Joan Gutierrez

SS DSL Brewers Blue

Age 21 L/R 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK HR +10%K +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1341ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	17	ROKDSL Brewers 1	156	.159/.314/.238	0	7	4	—	.096/.218/.141
2024	18	ROKDSL Brewers 1	134	.153/.288/.216	0	8	-8	—	.095/.205/.129
2025	19	ROKDSL Brewers B…	144	.226/.431/.264	0	12	47	—	.147/.312/.172
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBMIL	254	.205/.289/.277	2	6	64	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBMIL	25	.207/.291/.291	0	1	69	0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	23	MLBMIL	78	.212/.295/.306	1	2	74	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

BB%95

Chase%92

K%71

wOBA69

wRC+67

Whiff%56

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .287 / .274

PA44

HR0

K%27

BB%9

ISO72

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Brewers 1	—	156	126	20	6	2	0	27	44	2	7	3	159	314	238	552	79	244	28	17	270	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Brewers 1	—	134	111	17	3	2	0	17	30	4	8	2	153	288	216	504	63	205	22	13	244	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Brewers Blue	—	144	106	24	4	0	0	33	25	5	12	4	226	431	264	695	38	296	17	23	347	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	—	156	135	13	4	1	0	19	54	2	7	3	96	218	141	359	44	152	35	12	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	—	134	116	11	2	1	0	12	37	4	8	2	95	205	129	334	34	124	28	9	157	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	—	144	116	17	3	0	0	23	29	5	12	4	147	312	172	485	26	191	20	16	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	—	156	135	13	4	1	0	19	54	2	7	3	96	218	141	359	44	160	35	12	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	—	156	126	20	6	2	0	27	44	2	7	3	159	314	238	552	79	244	28	17	270	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	—	134	116	11	2	1	0	12	37	4	8	2	95	205	129	334	34	136	28	9	157	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	—	134	111	17	3	2	0	17	30	4	8	2	153	288	216	504	63	205	22	13	244	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	—	144	116	17	3	0	0	23	29	5	12	4	147	312	172	485	26	195	20	16	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Blue	—	144	106	24	4	0	0	33	25	5	12	4	226	431	264	695	38	296	17	23	347	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	—	156	134	13	4	1	0	19	54	2	7	3	97	218	142	360	45	152	35	12	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	—	134	117	11	2	1	0	12	37	4	8	2	94	205	128	333	34	124	28	9	157	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	—	144	115	17	3	0	0	23	29	5	12	4	148	312	174	486	26	191	20	16	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	—	134	117	11	2	1	0	12	37	4	8	2	94	205	128	333	34	124	28	9	157	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	—	144	115	17	3	0	0	23	29	5	12	4	148	312	174	486	26	191	20	16	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIL	0%	254	225	47	8	2	2	23	68	4	6	1	205	289	277	566	72	283	27	9	262	64	-11	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	34%	73	65	14	2	1	1	7	19	1	2	0	210	294	294	588	84	284	26	10	271	69	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	50%	157	140	30	5	1	2	14	41	2	4	1	214	297	309	606	95	286	26	9	278	74	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	57%	240	213	47	8	2	4	22	62	3	5	1	218	300	321	622	103	287	26	9	284	78	-6	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	60%	311	276	60	10	2	5	28	80	4	7	1	221	303	331	634	111	288	26	9	288	81	-7	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	62%	359	318	72	12	3	7	33	92	5	8	2	223	304	339	643	116	288	26	9	291	83	-7	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	63%	381	338	75	12	3	7	35	98	5	9	2	222	303	336	640	115	288	26	9	290	83	-8	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIL	65%	391	348	77	13	3	7	35	101	5	8	2	220	301	332	633	112	287	26	9	288	81	-9	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIL	65%	388	345	76	12	3	7	35	102	5	8	2	218	299	326	625	108	286	26	9	284	78	-10	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	34%	25	23	4	1	0	0	2	7	0	1	0	207	291	291	582	84	280	28	8	268	69	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	50%	78	70	15	2	1	1	7	20	1	2	0	212	295	306	601	94	282	26	9	276	74	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	57%	136	121	26	4	1	2	12	35	2	3	1	216	298	319	617	103	283	26	9	282	78	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	60%	188	166	36	6	1	3	17	48	3	4	1	218	300	329	630	111	283	26	9	286	81	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	62%	224	199	44	7	2	4	20	57	3	5	1	220	302	337	639	117	284	25	9	290	83	-4	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	63%	242	215	47	7	2	5	22	62	3	5	1	219	301	335	636	115	283	26	9	288	83	-5	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIL	65%	254	226	50	8	2	5	23	66	3	5	1	218	299	330	629	112	282	26	9	286	81	-6	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIL	65%	252	224	50	8	2	5	23	66	3	5	1	215	297	324	620	109	281	26	9	282	78	-6	+1	-1	+3	+5	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1399	1244	272	43	11	25	126	361	18	30	6	219	300	331	631	113	286	26	9	285	70	-33	+4	-1	+15	+30	1.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	127	20	5	12	59	168	8	14	3	220	301	334	635	114	287	26	9	285	70	-15	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	2778	2449	499	84	20	40	267	727	42	79	20	204	293	303	596	100	271	26	10	271	70	-57	+6	-2	+25	+51	2.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	117	20	5	9	62	170	10	18	5	204	293	304	596	99	272	26	10	271	70	-16	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Brewers Blue · 144 PAwOBA .340 → .238 (−102)K% 17.4% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.36%	÷1.052	×1.220	—	—	20.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	22.92%	÷0.984	×0.700	—	×0.985	16.06%
HBP% /PA	3.47%	—	×0.700	—	×0.985	2.39%
Singles /BIP	24.69%	÷1.051	×0.680	×1.025	×0.985	16.12%
Doubles /BIP	4.94%	÷1.017	×0.600	×1.025	×0.985	2.94%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.042	×0.600	×1.025	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.042	×0.470	—	×0.985	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 110, 2B 103, 3B 108, K 110, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .340 → .238; ISO .038 → .025; BABIP .296 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Brewers 1 · 134 PAwOBA .243 → .157 (−86)K% 22.4% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.39%	÷0.984	×1.220	—	—	27.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.69%	÷0.994	×0.700	—	×0.995	8.89%
HBP% /PA	2.99%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	2.08%
Singles /BIP	14.81%	÷1.021	×0.680	×0.957	×0.995	9.40%
Doubles /BIP	3.70%	÷1.057	×0.600	×0.957	×0.995	2.00%
Triples /BIP	2.47%	÷1.088	×0.600	×0.957	×0.995	1.30%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.098	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 104, 2B 111, 3B 118, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .243 → .157; ISO .063 → .034; BABIP .205 → .124. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Brewers 1 · 156 PAwOBA .264 → .174 (−90)K% 28.2% → 34.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.21%	÷0.992	×1.220	—	—	34.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.31%	÷0.991	×0.700	—	×1.008	12.31%
HBP% /PA	1.28%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.90%
Singles /BIP	14.63%	÷1.015	×0.680	×0.962	×1.008	9.50%
Doubles /BIP	7.32%	÷0.988	×0.600	×0.962	×1.008	4.31%
Triples /BIP	2.44%	÷1.052	×0.600	×0.962	×1.008	1.35%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.026	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 98, 3B 110, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .264 → .174; ISO .079 → .045; BABIP .244 → .152. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ehire Adrianzalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,519 PA	2.3	1,519	20	19	240	310	353	+10	+13	4.0	4.4
	/162	664	9	8	240	310	353	+4.2	+5.5	1.8	pk7: 5
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Kiko Garcia'76-'85 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	2.4	1,595	12	34	232*	283*	343*	+14	+14	2.2	3.0
#3Kiko Garcia'76-'85 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	/162	664	5	14	232*	283*	343*	+5.7	+6.0	0.9	pk7: 4
#4Tim Bogar'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,710 PA	2.6	1,710	24	13	217*	284*	324*	+11	+37	2.1	2.9
#4Tim Bogar'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,710 PA	/162	664	9	5	217*	284*	324*	+4.2	+14.4	0.8	pk7: 4
#5Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	3.0	1,960	9	10	229*	288*	313*	+10	+27	2.7	2.7
#5Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	/162	664	3	3	229*	288*	313*	+3.6	+9.1	0.9	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.2	1,443	24	32	220	299	330	+15	+18	2.5	2.5
	/162	664	11	15	220	299	330	+7.1	+8.3	1.1	pk7: 2
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Joan Gutierrez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps