Railin Tea — OGILVIE

Railin Tea2B DSL Orioles Black

Age 20 S/R 5'9" / 162 lbs ROK HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 54 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.245 / .315 / .388

PA54

HR1

K%26

BB%7

BABIP324

ISO143

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$6M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$18M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	173	161	31	3	4	1	8	49	3	18	5	193	244	280	524	87	268	28	5	224	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	173	156	40	5	6	2	13	34	3	18	5	256	326	404	729	147	314	20	8	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Rays	—	176	146	23	4	2	1	15	44	12	19	3	158	289	233	522	75	214	25	9	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Rays	—	176	138	27	6	2	1	23	31	12	19	3	196	358	290	648	94	241	18	13	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	ROK	BAL	—	26	24	4	0	0	0	1	9	1	3	1	167	231	167	397		267	35	4	179	-5	-3	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.2
YTD	20	ROK	BAL	—	26	23	5	0	0	0	2	6	1	3	1	217	308	217	525		294	23	8	256	54	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
ROS	20	ROK	BAL	0%	54	49	12	2	1	1	4	14	1	1	0	245	315	388	703	143	284	26	7	266	62	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.0
ROS	20	MLB	BAL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		288	—	—	258	55	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	ROK	BAL	—	26	25	4	0	0	0	1	9	1	3	1	160	231	160	391		250	35	4	179	-5	-3	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.2
TOT	20	ROK	BAL	—	80	73	16	2	1	1	5	23	2	4	1	219	287	315	603	96	306	29	6	238	40	-5	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	BAL	34%	123	111	24	4	1	2	9	31	2	3	1	216	287	324	611	108	286	25	7	279	72	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.0
2028	22	MLB	BAL	48%	269	244	54	9	2	5	19	68	4	6	1	221	288	336	624	115	288	25	7	288	78	-7	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2029	23	MLB	BAL	54%	374	338	77	13	3	8	27	93	6	9	2	228	296	355	652	127	289	25	7	294	83	-7	+1	+0	+1	+11	0.6
2030	24	MLB	BAL	55%	444	401	93	16	4	10	33	110	7	10	2	232	302	367	668	135	290	25	7	298	86	-7	+1	+0	+2	+13	0.9
2031	25	MLB	BAL	56%	487	440	101	17	4	11	36	120	8	11	2	230	300	361	661	132	290	25	7	300	88	-7	+1	+0	+2	+14	1.0
2032	26	MLB	BAL	56%	512	461	106	18	4	12	38	126	8	12	2	230	300	364	664	134	290	25	7	301	89	-6	+2	+0	+2	+15	1.2
2033	27	MLB	BAL	55%	524	471	110	18	5	13	40	130	8	12	2	234	304	376	680	142	290	25	8	302	89	-7	+2	+0	+2	+15	1.2
2034	28	MLB	BAL	55%	527	474	109	18	4	13	40	131	8	12	2	230	301	367	668	137	290	25	8	300	88	-7	+2	-1	+2	+15	1.1
2035	29	MLB	BAL	53%	522	469	107	18	4	12	40	131	8	11	2	228	300	360	660	132	289	25	8	299	87	-8	+1	-1	+2	+15	0.9
2027	21	MLB	BAL	34%	42	38	8	1	0	1	3	11	1	1	0	211	286	316	602	105	290	26	7	271	65	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	BAL	48%	130	118	28	5	1	3	9	33	2	3	1	237	302	373	675	136	292	25	7	280	72	-4	+0	+0	+0	+4	0.0
2029	23	MLB	BAL	54%	203	183	42	7	2	4	15	50	3	5	1	230	299	355	654	126	293	25	7	286	77	-5	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.2
2030	24	MLB	BAL	55%	246	222	52	9	2	6	18	61	4	6	1	234	303	374	677	140	294	25	7	291	81	-5	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.3
2031	25	MLB	BAL	56%	273	247	58	10	2	7	20	67	4	6	1	235	303	377	679	142	294	25	7	293	82	-5	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.4
2032	26	MLB	BAL	56%	288	260	60	10	2	7	21	71	5	7	1	231	301	365	666	135	294	25	7	294	83	-5	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.5
2033	27	MLB	BAL	55%	290	261	61	11	2	7	22	72	5	7	1	234	306	372	677	138	294	25	8	294	83	-5	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.5
2034	28	MLB	BAL	55%	289	261	60	10	2	7	22	72	4	6	1	230	300	364	664	134	294	25	8	293	83	-6	+1	-0	+1	+8	0.4
2035	29	MLB	BAL	53%	279	252	58	10	2	7	21	70	4	6	1	230	300	369	669	139	293	25	8	291	81	-6	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2040	1843	427	73	15	49	151	507	32	47	8	232	301	367	669	136	292	25	7	291	81	-44	+6	-1	+7	+58	2.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	136	23	5	16	48	162	10	15	3	232	301	370	670	138	291	25	7	291	81	-14	+2	-0	+2	+18	0.8
Career	—			—	4185	3765	847	140	38	89	309	1047	75	124	24	225	297	353	650	128	286	25	7	291	81	-89	+15	-2	+15	+119	5.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	132	22	6	14	48	163	12	19	4	226	298	356	654	130	286	25	7	291	81	-14	+2	-0	+2	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	173	156	40	5	6	2	13	34	3	18	5	256	326	404	729	147	314	20	8	324	106	+1	+2	—	—	+5	0.8
2024	18	ROK	DSL Rays	—	176	138	27	6	2	1	23	31	12	19	3	196	358	290	648	94	241	18	13	308	94	-1	+3	—	—	+5	0.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	11	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
	/162	664	18	10	226	302	380	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,120	48	48	231	297	365	+8	+6	3.9	3.8
	/162	664	15	15	231	297	365	+2.4	+1.9	1.2	pk7: 4
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Railin Tea (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	219/288/315	96	306	1	4	29%	6%	40	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dalton Pompey 2013 · A	20	40→50	40→45	55	44	196/264/288	92	278	8	16	31%	8%	52	-1.6	236/297/340	104	317	6	24	26%	7%	79	+0.3	259/316/359	100	331	7	29	22%	7%	87	+0.7
✕Angel Martínez 2022 · A	20	41→47	41→50	49→50	44	202/257/305	102	265	8	10	26%	7%	53	-1.5	223/285/351	128	285	12	10	25%	7%	77	+0.1	226/291/358	132	282	13	10	24%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Blake Perkins 2018 · A	21	44→51	40→50	51→55	43	214/270/306	92	286	8	15	27%	7%	59	-1.1	203/268/295	92	290	8	17	31%	8%	56	-1.3	230/313/367	137	305	14	25	27%	10%	91	+0.7
✕Juan Brito 2022 · A	20	45→49	42→50	47→45	45	219/283/320	101	283	10	12	26%	7%	68	-0.5	232/313/374	142	284	14	9	22%	10%	95	+1.4	227/311/374	147	272	15	9	21%	10%	92	+1.1
✕Josh Johnson 2006 · A	20	43→49	39→45	48→50	50	203/280/297	94	266	5	9	24%	9%	61	-1.0	218/304/287	69	285	3	10	22%	11%	69	-0.4	249/317/359	110	296	9	16	18%	9%	89	+0.6
✕Shawn O'Malley 2008 · A	20	42→52	36→45	50→60	41	198/262/265	67	281	4	11	29%	6%	45	-2.1	214/290/268	54	298	1	24	26%	7%	58	-1.2	263/323/363	100	326	5	23	19%	7%	92	+0.8
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	41→42	39→45	53→50	42	196/255/285	89	270	5	13	28%	7%	46	-2.0	211/283/320	109	300	10	13	30%	9%	69	-0.4	209/285/321	112	292	12	14	30%	9%	67	-0.4
✕Leody Taveras 2019 · A	20	45→53	37→50	50→55	43	215/256/289	74	273	4	12	23%	5%	47	-1.9	218/268/322	104	296	9	19	28%	6%	62	-0.9	239/291/390	151	301	16	19	25%	6%	88	+0.8
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2021 · A	20	41→48	42→55	52→55	41	203/255/306	103	257	10	13	25%	5%	53	-1.5	230/269/385	155	293	16	19	27%	4%	79	+0.3	247/287/396	150	298	15	20	22%	4%	88	+0.7
✕Adalberto Mondesi 2015 · A	20	41→51	41→60	54→65	35	204/236/300	96	284	8	14	31%	4%	41	-2.3	214/244/343	129	296	13	25	31%	4%	56	-1.3	254/284/439	186	334	19	49	29%	4%	98	+1.2
✕Arismendy Alcántara 2011 · A	19	44→48	39→60	57→55	44	210/262/301	91	273	5	14	24%	6%	53	-1.5	233/267/329	96	309	7	15	26%	4%	63	-0.9	233/273/379	146	307	15	25	28%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Riley Unroe 2017 · A	21	39→48	36→50	46→55	42	189/249/245	56	269	4	12	30%	7%	33	-2.9	195/262/273	78	283	6	12	31%	8%	46	-2.0	227/311/367	139	295	15	26	27%	10%	89	+0.5
●Miguel Gómez 2013 · A	20	42→52	38→50	49→40	41	199/257/279	80	273	4	6	28%	6%	46	-2.0	221/266/318	97	290	7	5	25%	5%	59	-1.1	276/293/423	147	309	16	1	16%	2%	95	+1.0
✕Karexon Sanchez 2008 · A	20	42→48	40→45	50	44	204/268/288	84	276	8	14	28%	7%	53	-1.5	209/274/318	109	301	10	11	32%	7%	64	-0.8	222/301/333	110	309	10	11	29%	8%	76	+0.0
✕Rosell Herrera 2013 · A	20	40→50	37→45	48→55	40	193/243/266	73	268	5	9	29%	6%	37	-2.7	229/276/310	81	309	7	10	26%	6%	62	-0.9	247/301/337	90	315	4	24	22%	7%	76	+0.1
●Eliezer Álvarez 2015 · A	20	43→53	40→45	54→55	44	206/262/313	106	260	6	11	22%	6%	56	-1.3	245/295/352	107	322	5	15	24%	6%	81	+0.4	254/308/362	108	342	5	19	26%	6%	87	+0.4
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	40→50	57→55	42	201/257/293	92	281	6	22	30%	7%	50	-1.8	232/286/367	135	290	12	21	23%	7%	82	+0.5	254/312/374	120	299	11	11	18%	7%	92	+1.0
✕Ronny Simon 2019 · A	19	41→51	37→50	47→55	44	195/271/269	74	274	3	11	28%	7%	50	-1.7	212/273/338	126	273	10	14	25%	7%	68	-0.5	261/322/377	116	323	10	29	21%	7%	95	+1.0
●Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→50	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	55	-1.4	199/251/270	71	293	3	25	31%	6%	40	-2.4	248/301/422	175	338	22	29	32%	6%	100	+0.7
●Danny Santana 2011 · A	20	42→52	39→60	54→55	35	204/237/295	91	280	6	15	29%	4%	41	-2.3	223/259/317	94	300	6	16	27%	4%	56	-1.3	242/287/452	210	303	27	22	29%	5%	101	+1.1