A.J. Causey

P Midland RockHounds

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #683Pre-ArbFA 2033

ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	48	73	1.72	1.75	26.5%	6.0%	—	K 20.8% · BB 6.8% · FIP 2.20
2026	23	MIX2 levels	45	50	5.04	3.30	23.3%	11.2%	—	K 19.2% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.73
2027PROJ	24	MLBOAK	86	90	4.28	4.28	19.2%	8.6%	0.3
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBOAK	38	40	4.15	4.09	20.5%	8.1%	0.2
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBOAK	58	61	4.08	4.04	21.3%	8.0%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$1M2031Arb-2$1M2032Ext$1.0M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Command60FB velo30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsKyle McClellan (age 24) · Mayckol Guaipe (age 24) · Nelson Gonzalez (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 98

ERA4.28

FIP4.28

K%19.2%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%10.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CMD5560

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	73	283	75	17	0	0%	1.5	20.8%	6.8%	14.1%	0.0%	1.72	2.20	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	73	283	75	17	0	0%	1.5	20.8%	6.8%	14.1%	0.0%	1.72	2.20	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	73	283	75	17	0	0%	1.5	26.5%	6.0%	20.5%	0.0%	1.72	1.75	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	50	223	52	25	3	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.2%	8.0%	1.5%	5.04	3.73	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	50	223	52	25	3	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.2%	8.0%	1.5%	5.04	3.73	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	50	223	52	25	3	0%	1.1	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	1.3%	5.04	3.30	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	OAK	86	0	90	380	73	33	9	0%	1.0	19.2%	8.6%	10.6%	2.4%	4.28	4.28	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	87	0	91	385	79	31	9	0%	1.0	20.5%	8.1%	12.5%	2.5%	4.18	4.12	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	87	0	91	385	82	31	10	0%	1.0	21.3%	8.0%	13.3%	2.5%	4.11	4.07	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	85	0	90	379	81	31	10	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.1%	13.3%	2.6%	4.11	4.11	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	83	0	87	367	78	30	10	0%	1.0	21.2%	8.2%	13.1%	2.7%	4.17	4.20	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	79	0	83	351	74	30	10	0%	1.1	21.0%	8.4%	12.6%	2.8%	4.27	4.33	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	74	0	78	330	75	26	10	0%	1.1	22.7%	7.9%	14.7%	3.0%	4.25	4.24	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	38	0	40	169	35	14	4	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.1%	12.5%	2.4%	4.15	4.09	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	58	0	61	258	55	21	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.0%	13.3%	2.4%	4.08	4.04	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	67	0	70	296	63	24	7	0%	1.0	21.4%	8.1%	13.3%	2.5%	4.07	4.07	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	70	0	73	308	65	25	8	0%	1.0	21.2%	8.2%	13.1%	2.6%	4.13	4.16	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	70	0	73	308	65	26	9	0%	1.0	21.0%	8.4%	12.6%	2.8%	4.23	4.29	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	67	0	70	296	67	23	9	0%	1.0	22.7%	7.9%	14.7%	3.0%	4.21	4.20	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		368	0	387	1634	350	133	43	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.1%	13.3%	2.6%	4.15	3.77	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	69	22	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.1%	13.3%	2.6%	4.15	3.77	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		93	0	123	506	102	44	3	0%	1.3	20.1%	8.7%	11.4%	0.7%	3.06	2.87	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	0	200	821	165	72	6	0%	1.3	20.1%	8.7%	11.4%	0.7%	3.06	2.87	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
A.J. Causey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	19.2%	8.6%	2.4%	—	4.10	21.1%	13.0%	272	-0.18	—	—	—
Kyle McClellan R 2008 · 3.68 FIP	24	SU	3.68	18.0%	7.3%	2.1%	.304	4.41	15.6%	8.0%	284	+0.73	3.68	378	93
Mayckol Guaipe R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	24	SU	3.97	17.0%	7.1%	2.6%	.330	2.49	21.2%	16.0%	33	-1.48	1.88	136	90
Nelson Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	19.6%	7.7%	1.8%	.293	4.98	17.7%	7.8%	115	+1.56	3.42	258	89
Ramon E Ramirez R 2006 · 3.32 FIP	24	SU	3.32	21.4%	8.4%	1.8%	.272	3.33	20.4%	11.9%	159	+0.01	2.37	568	89
Bryan Pope R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.332	5.20	12.7%	-0.3%	22	+1.24	3.96	148	87
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	87
James McDonald R 2009 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.3%	10.4%	2.1%	.283	4.16	20.4%	11.3%	414	+0.20	2.99	506	87
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	87
Matt Pierpont R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	17.8%	7.1%	3.1%	.295	3.25	21.7%	13.8%	190	-0.96	2.76	280	87
Stephen Villines R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	16.8%	8.5%	2.2%	.280	3.15	20.6%	14.7%	40	-0.81	2.14	156	87
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	86
Matt Carasiti R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	24	SU	3.85	17.8%	9.8%	1.8%	.309	3.26	24.8%	15.5%	104	-0.59	2.80	312	86
Alex Phillips R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	24	SU	3.26	22.0%	8.0%	1.8%	.263	4.62	23.2%	14.6%	72	+1.36	3.26	139	86
Alex Hermeling R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	16.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	127	86
Landon Beck R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	24	SU	3.91	18.6%	8.6%	2.4%	.309	4.21	17.4%	8.7%	63	+0.30	3.53	186	86
Bobby Parnell R 2009 · 4.00 FIP	24	SU	4.00	17.9%	10.7%	1.9%	.324	2.75	22.4%	15.8%	163	-1.25	2.08	403	86
Colton Murray R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	25	SU	3.34	20.5%	10.4%	1.2%	.251	4.08	21.4%	12.3%	109	+0.74	3.34	187	85
Ryan Pressly R 2013 · 3.70 FIP	24	SU	3.70	15.6%	8.3%	1.6%	.281	3.47	18.1%	11.4%	131	-0.23	1.88	691	85
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	85
Juan Ramon Noriega R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	17.7%	7.4%	1.9%	.303	4.09	16.6%	9.3%	92	+0.48	3.44	198	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	21.0%	8.2%	1.02	4.19
Johnny Welch ('26-'36, 5 WAR*)	3.2	108	20.7%*	8.3%*	1.01*	4.34*
Tom Sturdivant ('55-'64, 10 WAR*)	5.7	114	21.9%*	8.7%*	1.08*	4.16*
Don Lee ('57-'66, 6 WAR*)	4.1	104	18.4%*	7.5%*	1.05*	4.06*
Jimmy Nelson ('21)	3.3	110	21.8%	8.9%	0.94	4.12
Roenis Elías ('22)	2.0	99	19.6%	9.0%	1.02	3.96
Garrett Richards ('22)	4.9	98	20.4%	8.7%	0.85	3.87