Hunter Dollander prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Hunter Dollander P Birmingham Barons

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 232 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%20.8%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	10	66	265	73	12	7	71%	4.7	19.2%	5.7%	13.5%	3.1%	3.68	3.92	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	10	66	265	73	12	7	71%	4.7	27.5%	4.5%	23.0%	2.6%	3.68	2.81	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	3	51	256	57	42	11	11%	1.9	17.6%	18.3%	-0.8%	5.2%	7.71	6.77	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	3	51	256	57	42	11	11%	1.9	17.6%	18.3%	-0.8%	5.2%	7.71	6.77	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	3	51	256	57	42	11	11%	1.9	22.3%	16.4%	5.9%	4.3%	7.71	6.12	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	13.5%	7.3%	3.1%	5.13	5.13	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CWS	32	0	33	140	29	19	5	0%	1.0	20.7%	13.4%	7.4%	3.3%	5.16	5.23	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	CWS	10	0	10	42	9	6	1	0%	1.0	20.7%	13.4%	7.4%	3.3%	5.16	5.23	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	44	9	6	1	0%	1.0	20.7%	13.4%	7.4%	3.3%	5.16	4.85	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	174	116	19	0%	1.1	20.7%	13.4%	7.4%	3.3%	5.16	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		41	13	117	521	96	62	21	32%	2.9	18.4%	11.9%	6.5%	4.1%	5.45	5.32	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	22	200	888	163	106	37	32%	2.9	18.4%	11.9%	6.5%	4.1%	5.45	5.32	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hunter Dollander (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	20.8%	13.5%	3.1%	—	5.23	20.7%	7.4%	33	+0.10	—	—	—
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	236	70
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	69
André Rienzo R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	29	SW	4.40	18.9%	15.6%	1.7%	.301	5.33	17.9%	6.1%	29	+0.93	3.53	321	69
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	69
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	68
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	68
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	68
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	67
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	67
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	67
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	67
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	67
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	67
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	67
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	66
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	66
Brad Allen R 2016 · 5.82 FIP	27	SW	5.82	14.7%	13.2%	4.2%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	149	66
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	66
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	66
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	20.8%	13.4%	1.24	5.14
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88