Christian Becerra

P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	AMIN	2	0	4	0.00	3.37	25.0%	18.8%	—	K 25.0% · BB 18.8% · FIP 3.36
2025	22	MIX2 levels	15	9	54	2.85	2.93	16.0%	7.3%	—	K 11.0% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.75
2026	23	A+MIN	33	1	48	6.75	4.54	19.6%	11.7%	—	K 15.1% · BB 13.5% · FIP 5.33
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIN	54	0	57	5.85	5.85	11.9%	13.9%	-0.8
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIN	24	0	25	5.59	5.52	14.3%	13.0%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBMIN	36	0	38	5.42	5.36	15.7%	12.7%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff25Control45Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJohendí Jiminian (age 24) · Dylan Rheault (age 23) · Kender Villegas (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.85

FIP5.85

K%11.9%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%-2.1%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL4545

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	0	4	16	4	3	0	0%	1.8	25.0%	18.8%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.36	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	0	4	16	4	3	0	0%	1.8	25.0%	18.8%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.36	—
2024	21	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	2	0	4	16	4	3	0	0%	1.8	25.0%	18.8%	6.2%	0.0%	0.00	3.37	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	9	54	219	35	16	1	60%	3.6	11.0%	9.3%	1.6%	0.7%	2.85	3.75	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	9	54	219	35	16	1	60%	3.6	11.0%	9.3%	1.6%	0.7%	2.85	3.75	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	9	54	219	35	16	1	60%	3.6	16.0%	7.3%	8.7%	0.5%	2.85	2.93	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	33	1	48	230	45	27	6	3%	1.5	15.1%	13.5%	1.6%	3.3%	6.75	5.33	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	33	1	48	230	45	27	6	3%	1.5	15.1%	13.5%	1.6%	3.3%	6.75	5.33	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	33	1	48	230	45	27	6	3%	1.5	19.6%	11.7%	7.8%	2.6%	6.75	4.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIN	54	0	57	241	29	34	7	0%	1.1	11.9%	13.9%	-2.1%	2.9%	5.85	5.85	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	55	0	58	244	35	32	7	0%	1.1	14.3%	13.0%	1.3%	2.9%	5.59	5.52	-0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	55	0	58	244	38	31	7	0%	1.1	15.7%	12.7%	3.1%	2.9%	5.42	5.36	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	24	0	25	106	15	14	3	0%	1.0	14.3%	13.0%	1.3%	2.9%	5.59	5.52	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	36	0	38	160	25	20	5	0%	1.1	15.7%	12.7%	3.1%	2.9%	5.42	5.36	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	40	34	8	0%	1.1	15.2%	12.8%	2.4%	2.9%	5.49	5.05	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	126	108	25	0%	1.1	15.2%	12.8%	2.4%	2.9%	5.49	5.05	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		50	10	105	465	63	55	9	20%	2.1	13.5%	11.7%	1.8%	2.0%	4.53	4.52	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	19	200	883	119	104	17	20%	2.1	13.5%	11.7%	1.8%	2.0%	4.53	4.52	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Becerra (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.85	11.9%	13.9%	2.9%	—	5.44	15.0%	2.2%	116	-0.41	—	—	—
Johendí Jiminian R 2017 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	11.5%	14.0%	3.3%	.300	4.77	13.9%	3.6%	164	-0.93	4.01	419	90
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	88
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	86
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	86
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	84
Miguel Nunez R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	24	SU	5.12	13.2%	13.7%	2.6%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	154	83
Victor Santos R 2001 · 4.97 FIP	24	SW	4.97	15.5%	13.4%	2.7%	.231	4.38	16.4%	7.4%	206	-0.59	4.09	602	83
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	83
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	82
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	82
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	82
Claudio Custodio R 2015 · 5.31 FIP	24	SU	5.31	11.1%	13.2%	2.7%	.351	3.79	11.5%	4.8%	37	-1.52	3.08	186	82
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	82
James Pugliese R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	24	SW	4.72	12.5%	11.6%	2.2%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	2.52	218	82
Austin Amaral R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	12.1%	14.4%	3.7%	.254	3.55	18.6%	6.3%	113	-2.39	3.53	136	82
Parker Markel R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	13.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.313	3.18	15.9%	6.2%	61	-1.49	3.18	266	81
Logan Sendelbach R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	24	SU	5.31	12.3%	13.9%	2.7%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	340	81
Rafael Dolis R 2012 · 5.19 FIP	24	SU	5.19	13.9%	12.7%	3.0%	.287	4.02	15.8%	1.5%	66	-1.17	2.80	200	81
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	81
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	14.0%	13.2%	1.13	5.62
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*