Mason Burns

P Springfield Cardinals

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX3 levels	40	58	3.39	3.05	32.1%	12.2%	—	K 24.4% · BB 14.2% · FIP 4.13
2026	24	AASTL	16	22	2.08	3.61	26.7%	12.2%	—	K 21.6% · BB 13.4% · FIP 4.44
2027PROJ	25	MLBSTL	19	20	4.79	4.79	22.9%	13.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBSTL	22	23	4.73	4.72	23.1%	12.6%	-0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSTL	31	33	4.72	4.73	23.1%	12.4%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsMichael Wuertz (age 25) · Brad Boxberger (age 25) · Brandon Cunniff (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%22.9%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	58	246	79	30	5	0%	1.5	24.4%	14.2%	10.3%	2.4%	3.39	4.13	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	58	246	79	30	5	0%	1.5	24.4%	14.2%	10.3%	2.4%	3.39	4.13	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	58	246	79	30	5	0%	1.5	32.1%	12.2%	19.9%	2.0%	3.39	3.05	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	16	0	22	90	24	11	2	0%	1.4	21.6%	13.4%	8.2%	2.7%	2.08	4.44	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	16	0	22	90	24	11	2	0%	1.4	21.6%	13.4%	8.2%	2.7%	2.08	4.44	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	16	0	22	90	24	11	2	0%	1.4	26.7%	12.2%	14.4%	2.2%	2.08	3.61	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	19	0	20	84	19	11	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	13.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.79	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	50	0	52	222	51	28	6	0%	1.1	23.1%	12.6%	10.6%	2.9%	4.73	4.72	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	49	0	52	218	50	27	6	0%	1.1	23.1%	12.4%	10.7%	3.0%	4.72	4.73	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	22	0	23	97	22	12	3	0%	1.0	23.1%	12.6%	10.6%	2.9%	4.73	4.72	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	31	0	33	139	32	17	4	0%	1.1	23.1%	12.4%	10.7%	3.0%	4.72	4.73	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	56	236	54	29	7	0%	1.1	23.1%	12.5%	10.7%	3.0%	4.72	4.35	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	104	25	0%	1.1	23.1%	12.5%	10.7%	3.0%	4.72	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		56	0	80	336	80	47	8	0%	1.4	23.7%	14.0%	9.7%	2.4%	3.04	4.21	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	0	200	840	199	117	21	0%	1.4	23.7%	14.0%	9.7%	2.4%	3.04	4.21	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Burns (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	22.9%	13.0%	2.9%	—	4.72	23.1%	10.6%	104	-0.07	—	—	—
Michael Wuertz R 2004 · 4.46 FIP	25	SU	4.46	24.2%	12.9%	3.2%	.243	3.39	26.1%	16.6%	189	-1.07	2.27	414	89
Brad Boxberger R 2013 · 4.40 FIP	25	SU	4.40	25.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.296	3.54	32.3%	22.2%	152	-0.86	2.63	478	89
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	88
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	88
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	88
Shawn Tolleson R 2012 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	24.4%	11.9%	2.4%	.265	3.47	24.4%	18.5%	144	-0.39	3.05	218	87
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	87
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	86
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	86
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	85
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	85
Dan Kolb R 2001 · 4.49 FIP	26	SU	4.49	21.4%	12.9%	2.9%	.295	3.61	14.3%	5.5%	131	-0.88	3.00	283	85
Tyler Mitzel R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	20.8%	12.0%	2.1%	.323	4.14	23.4%	17.9%	58	+0.11	4.03	142	85
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	84
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	84
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	84
Luis Ramirez R 2016 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	24.0%	12.6%	1.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	104	84
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	84
Manny Acosta R 2007 · 4.05 FIP	26	SU	4.05	23.7%	14.0%	2.1%	.196	4.23	19.0%	9.1%	130	+0.18	3.08	350	84
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	41	23.1%	12.6%	1.14	4.74
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16