Railin Tea

2B DSL Orioles Black

Age 21 S/R 5'9" / 162 lbs ROK HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1916ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	17	ROKDSL Tampa Bay	173	.256/.326/.404	2	18	26	—	.169/.227/.244
2024	18	ROKTB	176	.196/.358/.290	1	19	31	—	.132/.277/.174
2026	20	ROKDSL Orioles B…	37	.258/.378/.355	0	3	34	—	.182/.270/.273
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBBAL	149	.208/.286/.289	1	4	65	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBBAL	28	.215/.293/.309	0	1	70	-0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	23	MLBBAL	81	.219/.296/.322	1	2	74	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 30 proj PA

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .283 / .286

PA30

HR0

K%26

BB%8

ISO81

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	173	156	40	5	6	2	13	34	3	18	5	256	326	404	729	147	314	20	8	324	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Rays	—	176	138	27	6	2	1	23	31	12	19	3	196	358	290	648	94	241	18	13	308	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	37	31	8	1	1	0	5	8	1	3	1	258	378	355	733	97	348	22	14	339	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	173	160	27	3	3	1	9	42	3	18	5	169	227	244	470	75	215	24	5	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	176	144	19	4	1	0	17	38	12	19	3	132	277	174	451	42	163	22	10	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	37	33	6	1	1	0	3	10	1	3	1	182	270	273	543	91	226	27	8	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	173	160	27	3	3	1	9	42	3	18	5	169	227	244	470	75	220	24	5	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	—	173	156	40	5	6	2	13	34	3	18	5	256	326	404	729	147	314	20	8	324	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	176	144	19	4	1	0	17	38	12	19	3	132	277	174	451	42	176	22	10	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	—	176	138	27	6	2	1	23	31	12	19	3	196	358	290	648	94	241	18	13	308	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	37	33	6	1	1	0	3	10	1	3	1	182	270	273	543	91	261	27	8	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	—	37	31	8	1	1	0	5	8	1	3	1	258	378	355	733	97	348	22	14	339	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	173	159	27	3	3	1	9	42	3	18	5	170	227	245	472	75	215	24	5	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	176	145	19	4	1	0	17	38	12	19	3	131	277	172	450	41	163	22	10	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	37	33	6	1	1	0	3	10	1	3	1	182	270	273	543	91	226	27	8	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	176	145	19	4	1	0	17	38	12	19	3	131	277	172	450	41	163	22	10	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	37	33	6	1	1	0	3	10	1	3	1	182	270	273	543	91	226	27	8	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	BAL	0%	149	134	28	5	2	1	11	39	3	4	1	208	286	289	574	81	284	26	7	264	65	-6	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	BAL	34%	82	74	16	3	1	1	6	21	2	2	0	212	290	304	594	91	285	26	7	272	70	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	BAL	50%	162	145	31	5	2	2	13	42	3	4	1	216	293	316	610	100	287	26	8	278	74	-5	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	BAL	57%	245	219	48	8	2	4	19	63	5	6	1	219	297	327	623	107	288	26	8	283	78	-6	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	BAL	60%	314	280	63	11	3	5	25	80	6	8	1	222	299	335	634	114	288	25	8	287	81	-7	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	BAL	62%	358	320	71	12	3	6	28	91	7	9	1	224	300	342	642	118	288	25	8	290	83	-7	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	BAL	63%	379	339	75	13	3	7	30	96	7	9	1	222	299	339	639	117	288	25	8	289	82	-8	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	BAL	65%	386	346	75	13	3	6	30	99	7	8	1	221	297	335	632	114	287	26	8	286	80	-9	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	BAL	65%	382	342	74	13	3	6	30	99	7	6	1	218	294	328	622	110	285	26	8	282	77	-10	+1	-1	+1	+8	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	BAL	34%	28	25	5	1	0	0	2	7	1	1	0	215	293	309	602	94	289	25	7	275	70	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	BAL	50%	81	73	16	3	1	1	6	21	2	2	0	219	296	322	619	103	291	26	7	281	74	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	BAL	57%	139	124	27	5	1	2	11	36	3	4	1	223	300	334	633	111	292	26	8	287	78	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	BAL	60%	190	169	39	7	2	3	15	48	4	5	1	225	302	342	644	117	293	25	8	291	81	-4	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	BAL	62%	224	200	45	8	2	4	18	57	4	6	1	227	303	349	653	122	293	25	8	295	83	-5	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	BAL	63%	240	214	48	8	2	4	19	61	5	6	1	226	302	347	649	121	292	25	8	293	82	-5	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	BAL	65%	251	224	50	9	2	4	20	64	5	5	1	224	300	342	642	118	291	25	8	290	80	-6	+1	-0	+1	+5	0.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	BAL	65%	248	222	48	8	2	4	19	64	5	4	1	221	297	335	632	114	289	26	8	286	77	-7	+0	-1	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1401	1251	278	49	12	22	110	358	29	33	6	222	300	333	633	111	292	26	8	290	72	-34	+4	-1	+5	+30	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	129	23	6	10	51	166	13	15	3	222	299	334	634	112	292	26	8	290	72	-16	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	2724	2429	510	87	25	38	212	689	61	93	16	210	290	313	603	103	275	25	8	275	72	-58	+8	-2	+8	+51	0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	122	21	6	9	51	164	15	22	4	210	292	314	606	103	275	25	8	275	72	-16	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Orioles Black · 37 PAwOBA .332 → .219 (−113)K% 21.6% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.62%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	26.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.51%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.985	9.32%
HBP% /PA	2.70%	—	×0.700	—	×0.985	1.86%
Singles /BIP	26.09%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×0.985	17.47%
Doubles /BIP	4.35%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.985	2.57%
Triples /BIP	4.35%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.985	2.57%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.985	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .332 → .219; ISO .097 → .057; BABIP .348 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Rays · 176 PAwOBA .305 → .214 (−90)K% 17.6% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.61%	÷1.004	×1.220	—	—	21.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.07%	÷0.985	×0.700	—	×1.008	9.36%
HBP% /PA	6.82%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	4.81%
Singles /BIP	16.82%	÷0.994	×0.680	×1.030	×1.008	11.94%
Doubles /BIP	5.61%	÷1.053	×0.600	×1.030	×1.008	3.32%
Triples /BIP	1.87%	÷0.900	×0.600	×1.030	×1.008	1.29%
Home runs /BIP	0.93%	÷1.160	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.38%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 99, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .305 → .214; ISO .094 → .058; BABIP .241 → .163. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Tampa Bay · 173 PAwOBA .317 → .207 (−110)K% 19.7% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.65%	÷0.999	×1.220	—	—	24.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.51%	÷1.025	×0.700	—	×1.022	5.25%
HBP% /PA	1.73%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.24%
Singles /BIP	22.13%	÷0.963	×0.680	×1.019	×1.022	16.29%
Doubles /BIP	4.10%	÷1.106	×0.600	×1.019	×1.022	2.32%
Triples /BIP	4.92%	÷1.061	×0.600	×1.019	×1.022	2.90%
Home runs /BIP	1.64%	÷1.121	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.70%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 93, 2B 121, 3B 112, K 100, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .317 → .207; ISO .147 → .079; BABIP .314 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Kiko Garcia'76-'85 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	2.4	1,595	12	34	232*	283*	343*	+14	+14	2.2	3.0
#2Kiko Garcia'76-'85 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	/162	664	5	14	232*	283*	343*	+5.7	+6.0	0.9	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.2	1,430	23	32	221	295	334	+5	+6	1.4	1.4
	/162	664	11	15	221	295	334	+2.4	+2.8	0.7	pk7: 1
#4Al Weis'62-'71 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,763 PA	2.7	1,763	7	55	223*	283*	300*	+10	+9	-0.2	1.3
#4Al Weis'62-'71 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,763 PA	/162	664	3	21	223*	283*	300*	+3.8	+3.5	-0.1	pk7: 3
#5Doug Strange'89-'98 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,067 PA	3.1	2,067	31	14	225*	286*	340*	+5	-0	-1.5	0.0
#5Doug Strange'89-'98 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,067 PA	/162	664	10	4	225*	286*	340*	+1.6	-0.1	-0.5	pk7: 1
#6Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
	/162	664	17	7	220	282	351	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0

Railin Tea

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps