Jacob Edwards

P Dayton Dragons

Age 27 LHP 5'9" / 190 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	22	ROKMIN	2	0	2	0.00	6.60	10.0%	30.0%	—	K 10.0% · BB 30.0% · FIP 6.06
2025	25	ACIN	23	0	49	3.88	2.98	22.0%	9.6%	—	K 16.3% · BB 11.3% · FIP 3.82
2026	26	MIX2 levels	25	1	64	3.64	3.60	19.4%	9.0%	—	K 15.0% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.94
2027PROJ	27	MLBCIN	67	0	70	5.30	5.30	14.2%	12.3%	-0.6
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBCIN	24	0	25	5.25	5.28	15.0%	12.1%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	29	MLBCIN	34	0	36	5.28	5.34	15.4%	12.1%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsStephen Peterson (age 27) · Greg Nappo (age 27) · Eric Jokisch (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%14.2%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%1.9%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	2	0	2	10	1	3	0	0%	1.0	10.0%	30.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.06	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	2	0	2	10	1	3	0	0%	1.0	10.0%	30.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.60	—
2025	25	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	23	0	49	209	46	20	2	0%	2.1	16.3%	11.3%	5.0%	1.2%	3.88	3.82	—
2025	25	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	23	0	49	209	46	20	2	0%	2.1	16.3%	11.3%	5.0%	1.2%	3.88	3.82	—
2025	25	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	23	0	49	209	46	20	2	0%	2.1	22.0%	9.6%	12.4%	1.0%	3.88	2.98	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	1	64	279	54	25	5	4%	2.6	15.0%	10.3%	4.7%	1.5%	3.64	3.94	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	1	64	279	54	25	5	4%	2.6	15.0%	10.3%	4.7%	1.5%	3.64	3.94	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	1	64	279	54	25	5	4%	2.6	19.4%	9.0%	10.4%	1.8%	3.64	3.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CIN	67	0	70	296	42	36	8	0%	1.0	14.2%	12.3%	1.9%	2.7%	5.30	5.30	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	65	0	68	287	43	35	8	0%	1.0	15.0%	12.1%	2.8%	2.8%	5.25	5.28	-0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	CIN	62	0	65	274	42	33	8	0%	1.0	15.4%	12.1%	3.2%	3.0%	5.28	5.34	-0.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	24	0	25	106	16	13	3	0%	1.0	15.0%	12.1%	2.8%	2.8%	5.25	5.28	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	CIN	34	0	36	152	23	18	4	0%	1.1	15.4%	12.1%	3.2%	3.0%	5.28	5.34	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	0	61	256	39	31	7	0%	1.0	15.2%	12.1%	3.1%	2.9%	5.27	4.94	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	129	102	23	0%	1.0	15.2%	12.1%	3.1%	2.9%	5.27	4.94	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		50	1	115	498	77	55	7	2%	2.3	15.5%	11.1%	4.3%	1.3%	3.68	3.93	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	2	200	866	134	96	11	2%	2.3	15.5%	11.1%	4.3%	1.3%	3.68	3.93	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jacob Edwards (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	14.2%	12.3%	2.7%	—	5.31	15.2%	3.0%	133	+0.01	—	—	—
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	89
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	83
Eric Jokisch L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	27	SW	4.64	12.4%	9.6%	2.5%	.330	3.93	15.2%	7.6%	283	-0.71	3.78	427	80
Michael Johnson L 2018 · 5.19 FIP	27	SU	5.19	13.4%	10.0%	3.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	256	79
Heath Murray L 2001 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	14.0%	11.6%	3.6%	.333	6.02	20.0%	7.3%	12	+0.62	4.69	159	78
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	77
Randy Labaut L 2024 · 4.80 FIP	27	SU	4.80	16.0%	12.9%	2.6%	.276	5.15	22.2%	10.9%	37	+0.35	1.91	302	76
Sean Keselica L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	26	SU	4.47	18.0%	14.5%	1.9%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	235	76
Justin Thomas L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	25	SU	4.25	13.1%	10.4%	1.7%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	105	76
Justin Wright L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	26	SU	4.42	14.7%	13.7%	1.5%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.28	109	76
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	76
Ryne Slack L 2018 · 5.59 FIP	26	SU	5.59	13.9%	12.1%	3.9%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	212	76
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	76
Estevan Gonzalez L 2017 · 5.21 FIP	25	SU	5.21	12.1%	13.3%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	195	75
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	75
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	75
Kyle Hunter L 2016 · 4.48 FIP	27	SU	4.48	11.2%	9.9%	1.9%	.295	4.50	14.0%	7.9%	72	+0.02	4.32	188	75
Ben Onyshko L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	26	SU	4.39	16.1%	10.2%	2.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	74
Joey DeNato L 2017 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.3%	15.1%	1.4%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	167	73
Jordan Carr L 2024 · 4.42 FIP	27	SW	4.42	13.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.295	6.61	11.8%	-1.7%	47	+2.19	3.49	269	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	14.8%	12.2%	1.08	5.28
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Jim Winn ('83-'88, -1 WAR*)	1.5	77	15.1%*	11.0%*	1.09*	4.96*
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*