Jay Allmer
P
Greenville Drive
Age 24
RHP
6'5" / 215 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 164155vR 146
ERA6.51
FIP6.51
K%10.0%
BB%18.6%
K-BB%-8.6%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 54 | 215 | 30 | 33 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 10.1% | 17.2% | -7.1% | 0.8% | 2.85 | 4.87 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 0 | 54 | 215 | 30 | 33 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 14.0% | 15.3% | -1.4% | 0.5% | 2.85 | 4.07 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 23 | 0 | 37 | 200 | 31 | 45 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 12.3% | 25.8% | -13.5% | 4.7% | 9.64 | 7.91 | -1.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BOS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 28 | 53 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 10.0% | 18.6% | -8.6% | 2.8% | 6.51 | 6.51 | -1.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.0% | 18.6% | -8.6% | 2.8% | 6.51 | 6.51 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 105 | 484 | 59 | 98 | 15 | — | — | 12.3% | 20.2% | -7.9% | 3.1% | 7.63 | 7.01 | -2.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 10.0% | 18.6% | -8.6% | 2.8% | 6.51 | 6.13 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 37 | 48 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.9% | 16.7% | -3.8% | 2.8% | 6.13 | 6.02 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 42 | 46 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.7% | 16.1% | -1.4% | 2.8% | 5.89 | 5.81 | -0.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 43 | 45 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.1% | 15.8% | -0.7% | 2.9% | 5.79 | 5.77 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 16 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.9% | 16.7% | -3.8% | 2.8% | 6.13 | 6.02 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 28 | 31 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.7% | 16.1% | -1.4% | 2.8% | 5.89 | 5.81 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 33 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.1% | 15.8% | -0.7% | 2.9% | 5.79 | 5.77 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 0 | 127 | 534 | 77 | 86 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.4% | 16.1% | -1.7% | 2.8% | 5.91 | 5.47 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 122 | 136 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.4% | 16.1% | -1.7% | 2.8% | 5.91 | 5.47 | -0.2 | ||
| Career | — | 52 | 0 | 91 | 415 | 46 | 89 | 11 | 0% | 1.8 | 11.1% | 21.4% | -10.2% | 2.7% | 5.64 | 6.33 | -1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 114 | 0 | 200 | 912 | 102 | 195 | 24 | 0% | 1.8 | 11.1% | 21.4% | -10.2% | 2.7% | 5.64 | 6.33 | -2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jay Allmer (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.51 | 10.0% | 18.6% | 2.8% | — | 5.87 | 14.2% | -2.0% | 203 | -0.64 | — | — | — |
| Dylan Rheault R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.57 | 6.5% | 14.9% | 2.1% | .288 | 4.14 | 14.1% | 4.8% | 96 | -1.43 | 3.96 | 198 | 88 |
| Johendí Jiminian R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.45 | 11.5% | 14.0% | 2.8% | .300 | 4.85 | 13.9% | 3.6% | 164 | -0.60 | 3.93 | 419 | 83 |
| Tom Reisinger R 2026 · 6.70 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.70 | 10.3% | 15.9% | 4.5% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.25 | 110 | 80 |
| Conner O'Neil R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.58 | 12.8% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .340 | 7.24 | 16.4% | 4.1% | 26 | +1.66 | 2.90 | 115 | 80 |
| Josh Harlow R 2026 · 5.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.71 | 17.1% | 21.3% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.52 | 107 | 80 |
| Carlos Polanco R 2025 · 5.37 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.37 | 13.9% | 20.0% | 1.7% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 276 | 80 |
| Luke Savage R 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.70 | 15.0% | 17.7% | 3.0% | .358 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 117 | 79 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 79 |
| Kelvin Vasquez R 2026 · 6.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.27 | 15.0% | 23.2% | 2.7% | .247 | 5.23 | 14.5% | -0.2% | 48 | -1.04 | 4.80 | 180 | 79 |
| Darvin Garcia R 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.93 | 13.4% | 19.6% | 2.7% | .277 | 4.87 | 15.5% | -3.1% | 80 | -1.06 | 2.97 | 212 | 79 |
| Abel Brito R 2025 · 6.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.54 | 14.0% | 23.6% | 3.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 147 | 78 |
| Jake Gozzo R 2026 · 7.15 FIP | 24 | SU | 7.15 | 14.3% | 30.2% | 2.6% | .200 | 5.29 | 15.8% | -0.7% | 129 | -1.86 | 4.29 | 162 | 78 |
| Jairo Beras R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.32 | 15.0% | 20.3% | 1.7% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 110 | 78 |
| Jake Ehret R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.62 | 12.3% | 15.8% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 173 | 78 |
| Dallas Woolfolk R 2026 · 6.39 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.39 | 12.9% | 21.9% | 2.9% | .324 | 5.21 | 14.0% | 0.7% | 50 | -1.18 | 5.21 | 100 | 77 |
| Leandro Linares R 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.59 | 16.2% | 22.0% | 2.0% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.93 | 134 | 77 |
| Yordy Cabrera R 2027 · 5.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.43 | 15.8% | 17.2% | 2.7% | .321 | 4.31 | 13.7% | 2.7% | 140 | -1.12 | 3.48 | 159 | 77 |
| Audry Lugo R 2025 · 5.73 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.73 | 13.7% | 16.3% | 3.1% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.05 | 113 | 77 |
| Roman Phansalkar R 2026 · 6.68 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.68 | 13.5% | 18.4% | 4.3% | .245 | 4.87 | 17.4% | 4.0% | 147 | -1.81 | 4.31 | 164 | 77 |
| Nicholas Regalado R 2025 · 5.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.62 | 15.0% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 132 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 13.2% | 16.8% | 1.08 | 6.08 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |