44
Seunghwan Oh R 2017 · 3.90 FIP	35	SU	3.90	20.5%	2.3%	4.1%	.299	3.45	26.6%	20.5%	87	-0.45	1.87	226	44

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	79	21.0%	9.7%	1.35	4.75
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Brian Matusz ('16)	2.6	76	19.8%	8.7%	1.34	4.92
Mike Trombley ('02)	4.0	80	19.4%	9.2%	1.29	4.48
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Jay Witasick ('07)	3.7	73	19.6%	11.0%	1.19	4.64