Justin Sinibaldi

P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 25 LHP 6'5" / 220 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	ACWS	22	22	91	3.76	3.35	21.4%	9.4%	—	K 15.9% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.51
2026	24	A+CWS	25	23	115	4.84	4.37	18.8%	9.3%	—	K 14.5% · BB 10.7% · FIP 5.27
2027PROJ	25	MLBCWS	13	13	75	5.67	5.67	13.4%	12.5%	-0.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCWS	8	8	45	5.48	5.45	15.1%	12.0%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCWS	11	11	64	5.39	5.39	15.6%	11.7%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsMiguel Cienfuegos (age 26) · Brandon Claussen (age 25) · Pedro Hernandez (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125133vR 141

ERA5.67

FIP5.67

K%13.4%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%0.9%

Proj IP75

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	3	3	9	39	7	3	0	100%	3.0	17.9%	7.7%	10.3%	0.0%	5.00	2.56	—
2024	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	3	3	9	39	7	3	0	100%	3.0	17.9%	7.7%	10.3%	0.0%	5.00	2.56	—
2024	22	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	3	3	9	39	7	3	0	100%	3.0	17.9%	7.7%	10.3%	0.0%	5.00	2.54	—
2025	23	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	22	22	91	373	80	35	6	100%	4.1	15.9%	11.1%	4.8%	2.5%	3.76	4.51	—
2025	23	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	22	22	91	373	80	35	6	100%	4.1	15.9%	11.1%	4.8%	2.5%	3.76	4.51	—
2025	23	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	22	22	91	373	80	35	6	100%	4.1	21.4%	9.4%	12.1%	1.6%	3.76	3.35	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	25	23	115	505	95	47	15	92%	4.6	14.5%	10.7%	3.8%	3.7%	4.84	5.27	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	25	23	115	505	95	47	15	92%	4.6	14.5%	10.7%	3.8%	3.7%	4.84	5.27	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	25	23	115	505	95	47	15	92%	4.6	18.8%	9.3%	9.5%	3.0%	4.84	4.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CWS	13	13	75	317	42	40	10	100%	5.8	13.4%	12.5%	0.9%	3.2%	5.67	5.67	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	104	438	66	52	14	100%	6.1	15.1%	12.0%	3.1%	3.1%	5.48	5.45	-0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	102	432	67	51	14	100%	6.0	15.6%	11.7%	3.9%	3.2%	5.39	5.39	-0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	99	418	66	49	14	100%	5.8	15.8%	11.7%	4.1%	3.3%	5.39	5.42	-0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	95	399	63	47	14	100%	5.9	15.7%	11.8%	3.9%	3.4%	5.46	5.52	-0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	CWS	15	15	89	375	58	45	14	100%	5.9	15.4%	12.1%	3.3%	3.6%	5.60	5.70	-0.8
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	45	190	29	23	6	100%	5.6	15.1%	12.0%	3.1%	3.1%	5.48	5.45	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	64	270	42	32	9	100%	5.8	15.6%	11.7%	3.9%	3.2%	5.39	5.39	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	CWS	12	12	75	317	50	37	10	100%	6.2	15.8%	11.7%	4.1%	3.3%	5.39	5.42	-0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	77	325	51	38	11	100%	5.9	15.7%	11.8%	3.9%	3.4%	5.46	5.52	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	76	321	49	39	12	100%	5.8	15.4%	12.1%	3.3%	3.6%	5.60	5.70	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	56	337	1421	221	168	48	100%	6.0	15.6%	11.8%	3.7%	3.4%	5.47	5.13	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	131	100	29	100%	6.0	15.6%	11.8%	3.7%	3.4%	5.47	5.13	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		50	48	215	917	139	98	28	96%	4.3	15.2%	10.7%	4.5%	3.0%	4.39	4.85	-3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	45	200	852	129	91	26	96%	4.3	15.2%	10.7%	4.5%	3.0%	4.39	4.85	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Sinibaldi (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.67	13.4%	12.5%	3.2%	—	5.42	15.5%	3.7%	305	-0.25	—	—	—
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	89
Brandon Claussen L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.314	4.56	16.5%	9.2%	244	-0.24	4.41	310	87
Pedro Hernandez L 2013 · 5.31 FIP	24	SP	5.31	11.0%	8.4%	3.8%	.347	4.09	13.1%	4.2%	68	-1.22	4.09	124	80
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	80
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	79
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.73	19.6%	3.8%	13	+1.04	3.85	176	79
Scott Downs L 2000 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP	4.63	14.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	748	78
Amilcar Gaxiola L 2016 · 4.78 FIP	25	SP	4.78	11.0%	8.5%	2.8%	.336	4.87	11.7%	1.5%	176	+0.09	4.58	321	78
J.C. Romero L 2001 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP-	4.89	13.6%	8.0%	3.5%	.285	3.46	20.7%	10.3%	218	-1.43	2.88	652	77
Tim Berry L 2016 · 5.66 FIP	25	SP-	5.66	11.3%	13.5%	3.3%	.380	4.04	20.0%	1.8%	44	-1.62	4.04	196	76
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	75
John Koronka L 2005 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP-	4.77	13.2%	10.5%	2.6%	.304	4.81	10.5%	2.2%	135	+0.04	3.99	151	75
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	74
Lucas Gordon L 2024 · 5.61 FIP	22	SP	5.61	16.3%	15.7%	3.5%	.212	5.08	20.0%	8.1%	225	-0.53	4.44	338	74
Lance Davis L 2001 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	11.5%	7.4%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	106	74
Dan Serafini L 2000 · 5.27 FIP	26	SP-	5.27	11.7%	9.0%	3.7%	.300	5.44	9.2%	0.0%	30	+0.17	3.71	259	73
Grant Watson L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	73
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	73
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	73
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	94	15.2%	11.9%	1.28	5.49
Mac Suzuki ('02)	2.3	93	15.4%	12.5%	1.29	5.72
Bobby Jones ('04)	1.6	81	15.1%	12.9%	1.25	5.77
Jesse Winters ('19-'23, -2 WAR*)	2.0	81	13.7%*	11.0%*	1.29*	5.12*
Charlie Bishop ('52-'55, -1 WAR*)	1.5	98	16.9%*	11.2%*	1.30*	5.49*
Galen Cisco ('61-'69, -2 WAR*)	3.3	94	14.7%*	10.4%*	1.22*	5.30*
Victor Santos ('07)	3.0	86	15.6%	10.2%	1.29	5.21