Peyton Stumbo

P Altoona Curve

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	APIT	37	3	68	4.92	3.93	25.7%	8.8%	—	K 19.0% · BB 10.4% · FIP 5.11
2025	23	MIX2 levels	25	21	90	4.30	3.21	21.2%	7.1%	—	K 16.0% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.10
2026	24	AAPIT	27	26	121	6.23	4.87	18.9%	8.4%	—	K 15.3% · BB 9.2% · FIP 5.55
2027PROJ	25	MLBPIT	13	13	75	5.43	5.43	13.9%	9.0%	-0.4
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBPIT	8	8	48	5.27	5.24	15.5%	8.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBPIT	11	11	68	5.20	5.20	16.0%	8.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control60Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsHunter Adkins (age 25) · Bryce Morrow (age 27) · Alfonso Sanchez (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.43

FIP5.43

K%13.9%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP75

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL6060

CMD4545

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	5	0	6	23	3	0	0	0%	1.3	13.0%	0.0%	13.0%	0.0%	1.42	2.00	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	5	0	6	23	3	0	0	0%	1.3	13.0%	0.0%	13.0%	0.0%	1.42	2.15	—
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	37	3	68	296	76	26	10	8%	1.8	19.0%	10.4%	8.6%	4.2%	4.92	5.11	—
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	37	3	68	296	76	26	10	8%	1.8	19.0%	10.4%	8.6%	4.2%	4.92	5.11	—
2024	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	37	3	68	296	76	26	10	8%	1.8	25.7%	8.8%	16.9%	3.4%	4.92	3.93	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	90	382	81	27	7	84%	3.6	16.0%	8.2%	7.8%	2.4%	4.30	4.10	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	90	382	81	27	7	84%	3.6	16.0%	8.2%	7.8%	2.4%	4.30	4.10	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	90	382	81	27	7	84%	3.6	21.2%	7.1%	14.1%	1.8%	4.30	3.21	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	27	26	121	562	106	47	22	96%	4.5	15.3%	9.2%	6.1%	4.7%	6.23	5.55	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	27	26	121	562	106	47	22	96%	4.5	15.3%	9.2%	6.1%	4.7%	6.23	5.55	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	27	26	121	562	106	47	22	96%	4.5	18.9%	8.4%	10.5%	3.9%	6.23	4.87	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	PIT	13	13	75	317	44	28	11	100%	5.8	13.9%	9.0%	5.0%	3.6%	5.43	5.43	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	109	461	72	41	16	100%	6.1	15.5%	8.8%	6.7%	3.6%	5.27	5.24	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	108	454	73	40	16	100%	6.0	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	3.6%	5.20	5.20	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	104	441	71	39	16	100%	6.1	16.2%	8.9%	7.3%	3.6%	5.20	5.24	-0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	100	421	68	38	16	100%	5.9	16.1%	9.1%	7.0%	3.8%	5.28	5.34	-0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	94	396	62	37	16	100%	5.9	15.7%	9.4%	6.3%	4.0%	5.42	5.52	-0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	8	8	48	203	31	18	7	100%	6.0	15.5%	8.8%	6.7%	3.6%	5.27	5.24	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	68	287	46	25	10	100%	6.2	16.0%	8.8%	7.2%	3.6%	5.20	5.20	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	79	334	54	30	12	100%	6.1	16.2%	8.9%	7.3%	3.6%	5.20	5.24	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	81	342	55	31	13	100%	5.8	16.1%	9.1%	7.0%	3.8%	5.28	5.34	-0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	80	338	53	32	13	100%	6.2	15.7%	9.4%	6.3%	4.0%	5.42	5.52	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	59	357	1506	240	136	56	100%	6.0	15.9%	9.0%	6.9%	3.7%	5.28	4.94	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	135	76	31	100%	6.0	15.9%	9.0%	6.9%	3.7%	5.28	4.94	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		94	50	285	1263	206	114	48	53%	3.0	16.3%	9.0%	7.3%	3.8%	5.20	4.95	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	35	200	885	144	80	34	53%	3.0	16.3%	9.0%	7.3%	3.8%	5.20	4.95	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peyton Stumbo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.43	13.9%	9.0%	3.6%	—	5.23	15.9%	7.1%	321	-0.20	—	—	—
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	83
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	83
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	82
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	82
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	82
Denny Bautista R 2006 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	13.9%	10.8%	2.6%	.298	4.58	17.5%	3.3%	74	-0.13	3.38	238	81
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	81
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	81
D.J. Houlton R 2005 · 4.85 FIP	25	SP-	4.85	15.6%	8.5%	3.6%	.297	4.74	18.6%	12.4%	28	-0.11	4.74	157	80
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	80
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	80
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	80
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	79
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	79
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	79
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	78
Ryan Long R 2024 · 5.29 FIP	24	SP-	5.29	15.9%	9.3%	4.3%	.239	4.87	18.7%	8.7%	159	-0.42	4.20	433	78
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	78
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	78
Adam Panayotovich R 2017 · 5.45 FIP	25	SP-	5.45	9.6%	9.0%	3.7%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	121	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	98	15.6%	9.0%	1.43	5.29
Matt Kinney ('05)	1.9	97	16.8%	9.9%	1.39	5.29
Euel Moore ('34-'36, 0 WAR*)	1.1	75	16.0%*	8.8%*	1.39*	5.07*
Brandon Backe ('09)	2.6	88	15.4%	10.2%	1.49	5.23
Hector Noesí ('19)	2.1	70	16.4%	8.7%	1.53	5.51
Dick Lange ('72-'75, -3 WAR*)	1.4	92	16.6%*	9.6%*	1.42*	5.49*
Pete Burnside ('55-'63, -2 WAR*)	2.8	95	17.6%*	8.6%*	1.33*	5.17*