Jackson Kelley

P Birmingham Barons

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	42	0	64	3.11	2.91	31.6%	9.4%	—	K 24.8% · BB 10.7% · FIP 3.95
2025	25	MIX2 levels	23	1	34	2.10	3.10	22.1%	11.7%	—	K 16.1% · BB 14.3% · FIP 4.07
2026	26	MIX2 levels	53	0	79	2.40	2.64	24.8%	8.9%	—	K 21.3% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.17
2027PROJ	27	MLBCWS	39	0	41	4.33	4.33	21.1%	10.3%	0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCWS	14	0	15	4.38	4.41	21.2%	10.3%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsBlake Smith (age 27) · Josh Lueke (age 26) · C.C. Lee (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.33

FIP4.33

K%21.1%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%10.8%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	52	221	77	25	4	0%	1.4	26.5%	13.1%	13.4%	2.3%	4.13	3.80	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	52	221	77	25	4	0%	1.4	34.8%	11.3%	23.5%	1.8%	4.13	2.58	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	64	256	81	24	6	0%	1.5	24.8%	10.7%	14.1%	2.9%	3.11	3.95	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	64	256	81	24	6	0%	1.5	24.8%	10.7%	14.1%	2.9%	3.11	3.95	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	64	256	81	24	6	0%	1.5	31.6%	9.4%	22.3%	2.3%	3.11	2.91	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	1	34	145	32	17	1	4%	1.5	16.1%	14.3%	1.8%	0.9%	2.10	4.07	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	1	34	145	32	17	1	4%	1.5	16.1%	14.3%	1.8%	0.9%	2.10	4.07	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	1	34	145	32	17	1	4%	1.5	22.1%	11.7%	10.3%	0.7%	2.10	3.10	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	79	326	81	29	3	0%	1.5	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	1.2%	2.40	3.17	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	79	326	81	29	3	0%	1.5	21.3%	9.5%	11.8%	1.2%	2.40	3.17	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	79	326	81	29	3	0%	1.5	24.8%	8.9%	16.0%	0.9%	2.40	2.64	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CWS	39	0	41	173	37	18	4	0%	1.1	21.1%	10.3%	10.8%	2.4%	4.33	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	38	0	40	169	36	17	4	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	2.6%	4.38	4.41	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	14	0	15	63	13	7	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	2.6%	4.38	4.41	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	64	13	7	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	2.6%	4.38	4.03	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	93	27	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	2.6%	4.38	4.03	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		156	1	229	948	215	108	18	1%	1.5	22.7%	11.4%	11.3%	1.9%	2.95	3.66	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	1	200	828	188	94	16	1%	1.5	22.7%	11.4%	11.3%	1.9%	2.95	3.66	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Kelley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	21.1%	10.3%	2.4%	—	4.41	21.2%	10.9%	40	+0.08	—	—	—
Blake Smith R 2015 · 3.17 FIP	27	SU	3.17	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.59	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.42	3.17	124	89
Josh Lueke R 2011 · 3.24 FIP	26	SU	3.24	20.4%	8.5%	1.4%	.323	4.75	18.7%	12.4%	52	+1.51	2.29	191	88
C.C. Lee R 2014 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	20.5%	8.7%	2.4%	.310	2.80	25.7%	17.6%	96	-0.97	2.59	149	88
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2011 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	22.1%	9.6%	1.5%	.253	3.18	22.9%	13.4%	218	-0.10	2.72	398	88
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	88
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	87
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	86
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	86
Cole Sulser R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	22.6%	10.2%	1.9%	.321	2.85	28.2%	18.4%	140	-0.67	2.38	554	86
Chuck King R 2024 · 3.17 FIP	26	SU	3.17	19.4%	9.9%	0.8%	.308	4.25	15.8%	8.7%	256	+1.08	3.17	294	86
Brandon Gomes R 2011 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	20.0%	10.0%	1.9%	.284	4.17	22.3%	15.2%	71	+0.43	3.48	190	86
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	86
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	86
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	85
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	85
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	85
Drew Hayes R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	27	SU	3.35	19.5%	11.2%	0.9%	.333	3.99	13.8%	3.7%	59	+0.64	3.35	117	85
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	85
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	85
Nick Altermatt R 2024 · 3.39 FIP	24	SU	3.39	21.2%	9.5%	1.6%	.282	3.78	20.0%	13.0%	95	+0.39	2.20	144	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	41	21.1%	10.3%	0.96	4.35
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*