Jay Allmer — OGILVIE

Jay Allmer P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 215 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 60 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 163155vR 147

ERA6.85

FIP6.85

K%10.0%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-10.0%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2020

CTRL2525

CMD2020

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	54	215	30	33	1	0%	1.9	10.1%	17.2%	-7.1%	0.7%	2.85	4.82	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	54	215	30	33	1	0%	1.9	10.1%	17.2%	-7.1%	0.7%	2.85	4.82	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	54	215	30	33	1	0%	1.9	14.0%	15.3%	-1.4%	0.5%	2.85	4.07	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	39	219	33	49	7	0%	1.5	11.9%	25.8%	-13.9%	4.3%	10.30	7.69	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	39	219	33	49	7	0%	1.5	11.9%	25.8%	-13.9%	4.3%	10.30	7.69	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	0	39	219	33	49	7	0%	1.5	15.1%	22.4%	-7.3%	3.2%	10.30	7.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BOS	57	0	60	253	25	51	8	0%	1.1	10.0%	20.0%	-10.0%	3.1%	6.85	6.85	-1.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	57	0	60	251	32	47	8	0%	1.0	12.7%	18.9%	-6.1%	3.1%	6.52	6.47	-1.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	BOS	56	0	59	247	33	45	8	0%	1.0	13.5%	18.2%	-4.7%	3.1%	6.35	6.35	-1.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	25	0	26	110	14	21	3	0%	1.0	12.7%	18.9%	-6.1%	3.1%	6.52	6.47	-0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	BOS	35	0	37	156	21	28	5	0%	1.1	13.5%	18.2%	-4.7%	3.1%	6.35	6.35	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	264	35	49	8	0%	1.1	13.2%	18.5%	-5.3%	3.1%	6.42	6.02	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	112	157	26	0%	1.1	13.2%	18.5%	-5.3%	3.1%	6.42	6.02	-3.4
Career	—	MLE		55	0	93	434	48	93	11	0%	1.7	11.0%	21.5%	-10.5%	2.5%	6.00	6.27	-2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	0	200	933	103	201	23	0%	1.7	11.0%	21.5%	-10.5%	2.5%	6.00	6.27	-4.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jay Allmer (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.85	10.0%	20.0%	3.1%	—	6.41	13.1%	-5.4%	118	-0.44	—	—	—
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	83
Tommy DeJuneas R 2021 · 5.65 FIP	25	SU	5.65	13.7%	17.6%	2.7%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	178	81
German Taveras R 2016 · 6.41 FIP	23	SU	6.41	10.9%	15.7%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	108	79
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	79
Carlos Polanco R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	23	SU	5.71	13.9%	20.0%	2.3%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	276	77
Miguel Alfonseca R 2024 · 7.06 FIP	24	SU	7.06	9.7%	18.0%	4.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	123	77
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	77
Frankie De La Cruz R 2008 · 7.16 FIP	24	SW	7.16	7.5%	20.8%	3.8%	.361	2.87	16.4%	7.3%	13	-4.29	2.87	262	77
Edward Baram R 2022 · 6.38 FIP	25	SU	6.38	11.8%	18.3%	3.6%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	119	77
Jarod Wright R 2022 · 5.73 FIP	25	SU	5.73	12.7%	13.2%	3.7%	.282	4.46	13.2%	3.8%	53	-1.27	4.46	170	76
Dallas Woolfolk R 2021 · 6.62 FIP	24	SU	6.62	12.9%	21.9%	3.3%	.324	5.12	14.0%	0.7%	50	-1.50	5.12	100	76
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	76
Danny Cody R 2022 · 6.32 FIP	25	SU	6.32	11.4%	18.3%	3.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	6.32	106	75
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	75
Audry Lugo R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	23	SU	5.76	13.7%	16.3%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	113	75
Evan Meek R 2008 · 6.91 FIP	25	SU	6.91	11.5%	16.4%	4.9%	.195	3.44	20.9%	10.4%	148	-3.47	3.13	234	75
Blake Hickman R 2018 · 6.57 FIP	24	SW	6.57	12.9%	17.8%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	156	74
Damon Casetta-Stubbs R 2022 · 6.77 FIP	23	SU	6.77	10.5%	17.0%	4.4%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	122	74
Tim Elliott R 2023 · 6.21 FIP	25	SU	6.21	15.5%	16.1%	4.3%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	5.54	138	73
Kris Hall R 2016 · 7.01 FIP	25	SU	7.01	12.7%	20.5%	4.3%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.63	106	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	12.1%	19.0%	1.19	6.57
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37