Kyle Hendricks

PosP
B/TR/R
Born1989-12-07
Age (2026)36

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
201525MLBChicago Cubs32321807391674217100%5.622.6%5.7%16.9%2.2%3.953.14+4.8
201525MLBChicago Cubs32321807391674217100%5.622.6%5.7%16.9%2.3%3.953.17+4.7
201626MLBChicago Cubs3130190745170411597%6.122.8%5.5%17.3%2.0%2.132.95+5.4
201626MLBChicago Cubs3130190745170411597%6.122.8%5.5%17.3%2.0%2.132.98+5.4
201727MIX2 levels26261485981284017100%5.721.6%6.8%14.7%2.9%2.923.74+2.9
201727MIX2 levels26261485981284017100%5.721.4%6.7%14.7%2.8%2.923.67+3.0
201828MLBChicago Cubs33331998121614022100%6.019.8%4.9%14.9%2.6%3.443.50+4.4
201828MLBChicago Cubs33331998121614022100%6.019.8%4.9%14.9%2.7%3.443.52+4.4
201929MLBChicago Cubs30301777301503119100%5.920.5%4.2%16.3%2.5%3.463.30+4.4
201929MLBChicago Cubs30301777301503119100%5.920.5%4.2%16.3%2.6%3.463.33+4.3
202030MLBChicago Cubs12128131564710100%6.820.3%2.2%18.1%3.1%2.883.37+1.6
202030MLBChicago Cubs12128131564710100%6.820.3%2.2%18.1%3.2%2.883.38+1.5
202131MLBChicago Cubs32321817851314131100%5.716.7%5.2%11.5%3.9%4.774.47+2.0
202131MLBChicago Cubs32321817851314131100%5.716.7%5.2%11.5%3.9%4.774.56+1.8
202232MLBChicago Cubs161684356662415100%5.318.5%6.7%11.8%4.1%4.804.64+0.4
202232MLBChicago Cubs161684356662415100%5.318.5%6.7%11.8%4.2%4.804.70+0.4
202333MIX2 levels29291576631133315100%5.416.7%5.0%11.7%2.3%4.003.57+3.4
202333MIX2 levels29291576631133315100%5.417.0%5.0%12.1%2.3%4.003.53+3.4
202434MIX3 levels3126140608100462184%4.515.3%7.6%7.8%3.6%5.724.75+1.1
202434MIX3 levels3126140608100462184%4.516.4%7.6%8.9%3.5%5.724.61+1.3
202535MLBLos Angeles Angels31311656951144025100%5.316.4%5.8%10.6%3.7%4.764.49+1.8
202535MLBLos Angeles Angels31311656951144025100%5.316.4%5.8%10.6%3.6%4.764.42+1.9
▸ 2026 Season
202636MLBLAA2222130548763519100%5.913.9%6.5%7.4%3.4%4.725.02+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202737MLBLAA1919113478613418100%6.012.8%7.1%5.7%3.9%5.145.42-0.0
202838MLBLAA161697411483218100%6.111.6%7.8%3.8%4.3%5.575.85-0.6
202939MLBLAA141484354373017100%6.010.5%8.5%2.0%4.8%6.006.28-1.2
202737MLBLAA1919113477613418100%5.912.8%7.1%5.7%3.8%5.105.38+0.0
202838MLBLAA161697410483217100%6.111.6%7.8%3.8%4.2%5.535.81-0.5
202939MLBLAA141484355373017100%6.010.5%8.5%2.0%4.7%5.956.23-1.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career34333719598135147247125798%5.718.1%5.8%12.3%3.2%4.104.04+31.2
/ 200 IP3534200830150482698%5.718.1%5.8%12.3%3.2%4.104.04+3.2
Career30329717037046135638620698%5.619.2%5.5%13.8%2.9%3.853.78+32.3
/ 200 IP3635200828159452498%5.619.2%5.5%13.8%2.9%3.853.78+3.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Kyle Hendricks (OGILVIE) 5.02 13.9%6.5%3.4% 5.81 11.8%4.0%294 +0.79
Aaron Harang R 2027 · 4.54 FIP 37 SP 4.54 14.4%6.4%3.4%.288 4.54 172 53
Dan Haren R 2024 · 4.40 FIP 34 SP 4.40 17.2%4.7%3.9%.251 4.40 187 50
Shaun Marcum R 2023 · 3.94 FIP 33 SP 3.94 17.8%6.0%2.9%.281 3.94 123 49
Jeremy Guthrie R 2026 · 5.42 FIP 36 SP- 5.42 12.7%6.5%4.7%.309 5.00 11.6%3.0%87 -0.42 5.00 235 46
Roberto Hernandez R 2025 · 4.22 FIP 35 SP 4.22 13.8%7.0%2.5%.299 4.22 171 46
Colby Lewis R 2026 · 4.70 FIP 36 SP 4.70 15.5%5.9%3.9%.239 3.91 321 46
James Shields R 2026 · 4.81 FIP 36 SP 4.81 17.7%9.0%3.8%.258 4.36 720 44
Chris Smith R 2026 · 5.11 FIP 36 SP- 5.11 15.6%7.5%4.3%.286 3.93 413 43
Jarrett Grube R 2025 · 4.16 FIP 35 SP 4.16 15.8%8.1%2.5%.296 3.49 393 43
Josh Lindblom R 2025 · 5.22 FIP 35 SP 5.22 20.8%8.8%5.0%.270 3.66 348 43
Yoanner Negrin R 2025 · 4.31 FIP 35 SP 4.31 17.5%8.1%3.0%.280 3.19 485 42
Scott Feldman R 2024 · 4.64 FIP 34 SP 4.64 19.7%7.0%4.2%.292 3.92 297 42
Pablo Ortega R 2028 · 4.41 FIP 38 SP 4.41 8.6%7.3%2.0%.291 4.33 11.5%6.0%236 -0.08 3.92 375 42
Frankie De La Cruz R 2025 · 4.34 FIP 35 SP- 4.34 16.2%8.0%2.9%.322 3.70 240 41
Edgar Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.58 FIP 36 SP 4.58 12.3%5.8%3.3%.331 3.18 450 41
Walter Silva R 2028 · 3.95 FIP 38 SP 3.95 14.8%7.4%2.1%.311 3.96 10.4%3.7%209 +0.01 3.68 428 41
Ervin Santana R 2026 · 5.46 FIP 36 SP 5.46 12.4%8.4%4.3%.309 4.38 18.8%11.2%65 -1.08 3.66 720 41
Kyle Lohse R 2026 · 4.98 FIP 36 SP- 4.98 16.2%6.0%4.5%.309 5.53 14.8%8.8%59 +0.55 4.98 211 40
Ryan Vogelsong R 2028 · 4.46 FIP 38 SP- 4.46 18.1%9.4%3.1%.295 4.67 16.7%6.3%82 +0.21 4.46 217 40
Jonathan Castellanos R 2025 · 5.00 FIP 35 SP 5.00 8.4%9.2%2.6%.314 5.02 11.0%2.0%67 +0.02 3.56 394 39

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION410612.4%7.3%1.555.28
Matt Cain ('17)39115.2%8.2%1.515.58
Jered Weaver ('17)312613.3%5.9%1.835.15
Matt Garza ('17)312215.5%8.5%1.265.10
Chi Chi González ('22)46413.3%9.0%1.415.44
Doug Fister ('18)411015.8%7.5%1.194.56
Homer Bailey ('19)49618.5%7.8%1.345.56