Railin Tea — OGILVIE

Railin Tea2B DSL Orioles Black

Age 20 S/R 5'9" / 162 lbs ROK HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 7 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.143 / .143 / .143

PA7

HR0

K%29

BB%7

BABIP291

ISO96

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	173	156	40	5	6	2	13	34	3	18	5	256	326	404	729	147	314	20	8	324	105	+1	+2	—	—	+4	0.7
2024	18	ROK	DSL Rays	—	176	138	27	6	2	1	23	31	12	19	3	196	358	290	648	94	241	18	13	308	94	-1	+3	—	—	+4	0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	173	161	30	3	4	1	8	49	3	18	5	186	238	273	512	87	254	28	5	226	39	-13	+2	—	—	+4	-0.7
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	176	147	23	4	2	1	14	45	12	19	3	156	283	231	515	75	195	26	8	225	38	-13	+3	—	—	+4	-0.7
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	173	161	30	3	4	1	8	49	3	18	5	186	238	273	512	87	259	28	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	—	173	156	40	5	6	2	13	34	3	18	5	256	326	404	729	147	314	20	8	324	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	176	147	23	4	2	1	14	45	12	19	3	156	283	231	515	75	214	26	8	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	—	176	138	27	6	2	1	23	31	12	19	3	196	358	290	648	94	241	18	13	308	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	173	160	30	3	4	1	8	49	3	18	5	188	238	275	513	88	254	28	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	176	148	23	4	2	1	14	45	12	19	3	155	283	230	513	74	195	26	8	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	173	160	30	3	4	1	8	49	3	18	5	188	238	275	513	88	254	28	5	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	176	148	23	4	2	1	14	45	12	19	3	155	283	230	513	74	195	26	8	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	BAL	—	37	33	7	1	1	0	3	12	1	3	1	212	297	303	600	91	333	32	8	234	45	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK RAW	BAL	—	37	31	8	1	1	0	5	8	1	3	1	258	378	355	733	97	348	22	14	339	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	ROK MLE	BAL	0%	7	7	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	143	143	143	286		288	29	0	269	68	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	20	ROK MLE	BAL	—	44	40	8	1	1	0	3	14	1	3	1	200	273	275	548	75	308	32	7	240	48	-3	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	BAL	34%	123	111	24	4	1	2	9	32	2	3	1	216	287	324	611	108	286	26	7	279	75	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.0
2028	22	MLB MLE	BAL	48%	269	243	55	9	3	5	20	68	4	6	1	226	296	350	646	123	287	25	7	288	81	-6	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	BAL	54%	374	337	77	13	4	8	28	93	6	9	2	228	299	362	661	134	289	25	7	294	85	-7	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	BAL	55%	444	401	92	16	4	10	33	110	7	11	2	229	299	364	663	135	290	25	7	298	88	-6	+1	+0	+2	+10	0.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	BAL	56%	487	439	101	17	5	11	37	121	8	12	2	230	302	367	668	137	290	25	8	300	89	-6	+2	+0	+2	+11	0.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	BAL	56%	512	460	107	18	5	12	39	127	8	12	3	233	304	372	675	139	290	25	8	302	90	-6	+1	+0	+2	+11	0.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	BAL	55%	524	471	109	18	5	13	40	130	8	13	3	231	303	374	676	142	290	25	8	302	91	-6	+1	+0	+2	+11	0.9
2034	28	MLB MLE	BAL	55%	527	473	109	18	5	13	41	132	8	12	3	230	303	372	675	142	289	25	8	301	90	-6	+1	-1	+2	+11	0.8
2035	29	MLB MLE	BAL	53%	522	468	107	18	5	12	41	131	8	11	2	229	302	365	667	137	288	25	8	299	89	-7	+1	-1	+2	+11	0.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	BAL	53%	514	461	105	17	5	12	40	131	8	10	2	228	301	364	665	137	287	25	8	296	87	-8	+1	-2	+2	+11	0.4
2037	31	MLB MLE	BAL	52%	502	450	101	17	4	11	39	129	8	8	2	224	298	353	651	129	284	26	8	292	84	-10	+1	-3	+2	+11	0.1
2038	32	MLB MLE	BAL	52%	485	437	95	15	4	10	38	127	7	7	1	217	290	339	629	121	281	26	8	287	80	-11	+1	-4	+2	+11	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	BAL	34%	42	38	8	1	0	1	3	11	1	1	0	211	286	316	602	105	289	26	7	271	75	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	BAL	48%	130	117	27	5	1	3	10	33	2	3	1	231	302	368	670	137	291	25	8	280	81	-3	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	BAL	54%	203	183	42	7	2	4	15	51	3	5	1	230	299	355	654	126	293	25	7	287	85	-4	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	BAL	55%	246	222	52	9	2	6	18	61	4	6	1	234	303	374	677	140	294	25	7	291	88	-4	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	BAL	56%	273	246	59	10	3	7	21	68	4	7	1	240	310	390	700	150	294	25	8	294	89	-3	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	BAL	56%	288	259	61	10	3	7	22	71	5	7	1	236	308	378	686	143	294	25	8	295	90	-3	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	BAL	55%	290	261	61	10	3	7	22	72	5	7	1	234	306	375	681	142	294	25	8	295	91	-3	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	BAL	55%	289	260	61	10	3	7	22	72	5	7	1	235	307	377	684	142	293	25	8	294	90	-4	+1	-0	+1	+6	0.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	BAL	53%	279	251	58	10	2	7	22	70	4	6	1	231	303	371	674	139	292	25	8	292	89	-4	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	BAL	53%	270	243	55	9	2	6	21	69	4	5	1	226	299	354	652	128	291	26	8	289	87	-4	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.2
2037	31	MLB CTX	BAL	52%	262	235	53	9	2	6	21	67	4	4	1	226	300	357	657	132	288	26	8	285	84	-5	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.1
2038	32	MLB CTX	BAL	52%	252	226	50	8	2	6	20	66	4	3	1	221	296	354	650	133	285	26	8	280	80	-6	+0	-2	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2824	2541	587	98	25	67	217	711	45	61	11	231	303	368	671	137	293	25	8	290	84	-44	+8	-6	+10	+61	3.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	135	23	6	15	50	164	10	14	3	231	302	368	670	137	293	25	8	290	84	-10	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	5639	5066	1136	187	56	121	427	1427	97	151	32	224	297	355	652	131	286	25	8	292	84	-84	+13	-10	+19	+115	5.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	131	22	6	14	49	164	11	17	4	224	297	354	651	130	285	25	8	292	84	-10	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	4.3	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
/162	664	18	10	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.4	2,903	65	63	228	297	362	+10	+7	5.0	4.6
/162	664	15	14	+2.4	+1.6	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Railin Tea (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	212/280/307	95	288	1	2	27%	7%	68	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brian Navarreto 2015 · A	20	34	41→45	48→30	36	176/226/276	100	264	9	5	36%	5%	40	-3.0	179/218/244	65	249	5	2	29%	4%	29	-3.8	200/249/314	115	246	14	1	25%	5%	55	-0.7
✕John Silviano 2014 · A	20	32→34	40→50	42→40	41	166/236/258	92	256	8	4	37%	8%	40	-3.0	183/239/276	93	328	8	5	43%	6%	45	-2.7	179/240/323	144	277	18	2	41%	7%	54	-1.0
✕Robert Jacobsen 2007 · A	22	42→52	34→40	53→50	37	195/247/246	51	303	2	13	34%	6%	40	-3.0	200/255/265	65	319	3	10	35%	6%	48	-2.5	208/257/276	68	324	3	8	35%	5%	48	-1.1
✕Darwin Pena 2014 · A	21	40	37→30	49→40	42	191/239/260	69	252	4	4	25%	6%	40	-3.0	186/241/244	58	251	3	4	25%	6%	38	-3.2	147/203/159	12	210	0	0	28%	6%	7	-1.1
✕Emmanuel Tapia 2014 · A	18	39→24	37→45	49→30	36	186/238/258	72	275	4	7	32%	4%	40	-3.0	212/269/307	95	316	8	6	33%	6%	63	-1.3	158/213/277	119	263	16	1	45%	6%	35	-1.9
✕Kristian Brito 2017 · A	22	39→32	41→50	47→40	32	187/227/278	91	317	9	5	42%	5%	40	-3.0	197/244/302	105	345	11	6	43%	6%	53	-2.1	145/191/237	91	265	11	0	48%	5%	14	-1.2
✕Edwin Wilson 2009 · A	19	39	35→30	41→50	39	186/245/244	58	272	3	6	31%	6%	40	-3.0	184/255/242	58	273	3	8	31%	7%	44	-2.8	138/227/164	26	209	2	11	32%	7%	14	-1.8
✕Nicanor Alvarado 2014 · A	20	40	37→30	49→30	39	189/248/263	75	296	4	6	36%	7%	45	-2.7	170/228/241	71	322	3	4	45%	5%	33	-3.6	114/173/170	56	237	2	0	49%	3%	-5	-1.2
✕Cristian Recio 2007 · A	20	42	36→30	49→50	39	198/251/259	61	305	4	11	35%	6%	45	-2.7	192/236/262	70	317	4	11	38%	5%	40	-3.1	154/181/210	57	266	2	15	42%	2%	4	-1.5
✕Julio Cabrera 2016 · A	18	37	36→30	53→50	45	175/252/244	69	263	2	9	32%	8%	43	-2.8	177/243/251	74	237	4	7	25%	6%	41	-3.0	139/207/208	69	178	4	5	23%	5%	16	-1.0
✕Kidany Salva 2017 · A	18	41	36→30	51→50	38	194/240/265	70	282	3	7	32%	5%	42	-2.9	192/249/252	60	265	3	7	26%	6%	43	-2.8	176/231/208	32	227	0	5	21%	4%	24	-0.8
✕Lorenzo Piron 2010 · A	19	37	37→30	40→45	40	177/247/249	72	254	4	5	30%	6%	42	-2.9	196/254/257	61	265	3	6	26%	6%	46	-2.6	177/227/188	11	230	0	6	22%	4%	18	-1.1
✕Anderson Jimenez 2015 · A	18	39	38→30	45→50	37	190/244/262	72	285	6	7	34%	6%	43	-2.8	191/246/264	73	278	6	8	32%	6%	45	-2.7	149/205/199	49	209	6	10	30%	5%	13	-1.3
✕Ylexander Villarroel 2015 · A	18	44	35→30	42→40	36	209/248/266	57	292	2	5	28%	4%	45	-2.7	199/254/262	63	296	3	4	32%	5%	47	-2.5	177/237/231	54	281	2	2	35%	4%	32	-1.1
✕Dalton Blumenfeld 2016 · A	19	44	38→30	51→40	30	181/238/257	76	378	5	7	50%	6%	40	-3.0	178/237/256	78	380	5	5	50%	6%	40	-3.1	95/185/180	86	243	8	0	59%	8%	3	-1.2
✕Devon Torrence 2008 · A	19	50	35→30	48→50	38	172/264/230	58	432	3	10	54%	10%	45	-2.7	172/246/228	56	378	3	7	50%	9%	37	-3.3	96/175/106	10	237	0	4	54%	9%	-18	-1.7
✕Brayan De Pena 2016 · A	18	45	37→30	50→30	33	190/248/265	75	361	3	6	45%	6%	45	-2.7	186/236/266	80	353	6	5	46%	6%	41	-3.0	114/151/173	59	227	7	0	52%	4%	-15	-1.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps