Joey Danielson

P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 235 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

Scout OFP40ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	ADown East Woo…	7	0	8	3.24	2.74	17.6%	8.8%	—	K 17.6% · BB 8.8% · FIP 2.73
2025	24	MIX2 levels	49	0	56	4.34	3.55	26.4%	10.6%	—	K 20.6% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.29
2026	25	MIX2 levels	46	3	54	3.69	2.86	25.3%	11.1%	—	K 20.1% · BB 12.6% · FIP 3.58
2027PROJ	26	MLBTEX	67	0	70	4.84	4.84	19.7%	12.4%	-0.2
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBTEX	25	0	26	4.81	4.83	20.1%	12.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBTEX	38	0	40	4.83	4.87	20.2%	12.1%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control41Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsCarlos Fisher (age 26) · Armando Rivero (age 27) · David Goforth (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%19.7%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4545

CTRL5040

CMD5050

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	7	0	8	34	6	3	0	0%	1.2	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	0.0%	3.24	2.73	—
2024	23	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	7	0	8	34	6	3	0	0%	1.2	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	0.0%	3.24	2.73	—
2024	23	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	7	0	8	34	6	3	0	0%	1.2	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	0.0%	3.24	2.74	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	56	254	67	27	6	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.9%	8.7%	2.6%	4.34	4.29	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	56	254	67	27	6	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.9%	8.7%	2.6%	4.34	4.29	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	56	254	67	27	6	0%	1.1	26.4%	10.6%	15.7%	2.4%	4.34	3.55	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	3	54	225	57	25	2	7%	1.2	20.1%	12.6%	7.5%	1.1%	3.69	3.58	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	3	54	225	57	25	2	7%	1.2	20.1%	12.6%	7.5%	1.1%	3.69	3.58	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	3	54	225	57	25	2	7%	1.2	25.3%	11.1%	14.2%	0.9%	3.69	2.86	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TEX	67	0	70	296	58	37	8	0%	1.0	19.7%	12.4%	7.3%	2.6%	4.84	4.84	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TEX	66	0	69	291	58	35	8	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.2%	7.9%	2.7%	4.81	4.83	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	TEX	64	0	67	282	57	34	8	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.1%	8.1%	2.9%	4.83	4.87	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	TEX	61	0	64	270	54	33	8	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.2%	7.9%	3.0%	4.91	4.98	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	TEX	25	0	26	110	22	13	3	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.2%	7.9%	2.7%	4.81	4.83	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	TEX	38	0	40	169	34	20	5	0%	1.1	20.2%	12.1%	8.1%	2.9%	4.83	4.87	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	TEX	43	0	45	190	38	23	6	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.2%	7.9%	3.0%	4.91	4.98	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	468	94	57	14	0%	1.0	20.1%	12.2%	8.0%	2.9%	4.86	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	103	25	0%	1.1	20.1%	12.2%	8.0%	2.9%	4.86	4.53	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		102	3	118	513	104	62	9	3%	1.2	20.2%	12.0%	8.2%	1.7%	3.97	3.88	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		173	5	200	869	175	104	15	3%	1.2	20.2%	12.0%	8.2%	1.7%	3.97	3.88	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Danielson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	19.7%	12.4%	2.6%	—	4.89	20.1%	8.0%	200	+0.05	—	—	—
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	90
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	89
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	88
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	88
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	88
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	87
Jason Frasor R 2004 · 3.71 FIP	26	SU	3.71	18.1%	11.0%	1.3%	.288	3.63	22.5%	14.1%	182	-0.08	2.71	647	87
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	86
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	86
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	86
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	85
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	85
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	85
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	85
Héctor Neris R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.9%	10.0%	2.5%	.298	3.03	31.5%	23.7%	221	-0.97	2.03	682	85
Eduard Santos R 2016 · 3.86 FIP	26	SU	3.86	22.2%	14.4%	1.5%	.248	2.04	31.1%	18.7%	16	-1.82	2.04	138	85
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	85
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	84
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	84
Nefi Ogando R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	17.0%	11.6%	1.4%	.266	4.11	14.7%	3.1%	40	+0.24	3.87	103	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	20.0%	12.2%	1.09	4.85
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*