Joan Gutierrez — OGILVIE

Joan GutierrezSS DSL Brewers Blue

Age 20 L/R 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK HR +10%K +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 120 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .286 / .276

PA10

HR0

K%27

BB%10

ISO78

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 43 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT43

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE65

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Brewers 1	—	156	126	20	6	2	0	27	44	2	7	3	159	314	238	552	79	244	28	17	270	69	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2024	18	ROK	DSL Brewers 1	—	134	111	17	3	2	0	17	30	4	8	2	153	288	216	504	63	205	22	13	244	52	-8	+1	—	—	+3	-0.4
2025	19	ROK	DSL Brewers Blue	—	144	106	24	4	0	0	33	25	5	12	4	226	431	264	695	38	296	17	23	347	121	+4	+1	—	—	+3	0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	—	156	137	13	4	1	0	17	64	2	7	3	95	205	139	344	44	181	41	11	171	2	-18	+0	—	—	+3	-1.5
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	—	134	117	12	2	1	0	11	44	4	8	2	103	205	137	341	34	150	33	8	161	-5	-17	+1	—	—	+3	-1.3
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	—	144	118	20	3	0	0	21	34	5	12	4	169	319	195	514	25	233	24	15	247	53	-8	+1	—	—	+3	-0.4
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	—	156	137	13	4	1	0	17	64	2	7	3	95	205	139	344	44	178	41	11	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	—	156	126	20	6	2	0	27	44	2	7	3	159	314	238	552	79	244	28	17	270	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	—	134	117	12	2	1	0	11	44	4	8	2	103	205	137	341	34	160	33	8	161	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	—	134	111	17	3	2	0	17	30	4	8	2	153	288	216	504	63	205	22	13	244	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	—	144	118	20	3	0	0	21	34	5	12	4	169	319	195	514	25	238	24	15	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Blue	—	144	106	24	4	0	0	33	25	5	12	4	226	431	264	695	38	296	17	23	347	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	—	156	136	13	4	1	0	17	64	2	7	3	96	205	140	345	44	181	41	11	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	—	134	118	12	2	1	0	11	44	4	8	2	102	205	136	340	34	150	33	8	161	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	—	144	117	20	3	0	0	21	34	5	12	4	171	319	197	516	26	233	24	15	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	—	156	136	13	4	1	0	17	64	2	7	3	96	205	140	345	44	181	41	11	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	—	134	118	12	2	1	0	11	44	4	8	2	102	205	136	340	34	150	33	8	161	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	—	144	117	20	3	0	0	21	34	5	12	4	171	319	197	516	26	233	24	15	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	20	MLB MLE	MIL	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		277	30	10	263	64	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIL	34%	204	179	37	7	1	2	20	53	3	5	1	207	297	291	588	84	280	26	10	275	72	-7	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	48%	329	291	63	12	2	5	31	85	4	8	2	216	301	323	624	107	282	26	9	283	78	-9	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	54%	414	366	80	15	3	7	40	105	5	10	3	219	304	333	637	115	283	25	10	289	81	-9	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	55%	471	417	91	17	3	8	45	119	6	11	3	218	303	331	634	113	284	25	10	292	84	-9	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	56%	504	444	97	18	3	9	48	127	7	12	3	218	305	333	638	115	284	25	10	293	84	-9	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	56%	522	460	102	19	3	10	50	131	7	13	3	222	308	341	649	120	284	25	10	294	85	-9	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.9
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	55%	529	465	103	19	3	10	52	133	7	13	3	222	309	340	649	118	284	25	10	294	85	-9	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.9
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIL	55%	529	465	102	19	3	10	52	134	7	13	3	219	307	338	645	118	284	25	10	293	84	-10	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.8
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIL	53%	522	458	99	18	3	9	52	133	7	12	3	216	306	328	633	111	283	25	10	291	83	-10	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIL	57%	513	450	98	18	3	9	51	132	7	11	3	218	307	331	638	113	282	26	10	289	82	-11	+1	-2	+5	+11	0.4
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIL	60%	500	441	93	17	3	8	49	131	6	11	3	211	298	317	616	107	280	26	10	285	79	-13	+1	-3	+5	+11	0.2
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIL	61%	483	426	90	16	3	8	48	128	6	10	3	211	300	319	619	108	277	27	10	280	75	-14	+1	-4	+5	+10	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIL	34%	70	62	12	2	0	1	7	18	1	2	0	194	286	274	560	81	278	26	10	265	72	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	48%	159	141	30	6	1	2	15	41	2	4	1	213	297	312	610	99	280	26	9	274	78	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	54%	225	198	43	8	1	4	22	57	3	5	1	217	305	328	633	111	281	25	10	279	81	-5	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	55%	261	231	51	9	2	5	25	66	3	6	2	221	305	342	647	121	282	25	10	282	84	-5	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	56%	282	249	55	10	2	5	27	71	4	7	2	221	307	337	644	116	282	25	10	284	84	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	56%	294	260	57	10	2	6	28	74	4	7	2	219	305	342	647	123	282	25	10	284	85	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	55%	293	258	57	10	2	6	29	74	4	7	2	221	309	345	654	124	282	25	10	285	85	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIL	55%	290	255	56	10	2	6	29	74	4	7	2	220	309	345	654	125	282	26	10	284	84	-5	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIL	53%	279	245	54	10	2	5	28	71	4	6	2	220	310	339	649	118	281	25	10	282	83	-6	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIL	57%	293	258	55	10	2	5	29	76	4	7	2	213	302	326	628	112	280	26	10	280	82	-6	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIL	60%	298	263	56	10	2	5	29	78	4	6	2	213	301	323	624	110	278	26	10	276	79	-7	+0	-2	+3	+6	0.1
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIL	61%	296	261	55	10	2	5	29	78	4	6	2	211	299	322	621	111	275	26	10	271	75	-9	+0	-2	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3040	2681	581	105	20	55	297	778	41	70	20	217	304	332	637	116	283	26	10	280	77	-66	+6	-6	+33	+66	3.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	124	22	4	12	64	166	9	15	4	216	305	332	637	115	282	26	10	280	77	-14	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	5964	5243	1101	204	35	95	588	1556	83	156	42	210	300	317	616	107	278	26	10	282	77	-120	+13	-10	+59	+120	6.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	571	120	22	4	10	64	170	9	17	5	210	299	315	614	105	279	26	10	282	77	-14	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.8	3,159	54	73	218	301	330	+34	+21	5.6	4.9
/162	664	11	15	+7.1	+4.4	1.2	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joan Gutierrez (OGILVIE)	20	38→43	28→33	55→60	65	199/286/276	77	277	1	3	27%	10%	64	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	40→49	38→45	59→55	46	192/267/282	90	275	4	17	30%	8%	57	-1.8	216/291/301	85	288	6	17	25%	9%	70	-0.8	228/317/324	96	297	8	17	24%	11%	83	+0.0
✕Wilbis Santiago 2016 · A	20	45	35→40	55→30	46	209/266/267	58	257	2	10	19%	6%	53	-2.1	224/267/299	75	261	3	8	15%	4%	60	-1.6	247/273/328	81	279	3	3	12%	2%	67	-0.4
✕Glenn Santiago 2021 · A	20	43	37→40	55→45	46	200/274/277	78	262	3	13	23%	7%	59	-1.6	205/269/296	91	280	7	9	28%	7%	61	-1.5	182/247/261	79	270	7	8	33%	7%	43	-1.1
✕Eliezer Álvarez 2015 · A	20	43→53	40→45	54→55	44	206/262/313	106	260	6	11	22%	6%	61	-1.5	245/294/353	108	322	5	15	24%	6%	82	+0.0	254/307/365	110	342	6	19	26%	6%	89	+0.3
✕Roberto Caro 2014 · A	20	46→41	35→40	56→60	48	210/285/283	73	287	1	16	25%	8%	63	-1.3	206/280/293	87	291	3	18	27%	8%	64	-1.3	215/287/293	78	329	2	26	32%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Freizer Pedron 2007 · A	20	44	37→40	49→55	42	207/263/283	75	275	4	12	25%	6%	55	-1.9	229/295/302	73	307	3	16	24%	7%	72	-0.7	262/328/337	75	341	2	29	22%	6%	88	+0.2
✕Luis Valenzuela 2014 · A	20	41	37→45	53→45	46	193/250/268	75	240	4	9	21%	7%	47	-2.6	229/258/316	87	295	5	8	23%	4%	60	-1.6	262/284/362	100	318	5	7	19%	2%	77	-0.1
✕Junior Valera 2013 · A	20	42	36→40	51→60	45	196/266/265	69	275	2	10	28%	8%	53	-2.1	226/289/310	84	293	3	18	22%	8%	71	-0.8	245/308/338	94	307	3	28	20%	8%	80	-0.0
✕Jose Reyes 2018 · A	19	45	36→45	55	44	211/255/282	71	259	2	13	19%	5%	51	-2.2	226/279/325	99	265	7	15	17%	6%	70	-0.8	248/303/371	123	270	10	25	12%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Adrian Abreu 2011 · A	20	43	37→40	52→55	44	204/258/281	77	261	3	10	22%	6%	53	-2.1	205/283/290	85	253	7	15	20%	9%	65	-1.2	194/284/274	80	231	8	20	19%	10%	61	-0.5
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2019 · A	20	46→52	36→45	50→60	46	216/275/284	68	263	2	13	18%	6%	60	-1.6	230/290/316	86	319	3	20	27%	7%	73	-0.6	247/309/346	99	324	6	33	24%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Jason Denham 2007 · A	21	40→45	35→40	53→55	44	190/254/251	61	280	3	10	31%	8%	45	-2.7	218/277/298	80	290	8	18	26%	7%	64	-1.3	217/279/292	74	284	8	21	25%	7%	62	-0.9
✕Anthony Seigler 2019 · A	20	45→39	38→45	48→55	50	214/284/293	79	268	6	5	22%	8%	65	-1.2	195/274/272	77	286	5	5	30%	9%	58	-1.7	219/309/345	126	268	10	25	21%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Alberto Rodriguez 2021 · A	20	43→52	39→45	52→50	43	208/260/292	85	279	6	14	27%	6%	56	-1.9	222/281/343	121	321	10	8	32%	7%	76	-0.4	219/279/346	127	314	10	7	32%	7%	73	-0.6
✕Kevin Encarnacion 2012 · A	20	45	36→40	56→55	51	210/281/283	74	266	2	20	21%	8%	62	-1.4	218/295/315	97	275	7	13	22%	9%	75	-0.5	227/301/318	90	284	8	11	22%	8%	74	-0.2
✕Luis Durango 2023 · A	20	44	35→30	53→65	46	204/281/259	55	266	3	24	23%	7%	58	-1.7	214/284/271	57	295	2	32	26%	6%	61	-1.5	251/307/296	45	331	0	54	22%	4%	70	-0.3
✕Pedro Toribio 2010 · A	20	42	36→40	55→60	47	199/265/272	73	259	3	17	23%	8%	53	-2.1	229/276/321	92	283	4	23	20%	6%	68	-1.0	258/292/370	112	309	4	31	17%	4%	83	+0.0
✕Darwin Perez 2009 · A	20	44→51	36→40	54→50	45	203/273/276	73	295	3	10	30%	8%	57	-1.8	226/286/296	70	317	3	12	27%	7%	66	-1.1	232/294/297	64	320	3	14	26%	7%	67	-0.8
✕Matt Cerda 2010 · A	20	43→53	38→40	50→40	46	205/262/283	78	260	6	6	23%	7%	55	-2.0	234/308/311	77	294	3	4	19%	9%	78	-0.3	235/317/306	71	295	3	4	19%	10%	79	-0.2
✕Dalton Pompey 2013 · A	20	40→50	40→45	55	44	197/265/289	92	278	8	16	30%	8%	58	-1.7	238/299/342	104	319	7	24	25%	8%	82	+0.0	258/316/357	98	327	7	29	22%	7%	89	+0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps