Joan Gutierrez — OGILVIE

Joan GutierrezSS DSL Brewers Blue

Age 20 L/R 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 120 proj PA

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .287 / .277

PA120

HR1

K%27

BB%10

ISO78

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE66

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$6M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.5M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$7M		$20M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Brewers 1	—	156	137	13	4	1	0	17	64	2	7	3	95	205	139	344	44	178	41	11	170	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Brewers 1	—	156	126	20	6	2	0	27	44	2	7	3	159	314	238	552	79	244	28	17	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Brewers 1	—	134	117	11	2	1	0	11	45	4	8	2	94	197	128	325	34	149	34	8	157	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Brewers 1	—	134	111	17	3	2	0	17	30	4	8	2	153	288	216	504	63	205	22	13	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Brewers Blue	—	144	118	19	3	0	0	21	33	5	12	4	161	312	186	499	25	224	23	15	245	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Brewers Blue	—	144	106	24	4	0	0	33	25	5	12	4	226	431	264	695	38	296	17	23	347	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	MIL	—	120	105	22	4	1	1	12	32	2	3	1	210	303	295	598	86	278	27	10	264	60	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	MIL	34%	204	179	37	7	1	2	20	54	3	5	1	207	297	291	588	84	280	26	10	276	69	-7	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.1
2028	22	MLB	MIL	48%	329	290	63	12	2	5	32	85	4	8	2	217	304	324	628	107	282	26	10	284	75	-9	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.5
2029	23	MLB	MIL	54%	414	366	80	15	3	7	40	106	5	10	3	219	304	333	637	115	284	26	10	289	79	-10	+1	+0	+4	+12	0.7
2030	24	MLB	MIL	55%	471	417	91	17	3	8	45	119	6	11	3	218	303	331	634	113	285	25	10	292	82	-10	+1	+0	+5	+13	1.0
2031	25	MLB	MIL	56%	504	443	98	18	3	9	49	127	7	12	3	221	309	336	645	115	285	25	10	294	83	-10	+1	+0	+5	+14	1.1
2032	26	MLB	MIL	56%	522	459	102	19	3	10	51	132	7	13	3	222	309	342	652	120	285	25	10	294	83	-10	+1	+0	+6	+15	1.2
2033	27	MLB	MIL	55%	529	465	103	19	3	10	52	134	7	13	3	222	309	340	649	118	285	25	10	294	83	-10	+1	+0	+6	+15	1.2
2034	28	MLB	MIL	55%	529	465	102	19	3	10	52	135	7	13	3	219	307	338	645	118	285	26	10	293	83	-10	+1	-1	+6	+15	1.1
2035	29	MLB	MIL	53%	522	458	99	18	3	9	52	134	7	12	3	216	306	328	633	111	284	26	10	292	81	-11	+1	-1	+6	+15	0.9
2036	30	MLB	MIL	53%	513	450	98	18	3	9	51	133	7	11	3	218	307	331	638	113	283	26	10	289	79	-12	+1	-2	+5	+15	0.7
2027	21	MLB	MIL	34%	70	62	12	2	0	1	7	18	1	2	0	194	286	274	560	81	278	26	10	264	60	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	MIL	48%	159	141	30	6	1	2	15	41	2	4	1	213	297	312	610	99	280	26	9	272	66	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2029	23	MLB	MIL	54%	225	198	43	8	1	4	22	57	3	5	1	217	305	328	633	111	282	25	10	277	70	-8	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.2
2030	24	MLB	MIL	55%	261	231	51	9	2	5	25	66	3	6	2	221	305	342	647	121	283	25	10	280	73	-8	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2031	25	MLB	MIL	56%	282	249	55	10	2	5	27	71	4	7	2	221	307	337	644	116	283	25	10	282	74	-8	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.3
2032	26	MLB	MIL	56%	294	260	56	10	2	5	28	74	4	7	2	215	301	327	628	112	283	25	10	282	74	-9	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.4
2033	27	MLB	MIL	55%	293	258	56	10	2	5	29	74	4	7	2	217	306	329	635	112	283	25	10	282	74	-9	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.4
2034	28	MLB	MIL	55%	290	255	55	10	2	5	29	74	4	7	2	216	306	329	635	114	282	26	10	281	74	-9	+1	-0	+3	+8	0.3
2035	29	MLB	MIL	53%	279	245	54	10	2	5	28	72	4	6	2	220	310	339	649	118	282	26	10	280	72	-9	+0	-1	+3	+8	0.2
2036	30	MLB	MIL	53%	270	237	51	9	2	5	27	70	4	6	2	215	306	333	639	118	281	26	10	277	70	-9	+0	-1	+3	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2423	2136	463	84	16	42	237	617	33	57	16	217	305	330	635	113	283	25	10	279	72	-77	+5	-2	+26	+69	2.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	124	23	4	11	64	166	9	15	4	216	305	328	633	112	284	26	10	279	72	-21	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	5091	4469	938	175	30	80	505	1333	73	138	37	210	300	316	617	106	278	26	10	282	74	-151	+13	-4	+55	+144	5.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	119	22	4	10	64	170	9	18	5	208	298	313	612	105	276	26	10	282	74	-19	+2	-1	+7	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Brewers 1	—	156	126	20	6	2	27	44	2	7	3	159	314	238	552	79	244	28	17	270	65	-6	+0	—	—	+4	-0.2
2024	18	ROK	DSL Brewers 1	—	134	111	17	3	2	17	30	4	8	2	153	288	216	504	63	205	22	13	244	45	-8	+1	—	—	+4	-0.4
2025	19	ROK	DSL Brewers Blue	—	144	106	24	4	0	33	25	5	12	4	226	431	264	695	38	296	17	23	347	124	+4	+1	—	—	+4	0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,542	44	60	219	303	333	+27	+18	4.7	4.4
	/162	664	11	16	219	303	333	+7.1	+4.7	1.2	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joan Gutierrez (OGILVIE)	20	39→44	28→33	55→60	66	199/287/277	77	278	1	3	27%	10%	60	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→49	39→45	60→55	46	193/267/285	92	274	5	17	29%	8%	53	-1.5	216/290/303	87	291	6	17	26%	9%	67	-0.5	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Wilbis Santiago 2016 · A	20	45	35→40	55→30	46	209/266/267	58	257	2	10	19%	6%	46	-2.0	224/267/299	75	261	3	8	15%	4%	55	-1.4	249/275/330	81	280	3	3	12%	2%	64	-0.2
●Eliezer Álvarez 2015 · A	20	43→53	40→45	54→55	44	206/262/313	106	260	6	11	22%	6%	56	-1.3	245/295/352	107	322	5	15	24%	6%	81	+0.4	254/308/362	108	342	5	19	26%	6%	87	+0.4
✕Enmanuel Terrero 2023 · A	20	47	37→45	47→55	54	220/301/294	74	277	4	12	20%	10%	69	-0.4	211/284/306	95	333	9	15	36%	9%	65	-0.7	194/268/287	93	319	11	18	39%	8%	51	-0.6
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2016 · A	20	49	39→45	60→65	52	227/313/330	103	311	4	16	26%	10%	83	+0.6	207/274/300	93	331	6	26	36%	7%	59	-1.1	227/303/343	115	312	13	52	29%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Yoyner Fajardo 2019 · A	20	50→58	38→45	58→60	49	232/294/325	93	280	3	14	18%	7%	73	-0.1	235/293/308	73	293	3	19	19%	6%	68	-0.5	259/317/353	94	332	5	34	22%	7%	85	+0.4
✕Freizer Pedron 2007 · A	20	44	37→40	49→55	42	207/263/283	75	275	4	12	25%	6%	50	-1.8	229/295/302	73	307	3	16	24%	7%	69	-0.4	262/328/337	75	341	2	29	22%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2019 · A	20	46→51	36→45	50→60	46	216/275/284	68	263	2	13	18%	6%	55	-1.4	225/285/316	91	315	3	20	27%	7%	67	-0.5	240/313/341	101	332	7	39	27%	9%	83	+0.3
✕Juan Carlos Gamboa 2011 · A	20	48	35→45	50	50	221/281/288	67	274	1	13	19%	8%	58	-1.2	221/273/313	92	295	7	9	26%	7%	61	-1.0	237/296/326	89	318	10	5	27%	7%	75	+0.0
✕Jake Fox 2023 · A	20	45→42	39→40	54→50	49	212/301/304	92	297	6	15	28%	10%	72	-0.2	195/269/291	96	274	7	11	29%	9%	55	-1.4	181/270/264	83	253	5	13	28%	11%	47	-0.9
✕Jose Reyes 2018 · A	19	45	36→45	55	44	211/255/282	71	259	2	13	19%	5%	45	-2.1	226/279/325	99	265	7	15	17%	6%	66	-0.6	248/303/371	123	270	10	25	12%	7%	85	+0.3
✕Thomas Milone 2015 · A	20	41→44	36→45	51→55	38	194/246/266	72	293	3	10	33%	6%	37	-2.6	192/245/252	60	278	3	13	30%	6%	33	-2.9	243/298/369	125	340	8	17	29%	6%	82	+0.3
✕Glenn Santiago 2021 · A	20	43	37→40	55→45	46	200/274/277	78	262	3	13	23%	7%	54	-1.4	206/269/298	92	281	7	9	27%	7%	56	-1.3	184/247/261	77	274	7	8	33%	7%	35	-1.1
✕Adrian Abreu 2011 · A	20	43	37→40	52→55	44	204/258/281	77	261	3	10	22%	6%	46	-2.0	205/283/290	85	253	7	15	20%	9%	61	-1.0	194/284/274	80	231	8	20	19%	10%	56	-0.4
✕Luis Valenzuela 2014 · A	20	41	37→45	53→45	46	193/250/268	75	240	4	9	21%	7%	40	-2.4	227/256/313	86	294	5	8	24%	4%	53	-1.5	257/280/358	100	316	5	7	20%	2%	71	-0.1
✕Junior Valera 2013 · A	20	42	36→40	51→60	45	196/266/265	69	275	2	10	28%	8%	46	-2.0	226/289/310	84	293	3	18	22%	8%	67	-0.5	245/308/338	94	307	3	28	20%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Roberto Caro 2014 · A	20	46→38	35→40	56→60	48	210/285/283	73	287	1	16	25%	8%	59	-1.1	206/280/293	87	292	3	18	28%	8%	59	-1.1	212/285/292	79	328	2	26	33%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Jason Denham 2007 · A	21	40→45	35→40	53→55	44	190/254/251	61	280	3	10	31%	8%	37	-2.6	218/277/298	80	290	8	18	26%	7%	59	-1.1	217/279/292	74	284	8	21	25%	7%	57	-0.8
✕Luke Williams 2017 · A	20	46	36→45	50→60	47	215/283/280	65	292	3	11	26%	8%	57	-1.2	193/244/262	69	260	5	17	26%	6%	36	-2.7	230/291/360	130	317	13	42	30%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Matt Cerda 2010 · A	20	43→53	38→40	50→40	46	205/262/283	78	260	6	6	23%	7%	49	-1.8	234/306/310	76	293	3	4	19%	9%	75	-0.0	234/314/304	70	294	3	4	19%	10%	75	-0.0