Davison Palermo

P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+COL	34	0	40	4.95	4.47	21.1%	9.7%	—	K 16.3% · BB 11.2% · FIP 5.31
2025	25	MIX2 levels	46	0	68	3.31	3.76	25.3%	10.1%	—	K 19.6% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.74
2026	26	AACOL	35	2	68	6.45	4.24	24.7%	12.2%	—	K 20.0% · BB 13.4% · FIP 5.06
2027PROJ	27	MLBCOL	67	0	70	5.02	5.02	20.3%	11.9%	-0.4
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCOL	25	0	26	5.00	5.03	20.5%	11.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBCOL	34	0	36	5.04	5.11	20.5%	11.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control50Command55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRicky Stone (age 27) · Spencer Bivens (age 28) · Cody Tucker (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%20.3%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%8.3%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	2	0	1	7	2	2	1	0%	0.7	28.6%	28.6%	0.0%	14.3%	6.75	12.15	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	2	0	1	7	2	2	1	0%	0.7	28.6%	28.6%	0.0%	14.3%	6.75	14.35	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	38	0	43	191	49	20	4	0%	1.1	19.0%	12.4%	6.6%	2.3%	4.36	4.32	—
2023	23	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	38	0	43	191	49	20	4	0%	1.1	25.7%	10.5%	15.2%	2.1%	4.36	3.42	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	34	0	40	175	37	17	6	0%	1.2	16.3%	11.2%	5.1%	3.9%	4.95	5.31	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	34	0	40	175	37	17	6	0%	1.2	16.3%	11.2%	5.1%	3.9%	4.95	5.31	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	34	0	40	175	37	17	6	0%	1.2	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	3.4%	4.95	4.47	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	68	288	73	29	8	0%	1.5	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.4%	3.31	4.74	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	68	288	73	29	8	0%	1.5	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.4%	3.31	4.74	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	68	288	73	29	8	0%	1.5	25.3%	10.1%	15.3%	2.8%	3.31	3.76	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	35	2	68	304	75	37	9	6%	2.0	20.0%	13.4%	6.6%	3.6%	6.45	5.06	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	35	2	68	304	75	37	9	6%	2.0	20.0%	13.4%	6.6%	3.6%	6.45	5.06	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	35	2	68	304	75	37	9	6%	2.0	24.7%	12.2%	12.5%	3.0%	6.45	4.24	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	COL	67	0	70	296	60	35	9	0%	1.0	20.3%	11.9%	8.3%	3.2%	5.02	5.02	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	COL	65	0	68	287	59	34	9	0%	1.0	20.5%	11.8%	8.7%	3.2%	5.00	5.03	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	COL	62	0	65	274	56	32	9	0%	1.0	20.5%	11.8%	8.6%	3.4%	5.04	5.11	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	COL	25	0	26	110	22	13	4	0%	1.0	20.5%	11.8%	8.7%	3.2%	5.00	5.03	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	COL	34	0	36	152	31	18	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	11.8%	8.6%	3.4%	5.04	5.11	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	260	53	31	9	0%	1.0	20.5%	11.8%	8.6%	3.3%	5.02	4.70	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	101	29	0%	1.1	20.5%	11.8%	8.6%	3.3%	5.02	4.70	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		155	2	221	965	184	119	33	1%	1.4	19.1%	12.3%	6.8%	3.4%	4.81	4.91	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	2	200	873	167	107	30	1%	1.4	19.1%	12.3%	6.8%	3.4%	4.81	4.91	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Davison Palermo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	20.3%	11.9%	3.2%	—	5.07	20.5%	8.6%	133	+0.05	—	—	—
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	87
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	87
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	87
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	87
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	86
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	86
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	86
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	85
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	85
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	85
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	84
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	84
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	83
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	83
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	83
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	83
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	82
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	27	SU	4.76	23.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.18	3.73	223	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	20.4%	11.9%	1.26	5.02
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*