Kyle Roche

P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	37	63	4.43	3.80	20.7%	11.4%	—	K 15.5% · BB 13.3% · FIP 4.67
2026	24	MIX2 levels	47	67	5.00	4.12	19.2%	11.7%	—	K 15.3% · BB 12.4% · FIP 4.82
2027PROJ	25	MLBLAA	67	70	5.70	5.70	14.1%	14.5%	-0.9
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBLAA	29	30	5.52	5.49	15.8%	13.9%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBLAA	41	43	5.44	5.44	16.3%	13.6%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control35Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJeff Soptic (age 25) · Julian Arballo (age 27) · Juan Paniagua (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.70

FIP5.70

K%14.1%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%-0.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	63	290	60	33	5	0%	1.7	15.5%	13.3%	2.1%	2.2%	4.43	4.67	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	63	290	60	33	5	0%	1.7	15.5%	13.3%	2.1%	2.2%	4.43	4.67	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	63	290	60	33	5	0%	1.7	20.7%	11.4%	9.3%	1.7%	4.43	3.80	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	67	307	59	36	6	0%	1.4	15.3%	12.4%	2.9%	2.6%	5.00	4.82	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	67	307	59	36	6	0%	1.4	15.3%	12.4%	2.9%	2.6%	5.00	4.82	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	67	307	59	36	6	0%	1.4	19.2%	11.7%	7.5%	2.0%	5.00	4.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAA	67	0	70	296	42	43	8	0%	1.0	14.1%	14.5%	-0.4%	2.9%	5.70	5.70	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAA	67	0	70	296	47	41	9	0%	1.0	15.8%	13.9%	1.9%	2.9%	5.52	5.49	-0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAA	66	0	69	291	48	40	9	0%	1.0	16.3%	13.6%	2.7%	2.9%	5.44	5.44	-0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAA	64	0	67	282	47	38	9	0%	1.0	16.6%	13.6%	3.0%	3.0%	5.44	5.47	-0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAA	61	0	64	270	45	37	9	0%	1.0	16.5%	13.7%	2.8%	3.2%	5.51	5.57	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAA	29	0	30	127	20	18	4	0%	1.0	15.8%	13.9%	1.9%	2.9%	5.52	5.49	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAA	41	0	43	182	30	25	5	0%	1.0	16.3%	13.6%	2.7%	2.9%	5.44	5.44	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAA	48	0	50	211	35	29	6	0%	1.0	16.6%	13.6%	3.0%	3.0%	5.44	5.47	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAA	50	0	52	220	36	30	7	0%	1.0	16.5%	13.7%	2.8%	3.2%	5.51	5.57	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	0	176	742	121	102	23	0%	1.1	16.4%	13.7%	2.7%	3.0%	5.47	5.12	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	138	116	26	0%	1.1	16.4%	13.7%	2.7%	3.0%	5.47	5.12	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		84	0	130	597	92	77	14	0%	1.5	15.4%	12.9%	2.5%	2.4%	4.72	4.75	-2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	0	200	921	142	118	22	0%	1.5	15.4%	12.9%	2.5%	2.4%	4.72	4.75	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Roche (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.70	14.1%	14.5%	2.9%	—	5.47	16.2%	2.5%	206	-0.23	—	—	—
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	88
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	86
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	86
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	85
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	85
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	85
José A. Váldez R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	25	SU	4.55	15.3%	15.3%	1.5%	.279	4.32	22.3%	9.9%	167	-0.23	4.02	328	85
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	85
Rafael Dolis R 2012 · 5.19 FIP	24	SU	5.19	13.9%	12.7%	3.0%	.287	4.02	15.8%	1.5%	66	-1.17	2.80	200	85
Justin Camp R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	140	84
Daniel Webb R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	15.7%	13.4%	2.0%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	126	84
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	84
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	83
Scott Griggs R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	25	SU	5.11	11.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.278	4.19	19.7%	8.0%	112	-0.92	3.06	176	83
Ian Villers R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	13.2%	11.9%	1.9%	.311	4.23	15.6%	5.2%	59	-0.32	4.23	107	83
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	83
Michael Mertz R 2018 · 5.18 FIP	24	SU	5.18	16.1%	13.9%	3.0%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	133	83
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	13.2%	13.8%	1.5%	.330	5.30	16.5%	-2.2%	23	+0.76	4.54	132	83
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	82
Owen Holt R 2024 · 4.52 FIP	25	SU	4.52	15.1%	12.1%	2.1%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	145	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	15.8%	13.9%	1.15	5.52
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*