Ryan Carpenter
P
El Paso Chihuahuas
Age 35
LHP
6'5" / 230 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION35 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA5.39
FIP5.51
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%16.1%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%5.9%
IP36
K†4040
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p1090.0
Whiff%
p1016.3%
K%
p1012.7%
xwOBA vs
p100.381
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AA | New Britain Rock Cats | 28 | 28 | 167 | 701 | 132 | 37 | 19 | 15.3% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 4.04 | 3.96 | +2.8 |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 26 | 8 | 69 | 326 | 68 | 24 | 16 | 18.4% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 7.47 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 27 | 25 | 156 | 659 | 161 | 39 | 19 | 21.5% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 4.15 | 3.31 | +3.8 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 22 | 21 | 105 | 475 | 93 | 27 | 17 | 17.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.33 | 4.78 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 23 | 23 | 118 | 531 | 101 | 39 | 23 | 17.3% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.65 | 5.57 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 33 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 14 | 14 | 59 | 281 | 44 | 31 | 19 | 13.8% | 11.6% | 6.4% | 8.85 | 6.94 | -1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | SD | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 24 | 15 | 6 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 5.39 | 5.51 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | SD | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 21 | 14 | 6 | 15.8% | 10.7% | 4.1% | 5.57 | 5.76 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 140 | 119 | 673 | 2973 | 523 | 207 | 113 | 17.6% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 5.50 | 4.59 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 35 | 200 | 884 | 155 | 62 | 34 | 17.6% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 5.50 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Carpenter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.51 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 3.8% | — | 5.76 | 15.8% | 5.1% | 32 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Brian Duensing L 2026 · 5.64 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.64 | 13.3% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .290 | 5.80 | 7.1% | 2.0% | 13 | +0.16 | 2.59 | 198 | 73 |
| Clayton Richard L 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.77 | 10.9% | 9.0% | 4.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 574 | 72 |
| Tomas Solis L 2025 · 5.86 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.86 | 11.3% | 7.9% | 4.9% | .322 | 7.02 | 8.9% | 1.4% | 57 | +1.16 | 4.35 | 327 | 67 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2024 · 6.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 6.22 | 8.7% | 13.0% | 4.0% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 395 | 67 |
| J.P. Howell L 2025 · 5.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.94 | 11.5% | 13.5% | 3.9% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 106 | 67 |
| Josh Outman L 2025 · 6.40 FIP | 34 | SU | 6.40 | 12.9% | 18.5% | 3.7% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 106 | 66 |
| Travis Blackley L 2025 · 7.21 FIP | 34 | SU | 7.21 | 6.1% | 9.7% | 6.2% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 225 | 63 |
| Wade LeBlanc L 2026 · 5.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.99 | 12.6% | 7.8% | 5.4% | .276 | 4.57 | 16.2% | 9.4% | 84 | -1.42 | 3.53 | 609 | 62 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.09 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 4.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 154 | 58 |
| David Huff L 2027 · 6.38 FIP | 36 | SU | 6.38 | 14.5% | 4.5% | 7.2% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 158 | 56 |
| Luke Westphal L 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.42 | 16.1% | 19.2% | 2.3% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 294 | 55 |
| Alfredo Simon R 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 35 | SW | 5.63 | 12.3% | 9.6% | 4.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 261 | 36 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2027 · 5.02 FIP | 36 | SW | 5.02 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.48 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.54 | 4.48 | 156 | 35 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2025 · 6.65 FIP | 34 | SU | 6.65 | 10.4% | 13.0% | 5.1% | .200 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 160 | 35 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2024 · 5.46 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.46 | 14.3% | 10.4% | 4.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 148 | 35 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 5.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.83 | 17.9% | 14.2% | 4.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 170 | 35 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.22 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 269 | 35 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.08 | 11.6% | 8.7% | 3.4% | .346 | 4.11 | 13.6% | 8.1% | 153 | -0.97 | 3.15 | 352 | 34 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2025 · 5.91 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.91 | 14.4% | 15.5% | 3.8% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 166 | 34 |
| Jerome Williams R 2025 · 5.94 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.94 | 11.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.79 | 195 | 34 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.