Matt Hickey prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Matt Hickey P Peoria Chiefs

Age 28 RHP 5'11" / 169 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

K%20.7%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	24	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	10	0	11	47	10	4	0	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.5%	12.8%	0.0%	1.64	2.38	—
2022	24	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	10	0	11	47	10	4	0	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.5%	12.8%	0.0%	1.64	2.37	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	27	0	44	194	35	12	2	0%	1.6	13.9%	7.1%	6.8%	1.2%	4.26	3.48	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	27	0	44	194	35	12	2	0%	1.6	13.9%	7.1%	6.8%	1.2%	4.26	3.48	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	27	0	44	194	35	12	2	0%	1.6	18.0%	6.2%	11.9%	1.0%	4.26	2.92	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.7%	8.4%	12.4%	3.0%	4.41	4.41	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	STL	24	0	25	105	22	9	3	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	3.1%	4.48	4.53	+0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	STL	8	0	8	34	7	3	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	3.1%	4.48	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	32	7	3	1	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	3.1%	4.48	4.15	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	80	27	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	3.1%	4.48	4.15	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		37	0	55	241	37	18	2	0%	1.5	15.3%	7.4%	7.9%	0.9%	3.74	3.26	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	0	200	871	134	64	8	0%	1.5	15.3%	7.4%	7.9%	0.9%	3.74	3.26	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Hickey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	20.7%	8.4%	3.0%	—	4.53	20.8%	12.1%	25	+0.12	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	90
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	87
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	86
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	85
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	85
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	85
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	84
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	84
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	83
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	82
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	82
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	82
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	81
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	81
J.J. Putz R 2005 · 4.36 FIP	28	SU	4.36	17.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.270	2.24	31.4%	25.1%	196	-2.12	1.43	563	81
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	81
A.J. Schugel R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	20.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.307	6.37	17.6%	10.6%	13	+2.36	2.80	299	81
Shawn Camp R 2004 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	17.8%	5.2%	3.5%	.305	3.88	15.5%	10.5%	164	-0.30	2.79	589	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	20.8%	8.5%	1.17	4.44
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Randy Flores ('10)	1.2	42	17.7%	9.3%	1.04	4.61
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49